Topic: Analysis - page 62. (Read 941567 times)

I have been in bitcoin for a bit more than 4 years, and ever since I started, I never really tried to predict shorter term price movements or even intermediary price movements; however, my overall presumption has continued to be that bitcoin is a good investment and in the longer term it is going to tend towards upwards.  My also underlying presumption regarding volatility has evolved too, and for that reason, I have more specifically begun to assert that the main thing that we can predict to have high odds of happening remains high volatility, and in about the past two years, I have developed and evolved systems that seem to better take advantage of the expected volatility in order to give me some profits, but the main thing is to provide me some insurance against periods or even longer term down side volatility.  It is not completely fool proof, but it has been working really well without having to get into either gambling habits or making attempts at predicting specifics regarding shorter-term price movements.

Agreed all round, in returning to this forum, masterluc and trading full time, I now see him as just another guy with an opinion. His opinion is of course very valid and it guides us and allows us to discuss our way through different realistic scenarios as we approach them. We will literally talk our way to the top, and identify it as it's happening in this way or just after the fact. That's basically what we need to make the trade or sell the holdings or whatever we plan to do with that information. We won't be identifying the exact time and price now and trading that exactly, that seems ludicrous. There's an interesting trading/market podcast with Michael Covel who always laughs about the idea of prediction in markets. It took me a while to get that, you can't predict the future, you can only guess possibles and probables to give you an edge and align your expectations with reality.  

This is how I trade, as you say it's hard to project beyond one or 2 legs, but you can keep multiple scenarios in mind so you are not too surprised when one occurs over another, then when you identify all the signals that surround that scenario you can start to build a picture that equals confirmation of that scenario or a close enough likeness. Then you can trade it. It's always a bit messy, never perfect, and exact predictions always seem to me to be kind of painful in trading as they lead to expectations of the prediction coming true.


I like how luc is giving scenarios, at the moment he says $25-75k if X or Y. Seems a pretty good range of expectations I enjoy this thread and so glad you're all still here, let's continue talking our way to the next top.

"analysis never ends"

a lot of people pretend they are good at predicting tops and bottoms. As a matter of fact, only 1% or so are really good at it.
If everyone is good at everything, everyone could be Bill Gates or Elon Musk. But no, that's not how the world works.

It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?

I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely). 

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

Yes everybody here in this thread knows this!
However don't take those chart as a guarantee!
And if you read his blog posts you would know this. He just recently said he expects us the price to retest the 10k.
That would be a ~50% retracement form the actual price. And if we should go higher that would could end in a 60-70% retracement.
10k is a pretty significant, psychological number. Therefore to test this as a hopefully new solid bottom seems inevitable to me.
So buckle up my friend! There will be blood on the street before we go for 100k/BTC!!

actually there is master luc's prediction from may https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/
where he focast price action to 30 k down to 15 k then 100k.

Here's my interpretation:

A drop from 17K to 10K- (40+%) would mean that the bull run continues to 70K-100K.
A drop from 30K+ to 10K- (67%+) then the bull run is over (bubble caput) and no chance of 70K-100K.  I think he earlier said the next bear market would be 2 years.

It seems to me that since we crossed 17K and are now approaching 20K , the latter option is more likely.

50%+ correction would be healthy.

I understand this much:
A $10k correction is the necessary prerequisite for 70-100k.  Without retesting 10k, we're only going to see 20-30k.
What happens after that, I'm not sure.  It sounds like he's saying we're bound to see 10k eventually, but I'm not totally sure.

Because 10k is not tested, it means that we will fall on it no matter where. And if with 30 we fall to 10, then the bubble caput.
Sounds like if we go to 30k then drop to 10k, it's the end of the bubble.

I never would have come up with such ideas.  That's the master's genius.
But I can see it now.  A shot at 70k requires volatility, which can only come in the form of a correction.  That's what brings energy to the market.  Without that energy, that slingshot, we're not getting the momentum for a really serious rally to 70 or 100k.

At this point we're looking at 20-30k, and we're pushing 20k right now.  So exuberance is out of place.

I wonder what master is thinking regarding today's btc price?
if we're to revisit 10K it will be a 50% correction...

With the master it is never clear...for me anyway.

But I believe he was talking about the coming year of 2018. So like a 12 month time frame.

What will he mean by this season?

I interpret it as a pauze instead of an immediate spike. A retest of $10k should be healthy but perhaps that is simply not permitted.

So do not sell but HODL
Buy more on dips
HODL.

Sim-ple 

His post from an hour later does a good job laying out my own strategy in the current market:

Pretty obvious.

He's saying that because we blew right through $10k upwards and support levels around $10k were never properly tested for buyer support, we'll probably revisit them soon for a re-test.

Although I might disagree with that a little, as we hit a low of $12,700 not more than 4 days ago and it bounced pretty hard off of that point.

If you look at the chart though, the true pump started on 12/5 around $11,730.  So if things were to turn bearish, in my mind that would be the first support test level, with perhaps a brief spike down to $10k.

With all the bullish news lately, it's possible than any major short/dump will be gobbled up quickly. Whale traders are desperate for more supply right now.

Anyone know what his latest cryptic prophecy means....

The final pop shot of dumb money.

'Hey, I can't afford a whole bitcoin. Look, next to it is this other one that costs way less. I can own a whole one of these. Cool.'

When you reach that level of desperation and stupidity it's a likely indicator of there being not much upside left.

Litecoin shot up during 2013 peak.