The sell orders on clarkmoody are still creeping up. The buys are still creeping down. I am holding my base BTC's and sold some bought at higher levels as I don't want to take a chance should we retest the 50-70 range. I am hoping we do go back down there so I can double up what I sold off. If not, live and learn...
IAS
Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections - page 3. (Read 14526 times)
I'm not talking about manipulation. Just someone with lots of coin ( that they have acquired at very low prices) that feels like cashing in a few... thousand... and the cost is almost nothing to him.
i think i understand what you're saying -- for fear of talking at cross purposes, let me clarify what i meant:
say he picks a 'bad time' to dump -- the worst time would be at a market bottom. if he does so, there is a 'cost' of lost profits. also, if the market is 'ready to go up', a dump is just going to be picked up by smart sellers, and there would be very little effect at all.
as such, buyers and sellers don't really have a direct effect on the price, but mesh with 'market conditions' to produce the effect on the price. following from this, you don't have to predict the individual actions of large players, just anticipate the possible effects of any action on present market conditions (which are given by some methods of TA).
--arepo
You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.
again, the basis of my argument against the perceived 'absolute power' or manipulators, or even just traders with large amounts of capital proportional to the market cap, is that the self-regulating nature of the market makes direct price manipulation proportionally expensive to its magnitude.
this being said, it shouldn't necessarily "break" the various methods of TA. for instance, it's interesting that the large move was timed perfectly with the triangle consolidation. these moves are more predictable than you think.
--arepo
I'm not talking about manipulation. Just someone with lots of coin ( that they have acquired at very low prices) that feels like cashing in a few... thousand... and the cost is almost nothing to him.
You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.
again, the basis of my argument against the perceived 'absolute power' or manipulators, or even just traders with large amounts of capital proportional to the market cap, is that the self-regulating nature of the market makes direct price manipulation proportionally expensive to its magnitude.
this being said, it shouldn't necessarily "break" the various methods of TA. for instance, it's interesting that the large move was timed perfectly with the triangle consolidation. these moves are more predictable than you think.
--arepo
Broke out the wrong way
Again stop using triangles dammit.
why should i? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.
--arepo
You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.
I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.
That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something
That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something
yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.
also, you saved me precisely no time, because while it may seem 'obvous' that your hypothetical explanation is correct, it is not rigorous enough -- only a fool should be so sure of why any particular price movement occurs.
--arepo
Artificially increasing the volatility will only transfer money from them to me. There are lots of other market makers that feel the same. In the long run, it will make no difference.
However, this is an excellent example of why no TA is perfect (I know you don't believe this yourself arepo, just picking a teaching moment for new traders). People will do what they want despite what any sane trader would say about the chart. This is because many trade bitcoin who do not understand how to use short time frame TA properly: to make a planned trade more efficiently. Using it speculatively is very risky when you look at short time frames.
People were expecting new money to come with new week but that didn't happen due to holiday coming, so price dropped from initial rally from yesterday. Silk road situation probably added to that, then panic etc..
No way nobody can calculate will this or that wall stay there in such a wild market like this one is. We can only guess and pray to be lucky.
No way nobody can calculate will this or that wall stay there in such a wild market like this one is. We can only guess and pray to be lucky.
I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.
That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something
That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something
yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.
also, you saved me precisely no time, because while it may seem 'obvous' that your hypothetical explanation is correct, it is not rigorous enough -- only a fool should be so sure of why any particular price movement occurs.
--arepo
Broke out the wrong way
Again stop using triangles dammit.
why not? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.
--arepo
I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.
That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something
Broke out the wrong way
Again stop using triangles dammit.
why should i? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.
--arepo
Again stop using triangles dammit.
Broke out the wrong way
we are consolidating very bullishly, and are nearing an upwards breakout:
-===-
*10-day 1-hour scale*
-===-
notes:
(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.
here's some direct price analysis:
-===-
-===-
top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".
--arepo
-===-
*10-day 1-hour scale*
-===-
notes:
(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.
here's some direct price analysis:
-===-
-===-
top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".
--arepo
I tend to agree with you that we are nearing a breakout. Judging by past activity, I've seen too many of these upward and steady climbs on relatively low volume, followed by a breakout to think it will be a breakdown. Now, if it had happened shortly after the fall down, and been shorter in duration, I would say it's a toss up. But, considering our normal volatility, what we are seeing with the slow climb is promising. (again, as usual)
As that guy from the bitcoin channel said, the thing that stands out is how we broke through the two high volume days, where we formed those hammer like candlestick patterns after the "crash" down. Those big red candles those first two days were on half the volume as the "hammers" were. We are basically sitting at the top of that first hammer and what appears like a support level that was formed before we exploded up.
The market, again as the bitcoin channel guy has explained, looks like it is weakening to me, if I am interpreting it correctly. The sell side is slowly creeping up and the buy side is slowly creeping down. All the while we are maintaining price. It is not a good sign but hard to interpret. Any ideas about the market?
Enjoying,
IAS
Never seen it touch 130$ these days: do you think that will be a strong support in this short-term downtrend ?
(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job
)
(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job
)it was below 130$ 2 days ago.
Take arepo with reserve though, he's all good in drawing the lines and fancy talk but when it comes to prices he's gambling just like anyone who doesn't look at charts at all. He just put it in borders where he can always say he wasn't wrong - like it will be between 120-160.
Never seen it touch 130$ these days: do you think that will be a strong support in this short-term downtrend ?
(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job )
(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job
) Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.
You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?
I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings. You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?
i try to avoid posting price targets publicly, but the key levels here as we're just pulling out of a short downtrend are just the previous highs -- this is generally where we will encounter resistance:
-===-
-===-
$148, $162, $166
if we get past $166 this would be very bullish and we could overshoot to around $180. however, the market is overbought in the short-term so it is likely that we bounce off of $166 and correct slightly first.
--arepo
Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.
You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?
I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings. You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?
we are consolidating very bullishly, and are nearing an upwards breakout:
-===-
*10-day 1-hour scale*
-===-
notes:
(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.
here's some direct price analysis:
-===-
-===-
top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".
--arepo
-===-
*10-day 1-hour scale*
-===-
notes:
(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.
here's some direct price analysis:
-===-
-===-
top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".
--arepo
Thanks Arepo, all the extra insight is appreciated.
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