Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.
Too many people holding their breath.
Does anyone who doesn't have any skin in the game still believe BFL is for real?
I have no money in this and I believe BFL is sincerely trying to build what they are saying they're trying to build. I also believe they have not the slightest idea what they are doing.
seen nothing
solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam. At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.
By 'operationally', I mean that core perps knew that they had little hope of pulling off a real device, the logical path would be 100 % con job. Dumping a bunch of money into some hail-Mary chip fab efforts is just not a rational way to go.
Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"?? I would never consider scamming people as being a logical path no matter how much money is involved. My hope would be that the vast majority of the rest of the world would feel the same. Obviously, there is Sonny, but he is not the only one involved in operating BFL - far from it.
Also, who says they knew they had little hope of pulling off a real device? Everything they've said indicates that they have had MUCH hope (one might even say confidence) of pulling off a real device. Where are you getting this idea that, just because thermal limits are exceeded on one type of chip package, they would just throw in the towel and say it couldn't be done?
But I see your point, as I would be cautious. But you gotta remember: Sonny is not the one taking my money. BFL is. BFL happens to employ a previously convicted felon. Lots of companies do. 
