Analysis - page 273. | Bitcointalksearch.org

aminorex

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Quote from: Queeq on January 14, 2014, 04:41:25 PM

The last graph is exactly what I meant by saying "trend change". It does not need to reverse for the change to be counted. It could be accelerating so the double logarithmic scale shows it more precisely.

On the finer time scales, linear analysis seems to fit the trend lines quite well. Zoom out a bit, and logarithmic analysis becomes unavoidable. Zoom out to the limits of history and log(log(x)) analysis begins to become compelling. Each of these changes of scale can be interpreted as encapsulating a larger range of changes in the trading regime, the modality of the trend.

Queeq

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The last graph is exactly what I meant by saying "trend change". It does not need to reverse for the change to be counted. It could be accelerating so the double logarithmic scale shows it more precisely.

aminorex

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Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 04:17:53 PM

to be honest,I can not see that the log(log(X) Chart [the greenish line] ist more correct.

It is more correct in as much as the R^2 value is significantly, substantially, closer to 1. I would if I had more time draw the regression bands on a log(log)-linear chart, but I really shouldn't be doing that right now.

segeln

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Quote from: aminorex on January 14, 2014, 03:58:14 PM

On a log chart, the 90 trend base is fair dinkum. On a log(log(x)) chart it is not. The godmodetrader.de analysis is all predicated on the predictive quality of the log(x) chart. If it is not credible, then the obvious alternative appears to be that the log(log(x)) chart is the correct one for analysis.

Quote

could you display the Chart in log(log(x) please,so we can discuss it

to be honest,I can not see that the log(log(X) Chart [the greenish line] ist more correct.

aminorex

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Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 04:04:04 PM

Quote from: aminorex on January 14, 2014, 03:58:14 PM

On a log chart, the 90 trend base is fair dinkum. On a log(log(x)) chart it is not. The godmodetrader.de analysis is all predicated on the predictive quality of the log(x) chart. If it is not credible, then the obvious alternative appears to be that the log(log(x)) chart is the correct one for analysis.

could you display the Chart in log(log(x) please,so we can discuss it

From another thread:

Quote from: ?? on ??

segeln

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Quote from: aminorex on January 14, 2014, 03:58:14 PM

On a log chart, the 90 trend base is fair dinkum. On a log(log(x)) chart it is not. The godmodetrader.de analysis is all predicated on the predictive quality of the log(x) chart. If it is not credible, then the obvious alternative appears to be that the log(log(x)) chart is the correct one for analysis.

could you display the Chart in log(log(x) please,so we can discuss it

aminorex

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On a log chart, the 90 trend base is fair dinkum. On a log(log(x)) chart it is not. The godmodetrader.de analysis is all predicated on the predictive quality of the log(x) chart. If it is not credible, then the obvious alternative appears to be that the log(log(x)) chart is the correct one for analysis.

bambou

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 02:21:18 PM

Quote from: Miz4r on January 14, 2014, 11:43:08 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 09:52:03 AM

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

Perhaps you are right, I wasn't around back then and don't really know what it was like, but that was just an example.

Another, perhaps more realistic, example is the latest crash, where so far I've managed to double the fiat value I had at the top. A little help from lucif signalling that it was indeed a crash, prompting me to sell at the immediate bounce back from the China news drop and change my mindset to a bearish one, did help initially, but otherwise I've relied on comparative analysis as well as drawing patterns and seeing which side they break at to estimate where the price is heading and where it will stop.

Honestly, if I can manage this while still only learning TA using these noob methods, I believe any trader worth his salt would be able to do it at least as well, probably far better.

+1 thats the plan. and i believe most people in here have the 'brain potential' to do so (and are actually succeeding at it and in general). if they dont, hodling is the way.

edit: a wise plan would also include not to trade 100% of your BTCs Grin

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: Miz4r on January 14, 2014, 11:43:08 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 09:52:03 AM

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

Perhaps you are right, I wasn't around back then and don't really know what it was like, but that was just an example.

Another, perhaps more realistic, example is the latest crash, where so far I've managed to double the fiat value I had at the top. A little help from lucif signalling that it was indeed a crash, prompting me to sell at the immediate bounce back from the China news drop and change my mindset to a bearish one, did help initially, but otherwise I've relied on comparative analysis as well as drawing patterns and seeing which side they break at to estimate where the price is heading and where it will stop.

Honestly, if I can manage this while still only learning TA using these noob methods, I believe any trader worth his salt would be able to do it at least as well, probably far better.

pinky

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Quote from: Miz4r on January 14, 2014, 11:43:08 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 09:52:03 AM

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

+1

It's easy to trade when you are certain about direction of the market. Trading in 2013 was very easy. But there will come the time, when old habits won't work anymore and most of the profits of so called "traders" will be gone.

Miz4r

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 09:52:03 AM

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.

I don't think so, only in hindsight everything looks so easy. I don't think many traders were able to increase their btc holdings during the 2011 bear market, or at least not for long before they sold again.

segeln

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 14, 2014, 09:52:03 AM

..However, you can also choose to recognize the subtrends and attempt to play them to your advantage.
Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.
All the while the perma-bull holder, while getting a good amount of profit in the long run, could've made so much more had he not chosen to blind himself to the subtrends.

I think you got an important point:
longterm Investor or day-or week-trader.
The discussion of my exposed Chart shows that a lot of People are short-term biased You see it here in the forum in people exposing Charts of Minute-,hour -time periods
but you know as well,subtrend-trading is dangerous because

Quote

"the trend is your friend"

I personally prefer hodling.
Saves my nerves

P.S.:Sell high and buy low or vice versa, whatever you prefer.
or:
buy low sell high,
some do it the other way round but i disagree with that. Grin

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 09:11:43 AM

you are right with the date.
and you are right,at that time it was a bear market.
But the market evolved in a longtime bull-market
But you have to distinguish different Terms of trend.
First you have a general/prevailing main trend. Inside this trend you can have many subtrends. Changing from bullish to bearish and vice versa.And lateral movenments,we are just in.
The presented Chart is a General and since 2011 prevailing Main-Trend

I'm no expert, but here's a sheep's humble opinion: Sure, I agree, long term historic trend with bitcoin is definitely bullish, and you can just hold throughout with a high probability of earning money regardless (until the day the trend changes, nothing can keep growing forever). However, you can also choose to recognize the subtrends and attempt to play them to your advantage.

Take the 2011 "subtrend bear market" for example; a 98% drop meant that a very skilled (and very lucky) trader would be able to increase his longer term coin holdings by a tenfold if not more. Hell, even a noob trader like me would be able to at the very least double or triple his amount of coins with relative ease by just selling early on and buying back later.
All the while the perma-bull holder, while getting a good amount of profit in the long run, could've made so much more had he not chosen to blind himself to the subtrends.

segeln

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Quote from: Queeq on January 14, 2014, 09:39:03 AM

segeln, why do you think trend doesn't change on such a big timeframe?

the underlying trend is prevailing.
ofcourse it could change. i never said I think the trend will never change .But at this time I don`t see any reasons why it should and could change.
Do you see any reasons for changing the main trend ?

Queeq

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segeln, why do you think trend doesn't change on such a big timeframe?

segeln

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Quote from: Tzupy on January 14, 2014, 08:49:31 AM

Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 08:02:01 AM

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

you are right with the date.
and you are right,at that time it was a bear market.
But the market evolved in a longtime bull-market
But you have to distinguish different Terms of trend.
First you have a general/prevailing main trend. Inside this trend you can have many subtrends. Changing from bullish to bearish and vice versa.And lateral movenments,we are just in.
The presented Chart is a General and since 2011 prevailing Main-Trend

bambou

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Quote from: Tzupy on January 14, 2014, 08:49:31 AM

Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 08:02:01 AM

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

Nope, there was no large drop in May 2011, it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

i would agree that it all come down to the time scale.

edit: and i kinda feel the "bearishness" around right now (and despite all the good vibes around BTC).. hence certainly not buying yet.

Tzupy

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Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 08:02:01 AM

Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !

Nope, there was no large drop in May 2011, it was from ~32$ in June to ~2$ in October, and that's a 94% drop.
And if that wasn't a bear market, then your terminology is weird.

bambou

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me and my friend with whom i invested in bitcoin

which one am I?! Grin

segeln

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Quote from: piramida on January 14, 2014, 08:24:01 AM

this is the chart I also draw -

well done , piramida

Topic: Analysis - page 273. (Read 941596 times)