Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 4.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: arepo on April 30, 2013, 12:28:41 AM

for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

thanks again, notme!

fixed the link in the original.

feedback is encouraged!

--arepo

notme

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Activity: 1904

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yrral.net/arepo-2013-04-30.pdf

notme

legendary

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Merit: 1002

Quote from: arepo on April 30, 2013, 12:42:25 AM

Quote from: notme on April 30, 2013, 12:37:17 AM

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads. If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo

Sorry, I thought it was public, I'll pm you. I'd be happy to put it up somewhere less sketchy.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: molecular on April 30, 2013, 12:51:13 AM

how to download this w/o having to sign up?

sorry about that... working on finding a better host right now.

--arepo

molecular

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Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: arepo on April 30, 2013, 12:28:41 AM

Quote from: arepo

fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

how to download this w/o having to sign up?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: notme on April 30, 2013, 12:37:17 AM

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads. If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: arepo on April 30, 2013, 12:28:41 AM

Quote from: arepo

fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains has expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads. If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: arepo

fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 11:51:00 PM

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 29, 2013, 11:26:01 AM

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 11:18:04 AM

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !

That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink

[notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all Cheesy

my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 02:21:38 AM

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 29, 2013, 06:11:29 PM

Which way to break, up or down?

I'm saying up Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo

Sounds about right to me.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 29, 2013, 11:26:01 AM

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 11:18:04 AM

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !

That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink

[notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all Cheesy

my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 02:21:38 AM

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Quote from: afbitcoins on April 29, 2013, 06:11:29 PM

Which way to break, up or down?

I'm saying up Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo

afbitcoins

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Which way to break, up or down?

I'm saying up Wink

molecular

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Merit: 1019

Quote from: Frozenlock on April 28, 2013, 08:40:39 PM

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

I heard triangles are trend continuation patterns. Trend before triangle start was up, so in the case at hand that was correct.

phoenix1

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Activity: 798

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Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 11:18:04 AM

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !

That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 06:29:39 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 29, 2013, 06:09:33 AM

Good call Arepo Wink

thanks

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

You called that pretty well! Yes I agree there's way too much bearishness, I still keep getting wierd bearish impulses myself even hehehe. Its a fine line between the bull and bear scenarios just now.

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: phoenix1 on April 29, 2013, 06:09:33 AM

Good call Arepo Wink

thanks

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Good call Arepo Wink

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

b-b-breakout! right on schedule.

also, some not-so-rigorous musings:

Quote from: arepo on April 29, 2013, 02:21:38 AM

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

we'll seee...

-arepo

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

Quote from: Frozenlock on April 28, 2013, 08:40:39 PM

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

yes, but not necessarily. this has been brought up many times in this thread. i really don't put much stock in the 'standard intuition' of direction based upon the shape of the triangle. it is too subjective to market conditions and is not rigorous enough. i trust directional signals from the many indicators i've tested much more.

this is also why i tried to show the triangle formations in the DPO and TRIX oscillators that are a quite different (and much more bullish) shape, because they also represent the data. price data alone can be misleading.

a brief defense of my bullish interpretation:

(1) Chaikin money flow at highs not seen since the peak at $165
(2) MACD made full recovery into positive zone for the first time since that same peak and crash, and also shows the same bullish triangle consolidation pattern.
(3) CCI and Ultimate Oscillators both show a bullish 50-line bounce during the consolidation

Quote from: Frozenlock on April 28, 2013, 08:40:39 PM

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

short answer -- yes, but the market seems bullish.

--arepo

Frozenlock

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Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 4. (Read 14526 times)