Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 10.

arepo

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update 8:

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scary bear pennant could break downwards. if it does, we may see as low as $130 but there will be incredibly strong support there. scenario RED seems most likely, with the mid-term bull trend intact. just had to shake out all the weak, greedy hands.

either way, the breakout will occur within approximately 3 hours.

--arepo

arepo

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Quote from: michaelGedi on April 24, 2013, 02:03:17 PM

trend broke yes?

my 6 hourly chart looks different to your screenshot.

Anyways I sold out before I lost my profit but seems to be stablising at 145 now. Then again, I thought that at 150!

best of luck

there's a candle battle going on right now, which affects the last data point, which is the important one. this is why my screen shot looks different, the graph changes as the data changes. nothing definitive until this 6-hour candle closes but it seems there's been some bullish action since you posted the above because we're still just stuck on that scenario black line at this moment. as long as we sit here, this is 'just a correction'. any lower and things start to look scary.. that green doji up to $166 and huge volume bar does not make me smile.

i secured some profit too, thankfully, but i'm disappointed that there was so much panic selling. i thought people really believed in this rally, but apparently it was about 40% greed, at least. we'll see in time.

michaelGedi

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Activity: 364

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"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

trend broke yes?

my 6 hourly chart looks different to your screenshot.

Anyways I sold out before I lost my profit but seems to be stablising at 145 now. Then again, I thought that at 150!

best of luck

arepo

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

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update 7:

*charts are 1-month 6-hour scale*

we're starting to see some panic selling. what happened to investor confidence? Cheesy

it is deepening the correction but we're still in bull territory:

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as long as that trendline holds, the picture remains bullish.

remember this?

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right now, we are still in scenario black.

if the trendline breaks, scenario red could still be bullish, but carries a lot of reversal-risk (see high-volume green 'doji' on 6-hour scale)

and at least for now, it still seems like there is too much bullish momentum and not enough selling pressure for scenario blue (REVERSAL).

arepo

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update 6:

more trendline magic!

William's %R 10-DAY 1-HOUR scale

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downward breakout associated with a correction to the uptrend, as projected from update 5. 50-line bounce is very bullish, and we seem to have found support at a lower line.

arepo

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update 6:

10-day ~~2-hour~~hourly scale

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'moving support' here even more robust than the scaled chart i sent out in emails, showing the insane momentum of this last push. we're gonna start running out of space, soon, though. picking up some risk here.

arepo

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in the meantime, i'm going to continue posting updates for current price action.

update 5:

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subscribers know what i mean Wink

arepo

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Quote from: ruski on April 24, 2013, 08:47:31 AM

Sorry for breaking up the party. Undecided

Hopefully it's for the better.

no worries. i definitely appreciate the heads-up

ruski

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Sorry for breaking up the party. Undecided

Hopefully it's for the better.

arepo

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Quote from: dandirk on April 24, 2013, 08:44:40 AM

Arepo, don't worry about making us do some additional disclaimer thing, if it saves you from douche bags that can't think for themselves and trust their life savings to you on a whim I will be more then happy to comply. Just don't put in any small lettering demanding my first born... first that's just demented and second... not having any:)

haha it was in complete un-seriousness, don't worry Tongue

. although i feel i will have to consult legal advice before publishing again, for those of you who expressed interest in a follow-up report.

dandirk

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Quote from: arepo on April 24, 2013, 07:57:50 AM

thanks for your subscriber-side perspective. i'm doing some research now. hopefully i won't have to make all of you confirm in a legally binding way that you won't bring a lawsuit against me Wink

No worries from me either arepo... I hate that the legal system has turned to this... Where something as risky as ANY financial advice can be sued like that. I suppose a fine line could be made for scam vs advice, yet at the end of the day it is our BTC and us performing the action... just as if we heard a tip on the train going to work.

I would think a disclaimer would be enough, maybe an opt-out form or something.

Arepo, don't worry about making us do some additional disclaimer thing, if it saves you from douche bags that can't think for themselves and trust their life savings to you on a whim I will be more then happy to comply. Just don't put in any small lettering demanding my first born... first that's just demented and second... not having any:)

arepo

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Quote from: michaelGedi on April 24, 2013, 07:33:26 AM

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm not taking it as "financial advice" in a formal sense and I don't think it's been dressed as such.

More of an informed opinion... an opinion that may be more informed than mine. It's my choice what I do with my BTC, and arepo has made that fairly clear IMO. However, my opinion could be wrong, as could arepo's analysis. I don't know what the law says about these things or the exact wording of arepo's report, but the disclaimer was in there.

Hopefully other people will see that where figures are quoted as possible hits, supports, resistance points and so on, arepo could be totally wrong. So, you would be totally wrong to follow the informed opinion to the letter. There are no exacting recommendations on when to buy or when to sell, just possible scenarios and possible best answers to each scenario that are all fairly loose and open to interpretation.

I would also add that reading analysis as an emotional investor is very helpful as it keeps things in perspective... but yeah, enough said

thanks for your subscriber-side perspective. i'm doing some research now. hopefully i won't have to make all of you confirm in a legally binding way that you won't bring a lawsuit against me Wink

michaelGedi

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Activity: 364

Merit: 250

"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm not taking it as "financial advice" in a formal sense and I don't think it's been dressed as such.

More of an informed opinion... an opinion that may be more informed than mine. It's my choice what I do with my BTC, and arepo has made that fairly clear IMO. However, my opinion could be wrong, as could arepo's analysis. I don't know what the law says about these things or the exact wording of arepo's report, but the disclaimer was in there.

Hopefully other people will see that where figures are quoted as possible hits, supports, resistance points and so on, arepo could be totally wrong. So, you would be totally wrong to follow the informed opinion to the letter. There are no exacting recommendations on when to buy or when to sell, just possible scenarios and possible best answers to each scenario that are all fairly loose and open to interpretation.

I would also add that reading analysis as an emotional investor is very helpful as it keeps things in perspective... but yeah, enough said

ruski

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PMed.

arepo

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Quote from: ruski on April 24, 2013, 07:16:59 AM

Quote from: arepo on April 24, 2013, 07:15:44 AM

is that enough to protect me?

I'm not a lawyer, so I'm going to follow my own advice on that one Cheesy

Not to make any comment on how good or bad your advice may be, I was just concerned for you. Best of luck.

i was a little concerned for me, too, but decided to rather throw caution to the wind -- and now you've got me worried.

in the OP i gave a brief introduction, i'm just a young guy with a penchant for math and i've been working out methods for bitcoin analysis awhile. i am not 'certified' to give 'financial advice'. these are simply observations based on my trading strategies and price models, and my subscribers use it to inform their trading at their own risk. i am not liable for any losses, and i made that clear in the included disclaimer.

again: anything in the price report or in this thread that may look like financial advice, is in fact not.

if anyone is more familiar with the legality of this, please PM me privately. if you inform me well i may compensate you for your efforts.

ruski

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Quote from: arepo on April 24, 2013, 07:15:44 AM

is that enough to protect me?

I'm not a lawyer, so I'm going to follow my own advice on that one Cheesy

Not to make any comment on how good or bad your advice may be, I was just concerned for you. Best of luck.

arepo

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Activity: 448

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Quote from: ruski on April 24, 2013, 07:13:07 AM

Arepo, I hope you realize that actually selling financial advice is a crime unless you are qualified to do so, and you're exposing yourself to litigation and liability for any losses anyone makes taking your advice if you are not.

It's all good and well until you start charging.

i am relatively aware of this, and included a simple disclaimer with the original price report. is that enough to protect me? these updates have been free, and are really just conversation with the subscribers.

thanks for the heads up.

ruski

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Arepo, I hope you realize that actually selling financial advice is a crime unless you are qualified to do so, and you're exposing yourself to litigation and liability for any losses anyone makes taking your advice if you are not.

It's all good and well until you start charging.

arepo

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

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update 4:

the price is acting more bullish than even my most bullish sub-scenario! this is exciting but worrying. corrections cannot be avoided, only carefully timed Tongue

keep an eye on those supports i outlined in the last email update. momentum can still theoretically correct all the way down to the second, lower line (the moving support) without indicating a reversal. remember the important resistance that is included in the price targets of the report -- this is still my best guess for the general timing of the top. i may consider revision because of recent bullish momentum, but prices above this target carry too much risk for me, personally.

happy to see scenario 1 continue to play out very straightforwardly. as always, send me some mail if you wanna chat

--arepo

arepo

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

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important* update 3:

i just sent out an email about ten minutes ago. it had a chart enclosed and some updates regarding current market behavior. it's a useful extension of 'scenario 1', be sure to check it out.

also, if you didn't get the email and you subscribed to this report, let me know.

--arepo

Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 10. (Read 14526 times)