Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.
Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.
The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?
You mean this? I've seen all this before, that's why I keep trying to tell you guys; I have been a victim of this in the past too. Latter 2011 and 2012 were likely the most productive times of Bitcoin, yet it was the worst of times for their value.
Here is another way to look at this: Adoption and price aren't inextricably linked. Look at the price of the NASDAQ (still off its highs from 14 years ago) and the adoption of the internet.
And you were right back then (and are still right about it) that the possibility that BTC price goes into a year-long stagnation, or even decline, exists. Which is essentially what lucif alluded to as well. And earlier in this thread (IIRC) I agreed with you on that possibility having a non-zero chance, and that the bulls who react with serious aggressiveness to the mere mentioning of this possibility are in for some serious pain if that event ever unfolds.
If that event unfolds.
To me it's far from certain that this will be happening. Luc has his EW theory based arguments (and I find them pretty unconvincing on such a long time scale). What's your evidence? That we're still consolidating, possibly on an overall downward slope (although that part would already be contentious.), less than 2 months after the post-ATH-double top?
Here's what the long decline of 2011, and the long time between ATHs looked like on a log scale, plus the 30d EMA for getting a smoother view of how it unfolded:
And here's what our current post-ATH situation looks like, same time scale:
I don't know about what you see in that chart, but unless you're willing to draw grand conclusions about the future based on EW waves that span years, I see little evidence that we're on a trajectory to such a long decline.
I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.
I'm not ruling it out either, but I'm as sceptical about those who claim we'll see such a long bear market as I am about those who reject the possibility of that same bear market purely because it doesn't fit their greedy delusion of where BTC price should go.
