25% out of the biggest difficulty yet is something From what i see on BitcoinWisdom it seems that we haven't reached or passed over 60k TH/s so the next difficulty jump after this one might be a very small one. Time will tell.
you right if you compare biggest jumps. but history shows that 20% in real life is not that bad as later jumps are always smaller than predicted.
That's because the predictions are flawed.
As of now I'm showing 12.7% increase on 4/30. Average block time this difficult is 8.88 minutes.
M
Any jump over 2-3% is bad.
Imagine buying a machine for $100. With a theoretical 15% increase every jump. In the first 10 days the machine makes you $10, then days 10-20 it makes only $8.40, then days 20-30 it makes $6.70. So the first 30 days it has made you $25.10. Based on my experience the first month a miner will make 70% of its lifetime ROI if the btc price stays steady.
Mining equipment prices need to drop drastically, or the price of btc must rise exponentially, unlikely. This leads to a negative standard deviation for mining right now.