Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 6. (Read 14526 times)

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this is a pretty big moment for this baby bull... if we can break out of this range it'd be the first real evidence of a resumption of the uptrend -- right now we're still stuck in a bearish consolidation pennant.

edit:

further evidence for criticality: if we don't make major gains today we'll have a high-volume doji on the 3-day scale.

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i don't think it's quite fair to call that a 'sucker's rally' -- it wanted to happen, the market was oversold when we started out.

as for selling as the theme -- i rather have the feeling that after yesterdays volume, there aren't many more coins left to sell 

--arepo

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.

haha they'll think what they do no matter what i say, don't worry

Too bad for you I'm only making money from the panic sell offs, and you're not getting my cheap coins because I don't sell low.

It will be today  ? i like watchins you loosing money

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again.

I want to lick 119$ and i want to lick it today. Shall we ?

i'm getting more and more suspicious of that never happening as time goes on...

i feel that we are short-term oversold, investor confidence at a local low, etc. most people went to sleep, put their bids at $90 -- hah! the market moves to minimize profits. we'll rebound before the bulk of the money gets back into the market for this reason, if we don't break under $120 soon, and the ask depth didn't exactly fill in...

all i can say is i wish your bid at $120 good luck  

--arepo

If 120 holds a week from now then I'll admit I was wrong. I have bids set to buy back in at 142.3 after selling 154 so I'm OK with this.

However if the 120 wall is breached to the 110 territory...

Anyway, this is the speculation forum after all.

Tsss, so doom and gloom.
Let us at least touch $120, will you? 

But I admit that 5k @ $121 and 5k @ $120 isn't that much.
So much tension in the air! Weeeeee!

first, let's ask, why the crash?

take a look at a chart i posted yesterday, the William's %R (oscillator):

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it's clear that the market was overbought in both the mid-term (yellow) and the short-term (green). the selling pressure from being short-term overbought pushed us to the black trendline i drew -- the selling pressure from being mid-term overbought pushed us past it.

but something else apparently happened today -- can anyone confirm this?


if this is the case, then price will recover sharply as soon as the selling pressure tapers, because a huge 'unscheduled' sell-off pushes a market extremely oversold.

i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

let's look at a chart? (1-month 6-hour scale)

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Chaikin Money Flow no longer parabolic (good), but is linear and positive, with a positive slope. this is a bullish picture.

As for the MACD, i suspect that many new traders may have been trading on this chart exactly -- the 6-hour MACD! the panic selling started immediately after we saw a bearish crossover there.

for balance to my bullishness, 2-hour MACD shows a double-top bearish picture, with a very bearish zero-line crossover.

i hope $120 holds, for bitcoin's sake.

--arepo

still possible, though i assess unlikely from the following:
 
bears lose ammo with every bounce, that is, bounces on high volume are 'exhausting' to the trend.

also, the two bottoms are too symmetric. i haven't noted in this thread, but this pattern should look familiar (see action after first crash to $50). the bottoms of the bounces are almost equal, and their volumes are almost equal.

in other words -- for falsifiability -- if this bounce had significantly lower volume, or did not reach as significantly close to $120, then your model would have better chances.

try to use your bullish intuition, too -- flip the picture upside-down, does it look bearish to you? (double top)

only time will tell...

--arepo

edit: not saying we can't still go down from here, but i think the most bearish situation would be a period of consolidation around this critical resistance before another significant leg down.

Indeed the trend is not looking good, its seems like a slow decline with bounces, i'm afraid the wall at 121-120 many not hold long.

Something like this?

Gna... I don't know, seems to me the first drop was to $120.
We didn't re-test it.

yeah notice the large volume:

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this looks even more like a 'double bottom' than my first call. volume is comparable.

--arepo

one word at this time: Capitulation

the market intentionally minimizes your profits.

in other words, not only does it not care what you want, if it knows what you want, you won't get it

No, I want a double bottom at $120!