Topic: Analysis - page 291. (Read 941563 times)

Ummm. That's 3-4 years away. Ok maybe 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 years.

He also implied that bitcoin would suffer until then.

Right here it start to look nasty...  Take a deep breath and get ready toride,.   

Lol at that line, great use of imagination though, nonetheless... and displays your optimistic personality.

Luc luc luc - madness  He is in Fiat now, so his desire for long bear market is normal )

I thought you guys were talking about Lucif for a second, lol. Uncannily similar.

Guy said no such thing. Quote: "Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year." That's all.

I think you screwed up your post above... otherwise I said stuff I never remember having said :P

Anyway. There's noting rational about this market anyway. Or any market, ever. The only irrational thing is for individuals to somehow think they can "argue" with the market, as if there's a chance they could convince it to go in a more rational direction.

The only thing we have is to judge what is going on is TA, gauging market sentiment, maybe some fundamental analysis. And it looks like we've reached different conclusions based on what we see. You seem to believe in a very quick recovery, faster than ever before (remember: the April recovery was already pretty fast, much faster than the slow correction in 2011).

My view is different: based on the (admittedly short) history of Bitcoin trading there is no occurrence of such a sharp drop being just "shaken off" by the market, and the rally continuing afterwards. You could argue that August 2013 was such a case, but the volatility then was much much lower than the really sharp drops we saw in 2011, April and now (see BBW below). I think it is more likely we will either repeat April (a few more bounces post peak, then a relatively short downtrend of about a month or two), or, if we're unlucky, another 2011 (long, drawn out downtrend, which is probably the scenario lucif puts forward)

Thing is, Luc didn't call for a multi-month-to-a-year bear market.

He said that Bitcoin was in a bear market for 3-4 years. THREE TO FOUR YEARS. I will say this now. If Bitcoin is in a bear market for 3-4 consecutive years bitcoin will fizzle out and probably be dead. So, in my mind, Luc called for the death of Bitcoin. And I personally think that this is utter nonsense in that it is NOT a technical call. That's a personal or fundamentals call. And Luc masked it as technical. That was my only issue with what he said.

I actually stand to make quite a bit of money should the price go say under 500 however I simply do not see any rational reason why that will happen.

Well, I dont make bets on short term movements with bitcoin generally speaking, but time has shown repeatedly just how dangerous it is to bet against bitcoin in the medium/ long term.

The reason why I think this line will hold is simply because its a very different world for bitcoin now than it was 6 months ago in terms of acceptance/ consciousness and overall momentum (The details have been repeated ad infitum elsewhere). Therefore it simply makes more sense from a fundamental perspective that it would continue to go up rather than down. There is simply no reason fundamentally why we should continue to go down. The correction from the bad news on China is already very much baked in imo.

It's a common theme felt by 'bears' on these forums. Bulls are often offended at someone for being objective whilst evaluating the possible direction the price could be heading. I believe it was someone in this thread that said bitcoin has an amazing ability to exceed expectations both up and down. We should never allow our personal invested position to cloud our judgement when attempting to rationally evaluate the situation.

In response to lebing, As you are obviously a bit bullish, perhaps the burden of proof during this price decline is for you to prove to us, why we should start thinking the price will stop going down, and start going up? Something more helpful than an imaginary line would be nice!

It's almost as if you're personally offended by the fact that we think price is going to go down further. Are you maybe a tiiiiny bit overinvested?

Re: your graph. Yes, I agree, that's a possible line of support. Will it hold? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it

Agreed. Not gonna bet too much on it, though.

So many bears in here its crazy. Please tell me one good reason that doesnt involve an imaginary line why the price is going to go down farther than it already has?

Edit:

Heres an imaginary line.

On shaky ground? Maybe. "Utter nonsense"? No, absolutely not. If you absolutely cannot comprehend the possibility anymore that bitcoin price might enter a multi-month-to-a-year bear market, you should re-evaluate.

Relax, take a deep breath and realize this is just your interpretation. Not his words.

His last call was nothing special at all, many, many people guessed it.

His call for rally was very, very impressive though. He is speaking utter nonsense now though though and want to turn his followers to help market moves in his direction.

I think nobody is infallible, yet his last call was spot on.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there are just as many analysts keeping quiet as they make losses. The short-term movements seem difficult to predict, no matter how many different types of charts get wheeled out (and of course in the end one of them will probably be right and we will certainly hear about it if it is). For everyone who pipes up after a crash claiming to have "caught the knife" there are more who didn't manage it despite analysis.

Please excuse my layman's bullshit intuition 

Quoted for truth (sorry for the memespeak).


The newcomers to this thread need to understand one thing about (master)luc(if):

The guy is, as far as we can tell, a pretty competent trader, but he made wrong calls as well in the past. Which means he's not infallible, and/or he sometimes has a different goal in mind when he posts, i.e. he withholds something he knows or believes on purpose.


Shock! Gasp! Someone on the Internet might have an ulterior motive! Why I never would have imagined that!