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Topic: Analysis - page 298. (Read 941563 times)

legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 10, 2013, 12:34:09 PM
I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)


Don't know about that one, but 3 or 4 pages ago, when he called the top, he also predicted we're entering a multi year bear market (based on EW theory, I suppose). That's the "1 or 2 years" i'm refering to.

By the way, even though I'm sceptical we'll really see bearish development for the entire coming year, it's good to at least occasionally *talk* about that possibility:

Most of us look at the all time price graph on a log chart, and it is hard *not* to think that this will continue and continue and continue. I mean, each crash (2011, 2012, twice 2013) turns out just a minimal roadbump in the big picture, with the times between ATHs getting smaller, and the bear markets lasting shorter (this year's bear market: May and June. In 2011: ~ 6 months)

So with that in mind, I also alway think: no big deal. we'll recover soon enough. But it's good to keep in mind that there's always a chance it *could* be different.

Not sure if I'm making myself clear here....  i don't see the signs for a 2 year bear market. But it is good to be prodded once in a while by someone to at least *look* for those signs (even if in the end you conclude there are none).

Jup. That's what I wanted to say Cheesy
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 10, 2013, 11:52:37 AM
I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
December 10, 2013, 11:43:38 AM
 excellent recap oda.krell.  appreciated.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
December 10, 2013, 11:42:28 AM


Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so Cheesy), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:





In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation Cheesy

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.

He has been wrong earlier too. He predicted a triangular movement saying 'triangles follow sharp movements'. To his credit he came back later and admitted the prediction not panning out and ended up calling the top correctly.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 10, 2013, 11:38:18 AM
Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...

Graph?  Not sure what this means.
hero member
Activity: 625
Merit: 501
x
December 10, 2013, 10:56:57 AM
masterluc, thanks for the consistently high quality analysis.
I don't enjoy being on the bear bandwagon, but this time, it seems to be an eventuality.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 10, 2013, 10:56:44 AM


Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so :D), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:





In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation :D

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.
hero member
Activity: 564
Merit: 508
December 10, 2013, 10:12:12 AM
Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
December 10, 2013, 06:38:29 AM


Well i was wrong, as always, trend reversed again minutes after my post  Grin Luckily i bought again at $750 in time and have made a nice 45 BTC profit from this trade.



BTC45 profit is v nice - may i ask what your working capital is?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
December 09, 2013, 10:18:25 AM
On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.

To me it looks more like insiders delaying public diffusion of news until their price targets have been met.
Otherwise, it's quite odd for news to follow waves (price movements).
hero member
Activity: 564
Merit: 508
December 09, 2013, 09:55:35 AM
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 09, 2013, 08:55:29 AM
The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.

Yes of course nobody would bet everything on one trade. Thats why they are clever enough to steer the TA-patterns so that the big masses are under their spell, and there is absolutely nothing to do about it. If Loaded or another really big whale decided to stop the price at 1240 at the second peak they could certainly do that. They could certainly also induce the fall and set the bottom price at their wish.


Ah, okay, I see your point now. I also think you're deluded and/or utterly naive, but that's besides the point -- sometimes there's nothing to say between two people rather than "we agree to disagree".

However, your own believes only allow you one rational conclusion: stop trading. You can buy & hold, but since individual participants (that are by and large not subject of the regular TA) "shape" the price anyway, active trading must be pure gambling.

So, are you rational?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
December 09, 2013, 08:45:30 AM
nice thread derail
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 09, 2013, 08:36:32 AM

It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history Cheesy (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)

Yes, I have read a lot of rpietila's posts. He does not seem to a big enough whale to steer the market market much though. 10K coins (which he stats he has) with 80% in storage makes only 2K trading coins.



The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
December 09, 2013, 08:21:52 AM
From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.

Loaded is a top 10 bitcoin holder so I would guess he knows some things about this (listed at around 200K bitcoins).

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-top-500-richest-321265




Yeah, thanks for stating the obvious, most here know who loaded is.

Doesn't change the fact that you might well disagree with him on this matter.

Phrased in such a general way ("above some volume, TA is useless") I most certainly disagree, doesn't matter if the guy who says it holds 100 or 100k coins.

It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history :D (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
December 09, 2013, 08:18:58 AM
Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?

I remember him saying that he sold 80% of his stash at 1.2k and not buying back yet.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 09, 2013, 06:32:58 AM
From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 09, 2013, 06:28:10 AM
On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.
sr. member
Activity: 430
Merit: 250
Agent of Chaos
December 09, 2013, 06:05:01 AM
Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?
price movement in China appeared to have ended that possibility
newbie
Activity: 51
Merit: 0
December 09, 2013, 05:57:35 AM
Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?
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