Analysis - page 276. | Bitcointalksearch.org

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

chance = a million monkeys on a million computers pressing buy or sell at any point in time. as time interval increases probability of operating better then chance should also. I posit that this is not the case for most in Bitcoin, unless you follow what has occurred in the past in this thread (up to about a month ago if you haven't noticed), which was manipulation and self-fulfilling prophecy, able to exist and "predict" without any need for lines, though sprinkles do make a cake look better I'll admit.

could go on and elaborate, but the same sheep will likely straw-man what I'm saying yet again, and continue to obey the dark spirit which navigates this thread with manipulative intent and skill.

I'll stick to this and repeat, for newbs:

When Gavin, the lead developer for what may potentially be one of the most destructive, revolutionary, paradigm-shifting man-made developments the human species has ever experienced was asked what he has found most surprising, his reply was, that people will trade anything with a price attached to it.

Now, I'm anxiously awaiting $4, I mean, $2k, as mentioned the night before this recent rally ignition.

Carry on.

"It was the best of times, it was the...BLURST of times?!?!" - Mr. Burns

Forgot to take your meds again, huh?

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

Quote from: 2017orso on January 06, 2014, 03:19:42 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 06, 2014, 02:40:34 AM

Quote from: 2017orso on January 05, 2014, 12:36:07 PM

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:20:16 AM

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

Right, I understand TA, and have mentioned what you said a few times already, even in this thread.

What I'm saying is, the crowd psychology presumably measured by TA as applied to Bitcion and referenced in this thread is in fact not considering a sufficient level of psychological crowd factors to render said predictions much greater then chance if at all.

The Lucif-inspired counts you speak of are not as crazy as you think they are. And definately don't negate what I'm saying.

what is "chance" in this respect? completely random trading? trading unwaveringly along MA crossovers?

2017orso

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 06, 2014, 02:40:34 AM

Quote from: 2017orso on January 05, 2014, 12:36:07 PM

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:20:16 AM

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

Right, I understand TA, and have mentioned what you said a few times already, even in this thread.

What I'm saying is, the crowd psychology presumably measured by TA as applied to Bitcion and referenced in this thread is in fact not considering a sufficient level of psychological crowd factors to render said predictions much greater then chance if at all.

The Lucif-inspired counts you speak of are not as crazy as you think they are. And definately don't negate what I'm saying.

JustAnotherSheep

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 100

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:48:56 AM

You do realize that a triple top is very rare? I wouldn't even call it TA.

Rare but not impossible!

But seriously, no I didn't know that, I'm still a TA noob :=) However I expect major resistance at that point if we even get there, which might be enough to successfully close a potential trap.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 06, 2014, 02:46:00 AM

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:41:36 AM

You mean a triple top?

I guess that would be among the likeliest ways a reversal would play out if the bulltrap scenario is still relevant. Which is why I'm waiting for price to pass that until I go bull again Grin

There's also a double top possibility at this level if it's not broken.

You do realize that a triple top is very rare? I wouldn't even call it TA.

JustAnotherSheep

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 100

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:41:36 AM

You mean a triple top?

I guess that would be among the likeliest ways a reversal would play out if the bulltrap scenario is still relevant. Which is why I'm waiting for price to pass that until I go bull again Grin

There's also a double top possibility at this level if it's not broken.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on January 06, 2014, 02:40:34 AM

Quote from: 2017orso on January 05, 2014, 12:36:07 PM

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:20:16 AM

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

You mean a triple top?

JustAnotherSheep

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 100

Quote from: 2017orso on January 05, 2014, 12:36:07 PM

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.

I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

Quote from: windjc on January 06, 2014, 02:20:16 AM

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink

I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: keewee on January 05, 2014, 06:23:47 PM

Quote from: notme on January 05, 2014, 06:19:14 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: keewee on January 05, 2014, 06:11:49 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:03:19 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/

Code:

[img width=800]

Bear in mind that making this particular image larger will make it quite a bit bigger than the window size for many people

Right!
...and thank you notme!
I wasn't going to make it huge, but a little easier to read without having to click a link.

keewee

legendary

Activity: 1025

Merit: 1000

Quote from: notme on January 05, 2014, 06:19:14 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: keewee on January 05, 2014, 06:11:49 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:03:19 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/

Code:

[img width=800]

Bear in mind that making this particular image larger will make it quite a bit bigger than the window size for many people

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:14:24 PM

Quote from: keewee on January 05, 2014, 06:11:49 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:03:19 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/

Code:

[img width=800]

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: keewee on January 05, 2014, 06:11:49 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:03:19 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/

keewee

legendary

Activity: 1025

Merit: 1000

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2014, 06:03:19 PM

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

Ooh very handy. Thanks for that. I can read it just fine.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: samurai1200 on January 05, 2014, 02:59:20 PM

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: arepo on January 05, 2014, 02:14:56 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on January 05, 2014, 11:26:03 AM

yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Cheesy

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

i think it says something that you respect my technical analysis but can't stomach my mid-term bearishesness... not even that! a capitulation event is not a downtrend, it's a cusp. if you HODL you'll barely notice it. i'm just calling it like it is. but i've been getting tons of flak because of market sentiment right now, which, ironically enough as notme points out, is evidence as well.

--arepo

Let me be clear: there's absolutely nothing wrong with being bearish. I'm not so delusionally positive about BTC that I don't see the potential for a medium or longer term downtrend.

But there *is* something wrong with being bearish when the situation changed, and the outlook is much more balanced between continued correction and trend reversal upwards. Which is, IMO, where we are now.

Semantics, though. Wasn't my intention to attack you.

EDIT: this whole discussion is a bit tricky without price points, though. If "capitulation event" means revisiting 850, sure, I can see that happen. But right now there's still a significant number of people hoping for sub-500 coins, including those poor sods who "follow" rpietila and his log chart linear regression ideas... *That* would be a real capitulation, and it starts looking more and more unlikely we'll go back there, in my view.

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: oda.krell on January 05, 2014, 11:26:03 AM

yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Cheesy

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

i think it says something that you respect my technical analysis but can't stomach my mid-term bearishesness... not even that! a capitulation event is not a downtrend, it's a cusp. if you HODL you'll barely notice it. i'm just calling it like it is. but i've been getting tons of flak because of market sentiment right now, which, ironically enough as notme points out, is evidence as well.

--arepo

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: notme on January 05, 2014, 11:38:23 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 05, 2014, 11:33:18 AM

Quote from: arepo on January 05, 2014, 11:19:26 AM

Quote from: T.Stuart on January 05, 2014, 11:15:12 AM

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue

i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense! Cheesy

I know I'm annoying you now! Grin

I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly. If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C.

haha i can only chuckle and wait Grin

Topic: Analysis - page 276. (Read 941596 times)