Analysis - page 293. | Bitcointalksearch.org

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

good thing I'm a bit-stamp trader. Anyway, I'm so far bad at making calls on these mini waves. My next move will be for the long haul.

A much better strategy (long haul). Day trading and timing takes way more nerves and can be less predictable (thought the last few market impulses have been very fractal in nature).

I feel like the last few pages of TA on this thread called today's movement pretty well. That hasn't always been the case, but it has at least poised us to make intelligent actions based on data, and narrowed our options for action.

[edit] I'd also like to mention that false bull traps are a possibility. I was very worried about that due to the rise from Dec 7-10, then most of this weekend... I sold some around 900 during the crash from 1200 and gox was deciding that 900-1000 was a good range to be in. I held my position largely because of the sentiment and sound arguments/TA in this thread (and that I wasn't far off from closing my position with null change).

emanymton

full member

Activity: 219

Merit: 106

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 16, 2013, 07:10:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

Maybe. I think $400 is far more likely on btc-e and bitstamp than mtgox. Also if it gets there at all, $400 will be momentary (place your orders now). I think $500 will see some super-serious support on mtgox and btcchina.

We are currently on the other side of a bull trap. This week I think a steady decline fueled by whales pulling the trigger on their decisions is likely.

This means volatility and is good for day traders. Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right? Roll Eyes

So far down 50% with that strategy, eventually I'll get one right and make it back Cool

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

Maybe. I think $400 is far more likely on btc-e and bitstamp than mtgox. Also if it gets there at all, $400 will be momentary (place your orders now). I think $500 will see some super-serious support on mtgox and btcchina.

We are currently on the other side of a bull trap. This week I think a steady decline fueled by whales pulling the trigger on their decisions is likely.

This means volatility and is good for day traders. Sell when/before a whale does, catch the knife, ride out the bull trap, sell on the market-order-frenzy peak, then buy when the dust settles. Easy right? Roll Eyes

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Whimsical Pants

This am when btc started pushing down through suppprt at 830ish I decided to move half my stake to USD. Then bang it drops past my first target so fast I am stunned into inaction. Was planning to buy back... But now I am not sure. News plus technicals bodes fairly darkly.

I wish I was a trader like you guys. What is gonna happen?

Brisance

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Quote from: masterluc on December 16, 2013, 03:00:37 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

20d ema my favorite? Nope.

I have couple of ma, which support each subcount level. Lowest subcount supported by hourly 50 ma, highest count supported by weekly 20 ma. On their break or hold I deternine whether my count is valid.

I stand corrected, actually it was the 200sma not the 20 exponential you had called earlier. My bad.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3845764

Revised Chart With Correct Moving Averages:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/plnruYIy/

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Quote from: ?? on ??

Update:

20d ema my favorite? Nope.

I have couple of ma, which support each subcount level. Lowest subcount supported by hourly 50 ma, highest count supported by weekly 20 ma. On their break or hold I deternine whether my count is valid.

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

The 3-hour chart (full scale) on bitcoinity for Gox is looking pretty wild -- definitely some manipulation going on there. Feels like market orders are getting executed way late.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: ?? on ??

Looks like things are going down fast. I just watched it dive a whole $100 in less than an hour. This should be fast and quite painful Tongue

Like I said above: better than the alternative (*slow* and painful)

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1094

Gox ddosed again, while Bitstamp and BTC-E go down fast.

samurai1200

sr. member

Activity: 303

Merit: 250

Quote from: invisiblehand on December 16, 2013, 01:43:42 PM

Recently sold off some around 780 with the intention of buying back later

Any reading material you all recommend for TA? Books and websites. I have superficial understanding of it based on TA for Dummies (I think it was) and Investopedia

Babypips.com's "school" section has decent cliff's-notes descriptions of all the popular TA shapes. Obviously, its based on Forex.

invisiblehand

newbie

Activity: 49

Merit: 0

Recently sold off some around 780 with the intention of buying back later

Any reading material you all recommend for TA? Books and websites. I have superficial understanding of it based on TA for Dummies (I think it was) and Investopedia

Brisance

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Let's all put our hands together and ride this red waterfall together.

On a serious note closed my shorts and I'm watching for an 800 bounce "if" we get one? RSI is getting into heavily oversold so perhaps 780/800 bounce? Update: 780 Bounce hurrah!

Have a look on Gox now between 805/845 those are all the "Market Order Guys" I was telling you about. The music is about to stop and not everyone will get a chair. Wait for it.

Mt.Gox is in Purple.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6IRWB3CP/

Lady_Luck

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

I have lot of respect for Lucif, one of the best analyst around here, and in the last 18 month I have never seen him being really wrong even when he was a bit wrong (or...).

I understood he considered a 3 year super cycle, with 2011 being the top of I, april the top of III, and this november the top of V.

Which would explain the similarity between now and 2011, usually wave I= wave 5 in length, shape and price target.
But that's also the reason why I doubt we have finished V. May be 3 of V, more likely 1 of V. Which would explain the difference in length and target.
Plus, even within the cycle one of those wave need tis very likely to be extended, if I or III were, then they would invalidate each other ratio. And V definitely wasn't. The final wave even fell short.
But it's easy to mislabel, because major wave, minor wave, sub-wave of lesser degree and even subminuetette tend to replicate the same pattern as the historical one.

So unless this is a transition more than a correction, and the actual crash only happen in 18 month, after a period with neither a sharp move up nor down, it's probably isn't the end of the super-cycle yet.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oda.krell on December 16, 2013, 10:49:29 AM

In a way, I'm glad things are picking up speed. My position has been fiat > btc for a while now, so personally I wouldn't really mind whether it's a slow slide down or a rapid correction to the final bottom, but lucif's comments really worried me, especially because part of them already came true.

To remind you, he predicted (quite early, long before we hit 1200) that this rally will resemble more 2011 than 2013. That turned out to be (mostly) true: while the total increase was less than in April (factor 20 in the Q1 rally, factor 10 since October), it was also significantly faster.

The problem is, the other defining quality of the 2011 peak & correction was the extreme reluctance with which the market went down: more than half a year before it hit the bottom. Only afterwards did the uptrend resume. Which is why I would strongly prefer a quick, sharp correction and ultimately, capitulation, over a long drawn-out one.

This is why I day trade I never bought into the delusion Bitcoin could only go up like some unicorn.

Funny: Our assumptions are different but our actions are similar then. I do believe that btc will see a unicorn like ascent in the long run, hence, my goal is "land grab" i.e. maximizing my coin stash, but I'm not blind to corrections either, so I'm more than willing to believe we're going down substantially first.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

In a way, I'm glad things are picking up speed. My position has been fiat > btc for a while now, so personally I wouldn't really mind whether it's a slow slide down or a rapid correction to the final bottom, but lucif's comments really worried me, especially because part of them already came true.

To remind you, he predicted (quite early, long before we hit 1200) that this rally will resemble more 2011 than 2013. That turned out to be (mostly) true: while the total increase was less than in April (factor 20 in the Q1 rally, factor 10 since October), it was also significantly faster.

The problem is, the other defining quality of the 2011 peak & correction was the extreme reluctance with which the market went down: more than half a year before it hit the bottom. Only afterwards did the uptrend resume. Which is why I would strongly prefer a quick, sharp correction and ultimately, capitulation, over a long drawn-out one.

Brisance

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

Bitcoin had a bounce off the low 800's the problem is the majority of those orders are market and not limit meaning the new limit bids are now relatively weak in comparison to all the market orders recently placed.

What this translates to is watch out for all the people placing those market orders trying to profit with no one to buy and thin support to fall on. If you place a market order on a bounce you need to be literally the first person to do it because there will be a lot of people without a chair when the music stops.

Watch for the next leg down when the market guys begin to panic.

You will observe this after a lot of market orders are placed on a bounce and weak buying appears as soon as the market guys start to see red flashing sell orders come in you will then observe lots of asks suddenly appear or simply a large sell off.

This is how you know the panic will soon begin.

Lady_Luck

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm watching 820/838 very closely I have orders at the ready either side.

Yeah i agree with you, watching that level too (but it's pretty much done for), and looking at 4500cny. If either break, gox should join the other exchanges in the 700's.

Lady_Luck

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 0

Probably because after reading the tea leaves he might have wanted to be on the safe side and look at the TA thread, just in case

Anyway, i think once china do the next wave down, the coming fifth should finally help Gox breaking through support, what's your count Brisance ?

edit : yes Oda, and i'm starting to doubt this correction is a regular flat, wave B was way too long, not enough force in either direction. I think we'll know "how fast" better once wave 3 starts -very soon. If that's wrong and it doesn't "drop like a rock" then it's a bad sign for the coming month.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all? Cheesy

#R#a#u#t#e#

member

Activity: 65

Merit: 10

All this guessing.... You could also read tea leaves or go to the fortune teller of your choice with similar results! Tongue

Try to underestand that the future is not determinated by the past, especially not in terms of BTC/USD! Obama has to fart and all your calculation becomes invalid...

Topic: Analysis - page 293. (Read 941563 times)