Very true and sad, on a daily basis yes the variance is higher but over 15-30 days not so much, if you are running 10PH or more, then every point matters and getting PPS less 4% sucks, just to get the same payout daily? Over 30 days you would be 101% or more on Kano. If these big guys were on Kano for the last 70 weeks, they would be at 103.9%. For every 10+PH miner that moves to Kano or other small pool, the variance reduces. F2 and Ant can't come close to block change times and thats an advantage Kano and Solo have over all others.
with all due respect, it is nothing that it s a guarantee of some sort that you will score above or even 100% at that pool going forward.
In fact, if it was above 100% for a while, one would think that at some point it will be below 100% for a while as well.
Of course, with a higher hashing in the pool, variance will decrease.
Here, have a read of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy#An_example:_coin-tossingBUT most importantly, look at the image on the right and the description.
Luck DOES NOT correct itself.
Expectation is always 100%
... not 50% coz we got a 150%, not 3 reds in a row coz we got 3 greens, not any other random thing someone thinks up.
That is all Gamber's Fallacy, it's not "some better theory", it's Gambler's Fallacy.
The reason why luck tends towards 100% is not a correction on what happened before, it's that you always expect 100%
If you have have 200% luck since a pool started for 100 blocks (yeah that'd be pretty lucky) you still expect to get 100% for future blocks.
So, since maths goes on forever and an eternity, the average of 100 x 200% + 1,000,000 x expected 100% moves closer to 100%
That expectation is to approach 100%, in this case from above, but it's not correcting history, it's simply expecting to average closer to 100%
let me also add, Kano's fee is .9% and yes Ant says zero fee but they DO NOT PAY transactions and Kano does. Most blocks now include .25 to .50 in fees and after Kano's .9 most of the time 25+ BTC get distributed to miners unlike Ant which is alway 25.
Where exactly did I say that there is a guarantee that it will happen IMMEDIATELY-this is gamblers fallacy.
The expectation that over long time periods luck shall not exceed 100% is reasonable and has nothing to do with such fallacy.
To give you an equally simple example: In ideal situation toss the coin 5 times and all five come as heads
mean that I have higher chances to have tails next time, but if I toss the coin 1 billion times, it should be close to 1:1. In addition, it is possible to calculate the chance of tossing 30 heads in a row, which would be ~1 chance in a billion. Similarly, it is possible to calculate how likely is 103% pool luck to continue for a year, or ten. Check with organofcorti for exact numbers.
On the other hand, over a long period of time, luck is likely not to exceed 100%, and in fact slightly lower due to orphan blocks (analogy with many coin tosses result in 1:1), therefore there will be periods with less than 100% luck simply due to variance. When-unknown.
