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Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 8. (Read 14526 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  Wink

it's completely useless for analysis ...

i just realized this isn't exactly true...

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the other reason i was looking at that scale is because i've been shorting the hell out of this panic with leverage. Cheesy caught the top and bottom twice for about 40% returns in an hour.

the same patterns exist on all price scales...

--arepo
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
All hail Bitcoin!

It took 2 crashes, but now I understand when one should just stay put on the sideline.

I'm happy I learned.  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  Wink

it's completely useless for analysis, i was just trying to show the volatility. i was a little late with the screen shot, it was more like 15% in 20 seconds. combination of jumpy traders, gox lag, and a thin ask side. all hail bitcoin Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
1min chart? Isn't that a little too noisy? Unless you like to trade often...  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
Traders gonna trade.

Now I'm waiting for the inevitable rebound and re-crash.

some serious volatility going on right now...

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approx. 15% in 1 min? this. is. bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Traders gonna trade.

Now I'm waiting for the inevitable rebound and re-crash.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD  Tongue

Oh I want bitcoins. But I can have moarrrr if I wait!

yes, i know you and i are not the pigs getting slaughtered right now. i just don't understand why so many people bought them if they were just gonna sell them off like this in two days' time haha. this is ridiculous panic selling right now.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD  Tongue

Oh I want bitcoins. But I can have moarrrr if I wait!
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
Well, I guess nobody wants bitcoins after all -- we're all just in it for the USD  Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
update 11:

*charts are 1-month 6-hour scale*



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right now, we are still in scenario black.

if the trendline breaks, scenario red could still be bullish, but carries a lot of reversal-risk (see high-volume green 'doji' on 6-hour scale)

and at least for now, it still seems like there is too much bullish momentum and not enough selling pressure for scenario blue (REVERSAL).




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this is it. this is the big moment where we test the trend's support -- if we go any lower, the picture turns bearish. the bullish momentum is gone and the selling pressure is on, we need a big bounce.

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compare to:

I guess this was C, as trend line under attack



$140 should hold... if we go below then trend is broken...

[from lucif's thread again]

--arepo
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
Was it really triangle - it looked like a wedge (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp) for me (and I was selling).

yes, it was a wedge, that is, it did not exhibit lower highs and higher lows, but higher lows and higher highs.

since both of these patterns are associated with large volume breakouts, i tend to look at them as two manifestations of the same underlying behavior. the idea of the price function behaving like a dampened oscillator (sine function with decreasing amplitude), is associated with consolidation. forgive me for using the word 'triangle' too liberally.



I really only repeat what I read here and on some reference materials like investopedia - but my understanding is that wedge was susceptible to trend change - that is when it was going up - then it was probable that when it breaks it will go down, with triangles I don't see similar remarks on investopedia.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
Was it really triangle - it looked like a wedge (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp) for me (and I was selling).

yes, it was a wedge, that is, it did not exhibit lower highs and higher lows, but higher lows and higher highs.

since both of these patterns are associated with large volume breakouts, i tend to look at them as two manifestations of the same underlying behavior. the idea of the price function behaving like a dampened oscillator (sine function with decreasing amplitude), is associated with consolidation. forgive me for using the word 'triangle' too liberally.

zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
don't worry, something's about to happen this time.




haha great pic, i had a good laugh Cheesy

as for the test, i realize that it was pretty unscientific of me to 'readjust' the breakout time after the first call -- what i ought to have done was provide error bars for the time in the first place -- which inspired me to measure triangles with more statistical rigor. geometric measurements clearly are not enough. what properties tend to lead to successful breakouts? what properties tend to lead to unsuccessful breakouts? and what properties lead to no breakouts at all, and are simply other patterns or just noise masquerading as triangles?

as for the one i was looking at last night,



the 'breakout attempt' occurred at around 5:00 am EST, so, as i calculated before, about 100%200% error. however, it failed -- i suspect because of low volume.

however, the triangle itself is still very robust, and the price did not begin trending sideways until after 5 am. unfortunately, being able to identify triangles is useless until i learn how to measure them more precisely Tongue

regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

--arepo

Was it really triangle - it looked like a wedge (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp) for me (and I was selling).
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

Stop using triangles. I would suggest using dochian channels.

well i'm certainly not only using triangles Cheesy

and yes, the crossover you identified seems to be spot on. it does seem like we're going to slide down to the next support...
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

Stop using triangles. I would suggest using dochian channels.
For example



We have a sma crossover which can lead to a correction if the channel is moved downwards. It's pretty laggy but not as error prone.

Ok it did that, lets see if it works, if it does it should reach next support.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
don't worry, something's about to happen this time.




haha great pic, i had a good laugh Cheesy

as for the test, i realize that it was pretty unscientific of me to 'readjust' the breakout time after the first call -- what i ought to have done was provide error bars for the time in the first place -- which inspired me to measure triangles with more statistical rigor. geometric measurements clearly are not enough. what properties tend to lead to successful breakouts? what properties tend to lead to unsuccessful breakouts? and what properties lead to no breakouts at all, and are simply other patterns or just noise masquerading as triangles?

as for the one i was looking at last night,



the 'breakout attempt' occurred at around 5:00 am EST, so, as i calculated before, about 100%200% error. however, it failed -- i suspect because of low volume.

however, the triangle itself is still very robust, and the price did not begin trending sideways until after 5 am. unfortunately, being able to identify triangles is useless until i learn how to measure them more precisely Tongue

regardless, i appreciate the constructive criticism Wink hopefully i will return with an improved model. i have some work to do.

--arepo
full member
Activity: 350
Merit: 100
don't worry, something's about to happen this time.



This is what happens when you confuse mid-term chart patterns for ultra short-term. Roll Eyes
full member
Activity: 350
Merit: 100
It's just trending sideways. It could continue to do so for days. (Or external influences could attack it again, of course.) Nothing to see here IMO. Bought and holding.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
update 10:

remember where we are in the model? this is why i believe fig 9 is correct:

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so far, so consistent.

--arepo
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
I will be watching for a bit too... Though for some reason, nothing happens during this time, then when I wake up I missed something!

don't worry, something's about to happen this time.

my breakout-time-estimate was about 100% off, but i can live with that. i'm more confident now than before that this is a robust triangle -- check out the hourly candle view, very orderly. it seems i estimated the lower bound of the triangle a little too high (i thought the long tails at the base were outliers, but they were actually following a moving support that didn't get touched again until the beartrap just this past hour [yellow line in fig 9]). this is what caused me to underestimate the timescale.

figure in update 9 still my best projection. let the bulls run.

--arepo
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