Author

Topic: Analysis - page 292. (Read 941596 times)

legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 17, 2013, 08:36:33 AM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

Why should he cry? He is one of the few guys here, who consistently made money, playing this market.

You havent been around long enough to know that that statement is simply not true. He got badly burned a few times turning bearish when he underestimated the honey badger. I dont see this case as any different than that time period.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
December 17, 2013, 08:09:35 AM
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
December 17, 2013, 06:34:17 AM
newbie
Activity: 18
Merit: 0
December 17, 2013, 02:33:56 AM
Hi Samurai Smiley

I'm not trying to say when to buy or sell, but up to now that the general shape I expect.
I don't think it can overlap and go above 850 on gox, support has probably turned into resistance.


https://i.imgur.com/SkYWkTe.png
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
December 17, 2013, 01:38:57 AM
Recapping, mostly for my own reference:

Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right?  Roll Eyes

Step 1. sell
Step 2. catch (buy)
Step 3. ride (--> sell)
Step 4. buy



I hope I'm right! Go fractals!

[edit] SORRY these numbers don't have anything to do with EW theory. Please don't confuse  Kiss

So I guess the logical extension of this conversation is... where does #3 land? My guess is 850-900 based on price ranging through this weekend, though volume was pretty low even for a weekend, so that may not be accurate. And yes, #4 should be somewhere in the twilight zone. I would consider $500 reasonably safe based on price action Nov 19-20. I would consider $315 nearly indestructible, and $266 psychologically indestructible. However, momentum may carry us past some of these points for brief periods.

All prices in Gox.

And to keep things in perspective, please notice the double-exponential (exponential on a log scale) over the past couple years:
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
December 17, 2013, 01:00:36 AM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

no I mean in as much as he provides brilliant analysis he also instills fear on purpose imo

 Wink
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 16, 2013, 11:28:14 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

Ah, now you're being silly. First, I want us to see below 700 for a bit before I say that one is good for gone. Then, retesting 550 will be interesting (bitstamp prices. always bitstamp prices). Finally, 340. Interesting times ahead.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
December 16, 2013, 11:27:31 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

Why should he cry? He is one of the few guys here, who consistently made money, playing this market.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
December 16, 2013, 11:10:35 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.

no I mean in as much as he provides brilliant analysis he also instills fear on purpose imo
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
December 16, 2013, 11:08:12 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...

Its his party... He can cry if he wants to.   

I prefer him around though.  And internet suicides are always overvalued.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
December 16, 2013, 11:05:24 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.

we both know you're not going anywhere...
newbie
Activity: 18
Merit: 0
December 16, 2013, 09:42:45 PM
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

Me too, I don't see any support above 2700cny, and I'm curious about your count Lucif, but i don't think we have even completed wave 3 of C (edit : may be 3 starting in a moment).
I'm still unsure whether it's a flat or zigzag, i'm more on the regular 3-3-5 side for now though. What about you ?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
December 16, 2013, 09:41:03 PM
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
December 16, 2013, 09:38:35 PM
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.


So you see a legit target range of 275 to 350?

I put q buy in for 511.  That's too high you think?
newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
December 16, 2013, 09:37:39 PM
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:

Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/WDAjCGrV/
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
December 16, 2013, 09:27:29 PM
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.

newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
December 16, 2013, 09:00:46 PM
Look at the chart posted earlier today and compare to this updated version.

Mt.Gox Is The Red Line

Notice which fib all the ema's cross at.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NwuJC6tC/
donator
Activity: 853
Merit: 1000
December 16, 2013, 08:53:20 PM
so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

we are going much lower than that
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
December 16, 2013, 07:30:05 PM
is $400 too greedy? maybe I should back off and say $500.

The thing I am (very slowly) learning is that its better to capture 70% of a drop than to not capture it at all.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1048
December 16, 2013, 07:19:50 PM
good thing I'm a bit-stamp trader. Anyway, I'm so far bad at making calls on these mini waves. My next move will be for the long haul.

A much better strategy (long haul). Day trading and timing takes way more nerves and can be less predictable (thought the last few market impulses have been very fractal in nature).

I feel like the last few pages of TA on this thread called today's movement pretty well. That hasn't always been the case, but it has at least poised us to make intelligent actions based on data, and narrowed our options for action.
agreed. keep this up guys. it might not be said but the community appreciates your contribution, ill say it if no one else will. thanks.


~Green
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