Topic: Analysis - page 277. (Read 941596 times)

Don't want to quote multiple etc.  About the replies to my previous post:

windjc - yes, that is what I basically saying.  sure sometimes it's accurate, but so is guessing.  it's the times of relative saturation that it should be more predictive, however, those are times when there is the least volatility as well so it's largely a moot point.

honeybadger - manipulation and self-fulfilling is legitimate, those whales are long-term bulls however, so do you apply a discount to the probability of supposed down movements and increased likelihood of upward movements in the TA analysis? 

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless. The points mentioned are indeed fundamentals, and it's irrelevant, because TA should encapsulate fundamentals, or it's not doing its job very well.

The point about self-fulfilling prophecies is also not as adequate in this environment.  Again, it's just beginning the saturation process.  So, you have TA followers, blind new buyers awaiting verification to buy their stash and move on with their lives, and whales manipulating the market with bullish intent.  A TA seller awaiting a lower price back down to the .236 fib, will very quickly be forced to rebuy back up at the .7 fib because 200 new people were able to enter the market that day with propulsion aided by the overseeing whales who still control a large % of the coins in this still thin market.  Maybe if they wait longer then anticipated they may find cheaper coins, but they'll also be stressing out, wasting time staring at charts, and are then guessing and gambling.

Just saying, TA followers are playing a very dangerous game, there's a lot more to consider then a chart, fibs, EW, etc, and to base your decisions only on those considerations in this market is not even close to doing the same in the forex market.  Here, I would guess there is a level of magnitude less predictive power.  Perhaps when we're at $300k/coin and hover in a 6 figure range for a few years.  But I mean, it's like looking at the gold market in 1940, EW analysis applied then would have essentially been guessing, now sure you can retroactively apply dense counts and have some success today.

Pros/"Pros" have their feeling of mojo, that's cool, gl.  This is more for newbs here, just understand there's a lot more to consider, and a lot at stake.

When Gavin was asked what he was most surprised to learn through Bitcoin, he replied that people will trade anything with a price on it. 

Thanks for the tip!

I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly.  If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C.

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense!   I know I'm annoying you now!  

yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

EDIT: though for fairness sake, you have been pretty objective IMO. didn't make a dumb price call, like e.g. rpietla with his "buying at prices above 600 is not worth it" mantra, based on his misunderstanding of a linear regression model.

That was just bitcoin shitting on another bearish wedge.

working just fine for me since May, 2011! I would sell a little at below 1200 though, just in case ath is not taken. Then buy it back at 1250, in case it is. Now is the time to watch.

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism

--arepo

You're based in Amsterdam? Awesome. We should have a drink some time. (Not gay.) (Just a bit gay.) (Only the tip.) (Never mind, I'm an idiot spending too much time on the sleazy part of the Internet)


Aaaanyway...

Like I said a page ago, I'd consider myself "agnostic" re: likelihood of further correction, despite the current breakout (or breakout attempt).

However, as I posted earlier in this thread, or in the Wall Observer thread a few days ago, in my daily trading decisions I've been following my experimental 'vwap/vwma median' method closely, and I'm pretty pleased with the result so far. I described the idea behind the method earlier in here, so go dig up my post history in case you care. So here's the most up-to-date view:





The first important step was staying above 770 USD (mtgox price), which we did, except for a brief while around Decemer 29. I posted about that result shortly before New Year's Eve.

The next median level (the one that corresponds to the first peak/bottom cycle) is at 915 USD (mtgox). We approached it yesterday, and now, instead of bouncing off of it it, we shot right through it.

So I admit, my "agnostic" stance is slightly leaning towards optimism right now. However, it continues to be conditional on the events of the next week or two:

If we stay above 915 for most of the time, and the other indicators play along (money flow, bid/ask ratio, shorter term trends), I'll seriously consider the possibility that the December correction has ended, much earlier than expected. Whether that means that we'll immediately see another big rally, or whether we first go into a longer consolidation/slow uptrend period is another question, but I do think that if we stay above the level mentioned above, another sharp drop -- i.e. the often demanded "final capitulation" -- is becoming rather unlikely.

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

EDIT: I also said be "very careful" - that does not tarnish your profession. In all my posts I've been careful to point out that what many analysts seem to be doing is applying methods that would normally be sound, to a particular moment in Bitcoin's history where new factors are swaying things out of your patterns.

shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner.

--arepo

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

that was from forever ago, dude, don't be digging up people's dirt like that.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.

You are wrong. We are much higher than that again.

I predict Hodling will all but annihilate the first sell off! 

The April bubble was just a blip. The institutional investor phase is now. The bigger bubble is yet to come.

I would like nothing more, as then I could buy in again with certainty that my money will grow rather than suddenly pop. Sure, I will have lost some potential profit from selling at 800, but overall I'm doing far better in bull markets where my fiat keeps rising in value, while in bear markets my main goal is increasing my bitcoin holdings by attempting to catch floors.

However, I prefer to rely on TA, no matter how fuzzy and probabilistic it is, rather than optimistic sentiment, especially when dealing with money.

lmao, brilliant

Na, historically bitcoin doesn't follow that chart completely, as the price has a tendency to reach floor or at least close to it before commencing the major trap rise.

Unless you count 2011

But the institutional investors are coming! The public is coming! You've got parts of this notorious chart back to front! Not the right comparison I'm afraid!