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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 113. (Read 808905 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 03:58:44 PM
Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.

+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov

Nowhere near 2 BTC/share worth of profit. Not even close. Especially if AM's hashrate is going to keep dropping to zero.

Friedcat should just cut his losses and close his business. He is bound to fail. In fact no-one can make any money running ASIC mining devices. BTC. People should just quit mining, it is no use, Bitcoin is doomed! Roll Eyes

Your failure to understand even simple logic is really quite impressive.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 501
September 15, 2013, 03:57:55 PM
Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.

+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov

Nowhere near 2 BTC/share worth of profit. Not even close. Especially if AM's hashrate is going to keep dropping to zero.

Friedcat should just cut his losses and close his business. He is bound to fail. In fact no-one can make any money running ASIC mining devices. BTC. People should just quit mining, it is no use, Bitcoin is doomed! Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 03:55:23 PM
I think the reality of the situation is that it is far more profitable to sell Gen 1 hardware than to mine with it.  Profit margins on the USBs are huge (cost ~$1.5 /GH, selling for ~$50+/GH), but I think we all agree that they are not great for a mining operation like AM.  So, it makes sense that FC is not increasing the mining farm right now with Gen1.

So, that being said, hash rate and mining revenue becomes less important, but hardware sales are the focus until Gen2 comes out.  And, at that time, it may be that mining just isn't worthwhile when margins on hardware remain so high.

Hardware sales have dominated the weekly profits for a long time, and they will continue to do so., even as mining revenue decreases in the short term.

Just a quick note - the $1.50/GH figure is for the blades, not the USBs. Those are almost certainly considerably more expensive to produce per GH.

Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.

+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov

Nowhere near 2 BTC/share worth of profit. Not even close. Especially if AM's hashrate is going to keep dropping to zero.
no, but AM's plans don't end in Nov, either.  Are we now setting share price for only what can be made in the next 2 months?  Every other security would be 0.

Of course not, but this is AM's last chance to crank out some value before getting overrun by competition. 2 BTC really is an extremely high price, even with a 10-year horizon.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 15, 2013, 03:54:54 PM
+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov

Nowhere near 2 BTC/share worth of profit. Not even close. Especially if AM's hashrate is going to keep dropping to zero.
no, but AM's plans don't end in Nov, either.  Are we now setting share price for only what can be made in the next 2 months?  Every other security would be 0.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 03:52:52 PM
Vycid you must be seriously invested, for making this a full time job...


General Statistics - binaryFate
Total Time Spent Online:   22 days, 16 hours and 29 minutes

General Statistics - Vycid
Total Time Spent Online:   12 days, 3 hours and 56 minutes.

I've also been registered longer than you have. So how invested must you be?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 15, 2013, 03:51:53 PM
I think the reality of the situation is that it is far more profitable to sell Gen 1 hardware than to mine with it.  Profit margins on the USBs are huge (cost ~$1.5 /GH, selling for ~$50+/GH), but I think we all agree that they are not great for a mining operation like AM.  So, it makes sense that FC is not increasing the mining farm right now with Gen1.

So, that being said, hash rate and mining revenue becomes less important, but hardware sales are the focus until Gen2 comes out.  And, at that time, it may be that mining just isn't worthwhile when margins on hardware remain so high.

Hardware sales have dominated the weekly profits for a long time, and they will continue to do so., even as mining revenue decreases in the short term.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 15, 2013, 03:51:08 PM
Vycid you must be seriously invested, for making this a full time job...
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 03:48:47 PM
Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.

+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov

Nowhere near 2 BTC/share worth of profit. Not even close. Especially if AM's hashrate is going to keep dropping to zero.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 15, 2013, 03:45:22 PM
Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.

+1, however, there is a lot of profit to be made between now and mid-Nov
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 03:44:29 PM
Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

cause he doesn't need the whole dividend to do that.

Actually, he doesn't need all of the profits. He doesn't need any of the dividend. The dividend is what's left over after he reinvests some of the profits.  Wink

so why is asicminer dropping in value? he should be on top of the game right now.

This has a lot to do with it.

Basically, people are coming out of denial about AM ever having serious competition, and are realizing that profit margins are going to drop precipitously very soon.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
September 15, 2013, 02:56:40 PM
Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

cause he doesn't need the whole dividend to do that.

Actually, he doesn't need all of the profits. He doesn't need any of the dividend. The dividend is what's left over after he reinvests some of the profits.  Wink

so why is asicminer dropping in value? he should be on top of the game right now.
Because there is more credible competition for gen 2 than gen 1.  At this point, day to day price movements meaningless until we see who starts shipping or hasing with gen 2 miners in volume first. We won't really know where AM stands until mid-November.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
September 15, 2013, 02:55:25 PM
so why is asicminer dropping in value? he should be on top of the game right now.

what makes you think he isn't? Show us another bitcoin security making more weekly profits than AM.

That does not include volatile prices  Wink
But to answer your question difficulty keeps rising and our network percentage is dropping while waiting for next gen products
Some is offset by franchising so just a waiting game.
(Also competition)
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 15, 2013, 02:52:11 PM
so why is asicminer dropping in value? he should be on top of the game right now.

what makes you think he isn't? Show us another bitcoin security making more weekly profits than AM.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
September 15, 2013, 02:50:34 PM
Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

cause he doesn't need the whole dividend to do that.

Actually, he doesn't need all of the profits. He doesn't need any of the dividend. The dividend is what's left over after he reinvests some of the profits.  Wink

so why is asicminer dropping in value? he should be on top of the game right now.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 15, 2013, 02:39:15 PM
Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

cause he doesn't need the whole dividend to do that.

Actually, he doesn't need all of the profits. He doesn't need any of the dividend. The dividend is what's left over after he reinvests some of the profits.  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 15, 2013, 02:34:18 PM
Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

cause he doesn't need the whole dividend to do that.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
September 15, 2013, 02:22:20 PM
Watch Friedcat flipping switches after block 258048.

I hope he does something, it was creeping back up, but now seems to be slumping again.

I hope we have some serious hardware sales to make up the difference on the dividend next week.  There was a discussion in the other thread about some hardware revenue, I think like 2000+ btc that didn't get included in last week's dividend, so that might help.

Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

This is the only important thing right now.

Glad someone agrees.
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
September 15, 2013, 02:09:47 PM
Watch Friedcat flipping switches after block 258048.

I hope he does something, it was creeping back up, but now seems to be slumping again.

I hope we have some serious hardware sales to make up the difference on the dividend next week.  There was a discussion in the other thread about some hardware revenue, I think like 2000+ btc that didn't get included in last week's dividend, so that might help.

Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.

This is the only important thing right now.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
September 15, 2013, 02:04:47 PM
Watch Friedcat flipping switches after block 258048.

I hope he does something, it was creeping back up, but now seems to be slumping again.

I hope we have some serious hardware sales to make up the difference on the dividend next week.  There was a discussion in the other thread about some hardware revenue, I think like 2000+ btc that didn't get included in last week's dividend, so that might help.

Why don't we forget about the dividend all together and focus on reinvesting the profits into staying competitive.
donator
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1001
September 15, 2013, 03:37:01 AM
It looks like friedcat hasn't been hashing entirely solo lately.
http://blockchain.info/tx/312456452d65828326ce1825e28aef4b45f12ca0bc3f0e830bec47860f6b0980

This is franchising payment made by the franchisee. Payment made after every adjustment of difficulty. These payment should be seen effectively as generated by the hashing rate owned by AM. There will be more payments to be expected, as the diff just adjusted only hours ago.
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