Just a hint, have you ever thought about interpreting consolidation phases as something other than triangles?
Bit of a passive-aggressive tone, but in principle, valid remark.
No offense to masterluc or Brisance, but to me it seems too many traders concentrate almost exclusively on "candle reading", and all that comes with it (triangles, points of resistance/support).
Here's a very, very shaky idea I play around with that deviates from that method. Don't worry, I will point out just how arbitrary and non-empirical it is in a bit.
That said, here's the observation: I think I noticed that a volume-price median tends to work as an attractor, and price development in relation to that median might be a predictor for how a consolidation period resolves after a crash.
Note: this is pure eyeballing so far, and cherrypicking of the data points. In the pictures below, I mark the highest point of VWAP and the lowest point with RED circles. In picture 2, you'll notice that I might have as well picked the first green circle as the highest point, in which case the indicator wouldn't have worked the same. I would argue that it's different because the green circles constitute another high/low cycle, but that's somewhat arbitrary. So I've been trying to come up with a way to algorithmically test this, but for now, here's the result of cherry picking, applied to April, June/July and now.
The red line is the exactly middle point between the highest and lowest 2h VWAP (works equally well, or bad, with 1h, 6h).
My claim is that this line works as a price attractor at first, and then, in the few days following a crash, how price relates to this line predicts further resolution of the cycle. Price mainly stays above the median line, more or less bounces off of it upwards? Breakout upwards is likely. Similarly for price staying below, bouncing off downwards.
Point is, it's too early to conclusively say how price moves around the median this time, but the first signs point towards downward resolution. If in the next days we stay below the median, encountering resistance when trying to move above it, I will take that as a pretty bearish sign.
On the other hand, I always believe strong enough news can turn things around, so I'm not religiously following this... it's more the idea that, in absence of other strong signals, I will have to work with this.