Topic: Analysis - page 266. (Read 941596 times)
I can't shake the feeling that we're getting nearer to the end of the consolidation/bear market, but on the other hand it looks to me like we might have a re-test of 600 ahead of us.
2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.
First:
Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.
My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.
Then again:
It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.
These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.
I would be very surprised to see a daily close below 550 on stamp. I agree we could stagnate close here for a little while until we come in contact with the SMA 200 however.
2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.
First:
Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.
My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.
Then again:
It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.
These are pretty much my thoughts exactly. However, I do think we are destined to test the 200 SMA on Bitstamp. It sits just over $450 today and will be at $500 within a couple of weeks and $550 in 4-5 weeks or so. So, while I think that long term trendline might tell us something about where we are going in the future, I think we probably break down below it for at least a little bit, unless Stamp can fend off a flash crash over the next 4-5 weeks.
2 parallel channels and a sort of speculative trend.
First:
Don't get hung up about the 'red circle' wick. I know it's outside the channel, but you know, parallel channel lends it a bit of extra credibility yadda yadda.
My point being: There's a chance we're going back into the orange channel, which is not quite as terrible as the red one, but slowly grinding downwards. In other words, before declaring this bear market as being over I need to see some more evidence.
Then again:
It's a speculative one, I know. But don't dismiss completely out of hand, 3 pretty clear points of contact, and some decent volume going along with them. This could, perhaps, maybe, just saying, mark the bottom of our correction.
I see some signs of short term reversal (my last pic above plus this one). Of course price performance on mtgox is more than disturbing. So be cautious.
Don´t forget Bitfinex(100$), so far 3 out of 4(5) exchanges, wen´t down hard.
If the bitfinex book had been connected to Bitstamp at that time, we might have seen 2-400$ Bitcoins over there too.
If the bitfinex book had been connected to Bitstamp at that time, we might have seen 2-400$ Bitcoins over there too.
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.
Hmm I do agree, which is a shame as I think there is a lot of good discussion in this thread. Forgetting about the btce incident and the Gox mess, there are still a lot of TA signs pointing to a continued bear market.
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.
+1
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
Quote from: masterluc
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Official bears taking the Gox price and a forced liquidation price in a illiquid market seriously. You can't get more contrarian signs than that.
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.I think it was a cascade of forced liquidation trough the MT4 platform.
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.Just looking at the chart tells you that was a freak straight off!
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then.Just looking at the chart tells you that was a freak straight off!
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Good point. Do we know that it was NOT the result of a liquidation (I heard btc-e offers leverage) or a hacked account? I would take it much more seriously then. Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
Yeah but BTC-e broke it days ago.
Also Gox went to near-zero in the past.
Today is a reflection of Gox the company - everyone knows that (hopefully).
In a sense we are watching a company going bankrupt minute by minute; under normal circumstances not many people could watch such a situation unfold in such painful detail. But this is being broadcast live to the world!
You copy and paste from the other thread; I follow.
266 was broken on btce and mtgox. More than obvious overlap
Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started
I find the lack of triangles in this thread disturbing 
When last a continuation pattern appeared after a major drop ($1.2K to $570) it turned out to be false and broke to the upside. However, this one seems to have a clear bearish bias. Hell if you compensate for the first drop a bit it becomes a descending triangle.
Based on my noobish TA then this means Gox is dropping even lower very soon. Interested to see how it plays out, and how low it's gonna go.
When last a continuation pattern appeared after a major drop ($1.2K to $570) it turned out to be false and broke to the upside. However, this one seems to have a clear bearish bias. Hell if you compensate for the first drop a bit it becomes a descending triangle.
Based on my noobish TA then this means Gox is dropping even lower very soon. Interested to see how it plays out, and how low it's gonna go.
Emergency warning to S3052 subscribers. Today I got email with their full credentials
File was already removed from this site, but it can be a trojan or something like that.
When I compared this email with their previous email headers, I found them both very similar. So I made conclusion that at least S3052 admin panel was compromised and attacker has ability to send arbitrary updates to their subscribers directly from S3052 server with valid DKIM signatures and so on.
Quote
"Adam has shared a secure document with you via CloudDock.
>
> A special report about what is really going on behind the scenes at MtGox
> and Bitstamp, and what it will mean for the short and long term price.
> Provided to you as part of your DigitalCurrencyResearch.com (Bitcoin
> BullBear) membership.
>
> [image: Document] Inside Details Behind
> MtGox/Bitstamp<
> xttps://authiy.com/gp/?token=764dee088ab3f82410458602248d71c6 [DO NOT CLICK[
>
>
> A special report about what is really going on behind the scenes at MtGox
> and Bitstamp, and what it will mean for the short and long term price.
> Provided to you as part of your DigitalCurrencyResearch.com (Bitcoin
> BullBear) membership.
>
> [image: Document] Inside Details Behind
> MtGox/Bitstamp<
> xttps://authiy.com/gp/?token=764dee088ab3f82410458602248d71c6 [DO NOT CLICK[
>
File was already removed from this site, but it can be a trojan or something like that.
When I compared this email with their previous email headers, I found them both very similar. So I made conclusion that at least S3052 admin panel was compromised and attacker has ability to send arbitrary updates to their subscribers directly from S3052 server with valid DKIM signatures and so on.
Mt Gox is no longer a good metric for bitcoin price IMHO. That said it is not meaningless. Gox still matters, and it might just drag us down with itself.
Not in the least. I think Gox has been relatively invalid for quite a while. But it is currently like another planet with its own economy reflected by the sentiment that it may be insolvent. Things ARE different now.
According to ADX and SAR here may be some rebound.
btce and mtgox pictures are too scary to show to bulls.
Also sma200 wasn't touched yet on bitstamp. I'm surprised (more downside?).
btce and mtgox pictures are too scary to show to bulls.
Also sma200 wasn't touched yet on bitstamp. I'm surprised (more downside?).
Jump to: