Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 9. (Read 14526 times)

I will be watching for a bit too... Though for some reason, nothing happens during this time, then when I wake up I missed something!

I'm watching. That would be a nice timing for a DDOS. 

who's watching this intense candle battle? bulls vs bears, who will win? winner picks the direction of the next move....

we could also simply move down. we just need the high volume to substantiate my earlier claim.

looks like a beartrap breakout. a little late. we'll move up next hourly candle.

update 9:

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-triangle bounds in white
-moving support in yellow
-decreasing volume in blue
-price projection in grey

this is my best guess. if this doesn't occur, then the triangle is invalidated, indeed.

I know, just having a laugh.

Those are not the courses I am talking about.

So, it's been 3 hours, can we call it yet?


They still do. Those bastardly universities.

I really appreciate that yourself and others post trading methodologies on the forum.   

Before the Internet (and to a lesser extent today), "professionals" charge thousands for the privilege of "learning to trade".

I'm well aware of this and is the only reason i published my price report to a small number of traders. otherwise i would have done a public bounty, but you and i both know that it would be self-defeating in that case.

as for your other points, i tend to agree

--arepo

I can't take it anymore.

Not to the OP personally, but damn.

If a "trading system" works, then it stands to reason that it can only be known to a few participants.  i.e If a majority "know it" then it cannot work.
Absorb other techniques and build your own.

I say this because I have traded in "front" of the market (as a Future adviser) and the locals know exactly what re-tracement/wedge/Fibonacci/macd/RSI/Stochastic/Bollinger/neural net etc.. will do at price points.   And they trade accordingly.  Push/pulling prices to these pivots is what they live for.

To the "new day traders" out there....

Take a long hard look at this chart.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgCza1gWMAzm1g13zm2g25

Now look at it again and then take a "guess" where it will be in September 2013 this year.

Carry on trading and good luck.

Disclaimer:  I'm long bitcoin.
Random advice: Buy all dips.

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how about 21 candles?

in all seriousness, while i do understand the point about the validity of other pattern assessments, i don't quite follow what you mean by comparing the volume in the higher price ranges to the outlying ones. maybe you can clarify?

i think that you misunderstood my intent in 'shoehorning' the pattern into this model. as you can see, i really love triangles.

i think nested triangles are beautiful, and you have to admit that the 21-candle resolution shows a robust triangle shape. i don't even have to draw the lines.

coming back to your point, what's useful about candlestick analysis is that it gives directional bias: you have a 'bearish' abandoned baby or a 'bullish' engulfing shape. triangles tend not to do this. only certain specific market conditions, like consolidation after a large drop, have directional bias -- that's where the 'bearish pennant' comes from, i'm sure you know already.

keeping this in mind, my intent was more to point out a triangle than to determinate the breakout direction. it is a 'weak' pennant, but it is a robust triangle. and triangles are useful to identify even when you have no idea in which direction they will break out because the breakout is a signal. if you can determine a time frame during which the breakout must occur, when you see the sudden volume, you receive the directional signal well before the movement out of the range.

i hope this makes my above posts seem less inane

--arepo

ii'm about to respond to you, ruski, but let me put this out here first.


it's been about an hour since this call. let us consider this an experiment, or a 'test' of the fractal hypothesis. of the small-scale triangles, this 'weak' pennant is one of the more robust ones i've observed. therefore, i'm confident that we'll see a breakout. 2 hours and counting.

Alright. Where do I start.

Firstly, calling a series of four descending candlesticks a "triangle" is inane. They have higher "volume" in the higher price ranges than the outlying ones, which if you try to visually expand that to a longer timescale, results in high fluctuation in volume, definitively busting any bear/bull/consolidation pennant. Furthermore trying to do so simply because there was a "breakout" at the end - which seems to be the only reason you've picked a triangle to retroactively label that period - is even more inane. There are a dozen models that would be more accurate in reading that scenario than trying to shoehorn it into this model. That could be a bearish abandoned baby back at $155.5, which would mean the price was going to fall sharply after slowing. That could be another one, at the $165 peak - and in fact it is almost.

TA is an adjunct to knowledge of the market conditions. The only thing that explains (IMO) that rise is bullish sentiment. Most all of the technicals pointed to a drop.

i am quite curious as well -- i'd appreciate the constructive criticism of the methods i use. feel free to share here.

Go on... I'm captivated by this conversation.

I could write you an essay on why that's wrong: tl;dr I strongly disagree.

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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lucif also complains about my time-scales however the fractal hypothesis holds that these patterns do exist on these small scales, they are just often obscured by a lot of noise.

as such, the short time scale does make it difficult to tell if it is a robust pattern, but it fits the bill. i'll agree, however, that this is a 'weak' pennant.

if i didn't zoom in so far, the volume wouldn't look so sporadic, but the triangle detail can't be resolved at the next scale up. however, the large volume is consistent with the base of a triangle, i don't believe that this breaks the pattern. we'll see if the breakout occurs on schedule.

also, i've been attempting to determine the moving support for this rally but it is such a strange shape. by any measurement, it looks like we're way above any reasonable linear moving support so even a bounce off of $130 will not invalidate the underlying bull trend visible in the oscillators. if we touch $130 again, the $166 doji would be warranted, as we would have retraced that entire movement (hence reversal) but there's just way too much support for it to be anything but short-term. the mid-term trend prevails.

--arepo

You're calling that a bear pennant? I wouldn't even qualify that as a consolidation triangle over such a short time period. That volume spike on the drop also discredits it. The bearish reversal warnings at every peak and trough since $145 are a little worrying but since it's BTC...