Analysis - page 274. | Bitcointalksearch.org

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: zby on January 14, 2014, 07:43:06 AM

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

I'll answer since this is the chart I also draw - because Gox opened in April (it existed before that, but really opened for wires and trading BTC only in March/April 2011). Before that, there was no significant trading volume, besides some OTC deals, which, without an established price, were mostly noise. It makes sense to discard noise.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: zby on January 14, 2014, 07:55:01 AM

So you are so sure it is correct (as presented by the above sniping remarks), but you don't know why?

Yes ,i am sure it is correct. Godmodetrader.de is a well renowned professional chartanalysis Company.
I think,before the start in April 2011 Price-movements were to erratic to provide a proper Chart.
If those price-movements have been more bullish than from beginning April the ascending line would be very step and without any suppoting points when the Price touches this line.
BTW :we have 5 supporting Points in the chart which is very sound for the reliabilty of the line

P.S.:I am astonished about critics oft that chart. Technically the chart is correct. I think people are stunned by the implications of the chart e.g. a very big drop won´t hurt the bullish chart.
Watch the drop in May 2011 when the price went down from about 50 $ to about 8 $.That`s a 85 % drop !
In November/December 2013 it was a drop of 50 %

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

Quote from: segeln on January 14, 2014, 07:52:45 AM

Quote from: zby on January 14, 2014, 07:43:06 AM

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

ask godmodetrader.de that made this chart

So you are so sure it is correct (as presented by the above sniping remarks), but you don't know why?

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: zby on January 14, 2014, 07:43:06 AM

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

ask godmodetrader.de that made this chart

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

Quote from: segeln on January 13, 2014, 08:13:05 PM

Quote from: N12 on January 13, 2014, 01:30:44 PM

PS: If we have a bear market,

Well, actually we are since April 2011 in a very stable bullish-market
Up and downs are no Problems and quite normal as long as the downs don`t hurt the ascending line, going beneath that line.
I am a little bored of those complaints about crashes, bubbles, dooming etc.

I Keep hodling !!!!

Why you start the bull market in April 2011 and not earlier? The chart shows very bullish movements before April 2011.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: oda.krell on January 14, 2014, 06:53:45 AM

Let me be clear: a hypothetical downtrend that would destroy 1 year's worth of growth, reduces price by a factor of >10, will not lead investors to feel like they're in a bull market. Your point is made on a time scale that will simply be forgotten at that moment. In essence, according to your logic, any price above 0.10 USD could be redefined as bullish since it is above the price that BTC started trading at. Looking at such long time frames, with extremely large movements in between, as a singular bull market just because you found 2 or 3 sloppy points of contact on a log chart spanning several years is just laughable. That's all I have to say on this topic.

This post did`nt show any improvements of your knowledge in TA

You are too much impressed by shortterm issues.
I am more longterm orientated

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Let me be clear: a hypothetical downtrend that would destroy 1 year's worth of growth, reduces price by a factor of >10, will not lead investors to feel like they're in a bull market. Your point is made on a time scale that will simply be forgotten at that moment. In essence, according to your logic, any price above 0.10 USD could be redefined as bullish since it is above the price that BTC started trading at. Looking at such long time frames, with extremely large movements in between, as a singular bull market just because you found 2 or 3 sloppy points of contact on a log chart spanning several years is just laughable. That's all I have to say on this topic.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: oda.krell on January 14, 2014, 05:53:44 AM

Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

This depends only on the reason for this huge drop. Note that events like SR bust and China -Trouble did`nt hurt/spoil the Chart.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: oda.krell on January 14, 2014, 05:53:44 AM

Quote from: segeln on January 13, 2014, 08:21:43 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not big and in bull markets of no importance

I'll leave it to the other posters to properly ridicule you for your amusing attempt to suck all meaning out of the word "bull market". Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

sorry,but your knowlegde in TA is very poor.
Analysis by the professionals from Godmodetrader.de:(Date of publishing the Chart)

Quote

A Rally acceleration is going on which could push up the Price up to the potential trendchannel top at about 2.400 to 2.600 Dollar.
From there could start a correction which might be finished in the bullish Version in a few month at a high Level.
After that another Rally acceleration is possible.
Prices up to 15.000 or 100.00 Dollar seem to be utopic at this time but from the chart-analytic Point of view they are possible without any Problems

What story tells the Chart to you ?

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: segeln on January 13, 2014, 08:21:43 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not big and in bull markets of no importance

I'll leave it to the other posters to properly ridicule you for your amusing attempt to suck all meaning out of the word "bull market". Trust me, if we go back to 90, you'll be one of the select few to claim we're still in a bull market.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

According to your chart what is the min/max price we can have as of today and still be in the trendline?

the price could drop to about 90 $ (!!!!!!)Gox and we are still in the bull-market.
Upwards there is no Limit in bull-markets
the resistance of the upper line is not big and in bull markets of no importance

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: N12 on January 13, 2014, 01:30:44 PM

PS: If we have a bear market,

Well, actually we are since April 2011 in a very stable bullish-market
Up and downs are no Problems and quite normal as long as the downs don`t hurt the ascending line, going beneath that line.
I am a little bored of those complaints about crashes, bubbles, dooming etc.

I Keep hodling !!!!

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on January 13, 2014, 05:35:34 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on January 13, 2014, 12:38:45 PM

I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.

I know I risk of being burned as a witch saying it here... but is it not reasonable to think that when you are talking about longer periods at this point in the discovery of a new commodity/currency/phenomenon fundamentals will begin to damp technical forecasts?

I would agree, though I suspect the EW crowd doesn't. But "up to 6 months" is still quite possibly governed by TA rather than fundamentals, in my opinion, so I don't see the contradiction honestly.

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Whimsical Pants

Quote from: oda.krell on January 13, 2014, 12:38:45 PM

I simply don't see enough of anything to make such a long shot.

I know I risk of being burned as a witch saying it here... but is it not reasonable to think that when you are talking about longer periods at this point in the discovery of a new commodity/currency/phenomenon fundamentals will begin to damp technical forecasts?

zby

legendary

Activity: 1592

Merit: 1001

A propos 'unlocking events': http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-depressing-psychological-theory-that-explains-washington/

Once we have our belief we filter out the information that contradicts it.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Here is my optimistic vision. Lower triangle angle isn't important as long as it's a little above the former low, and roughly symmetrical at least. Alternatively, a double bottom (can be a little bit lower too then).

The charting matter has been a bit complicated because of the divergences between the Chinese and other markets, particularly MtGox. Based on Huobi's data, they have had a high of 1324 and a low of 350 already, whereas MtGox has 1242 and 455. That is a difference of 63% vs. 72% off the top. Bitstamp had a similarly sized high as MtGox with 1163 as the top, and a bottom at 382. 67%, so an intermediate between the two.

Because of this, I would look at 2/3 exchanges' charts to confirm the validity of such a triangle, particularly in case one exchanges diverges at first by making a new bottom but follows up with a large candle wick.

What's worrying me longer term is the hidden negative divergence in the weekly MACD (that is in addition to a shorter term one in the daily MACD).

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Whimsical Pants

Quote from: oda.krell on January 13, 2014, 01:37:16 PM

I nominate you for the prestigious "most valuable bear of the year" award Cheesy

Second.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: N12 on January 13, 2014, 01:30:44 PM

You will never hear me saying in seriousness that something is certain. It is important to account for horrible scenarios, even if the probability may be low. IF we had a real bear market, so many would be losing nearly all of their wealth (and you just know that many here have almost all their wealth in BTC at all times) clinging on to their Bitcoins because they have ZERO risk management in place in case they are wrong. They would be crippled and in denial, and worse, they might even sell near the bottom as their s-curve and log chart delusions at last shatter … only to see Bitcoin rally to new alltime highs in the next years.

I'm actually of the opinion that it doesn't look much like 2011 anymore thanks to this bounce off 455, and I will be placing bets accordingly. Yet I will never lose sight of this very real possibility, and thus, I will be limiting my risk.

Cliche as it sounds:

+1

Phrased like that I completely agree.

I nominate you for the prestigious "most valuable bear of the year" award Cheesy

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

You will never hear me saying in seriousness that something is certain. It is important to account for horrible scenarios, even if the probability may be low. IF we had a real bear market, so many would be losing nearly all of their wealth (and you just know that many here have almost all their wealth in BTC at all times) clinging on to their Bitcoins because they have ZERO risk management in place in case they are wrong. They would be crippled and in denial, and worse, they might even sell near the bottom as their s-curve and log chart delusions at last shatter … only to see Bitcoin rally to new alltime highs in the next years.

I'm actually of the opinion that it doesn't look much like 2011 anymore thanks to this bounce off 455, and I will be placing bets accordingly. Yet I will never lose sight of this very real possibility, and thus, I will be limiting my risk.

PS: If we have a bear market, the time to invest will be when everyone is too ashamed to proclaim "HODL!" and people start making fun of me for being bullish. Cheesy

bambou

sr. member

Activity: 346

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: N12 on January 13, 2014, 10:44:57 AM

Here is another way to look at this: Adoption and price aren't inextricably linked. Look at the price of the NASDAQ (still off its highs from 14 years ago) and the adoption of the internet.

Very true.

hum but isnt bitcoin different from some index? i mean, people does not adopt NASDAQ whereas they do adopt (or not) Bitcoin directly, don't they? Huh

Topic: Analysis - page 274. (Read 941563 times)