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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 111. (Read 808847 times)

hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
September 16, 2013, 08:22:30 PM
So, here is what I've been thinking....Friedcat is moving all the old hardware out to the franchisors offsite locations.
We saw some significant btc rolling in from those "leases" when the difficulty increased....and that would explain the solo mining hashrate stagnation/drop.

He maybe doesn't quite have the new hardware yet so he is hashing minimally to keep the shareholders from shitting their pants any more than they already are...and possibly making space for the new gen(?)

He isn't going to wait until the entire new gen arrives and plug it in, he likely doesn't have space or power resources for that.
So, it makes sense to move out the old and blend in the new as it rolls in.







hero member
Activity: 525
Merit: 500
September 16, 2013, 08:07:28 PM
You're a fucking moron. Do a google search for "biggest company". Wikipedia, CNN Money,  Forbes - all use revenue.

Don't attempt to backpedal with some "oh, well, only value matters" argument. You said "size", I responded to that, then you attacked me for my ignorance, despite the fact you were clearly demonstrating your own, and that I provided evidence you were incorrect.

The point here is - 10% margin is quite good, on average. That is fact.

(Do a google search for "most valuable company" too.)

Are you really employed? Can you communicate with others in a work situation? I highly doubt it.

When someone referred to largest company in the world most of us I'm sure knew what he meant, and I'm betting you knew what he meant, but you had to add your qualifier after the fact, largest BY REVENUE, to prove (to yourself at least) you were right, again, as always.

Not that any are needed but there are plenty of authoritative sources that show YOU ARE WRONG eg Financial Times call Apple no 1. International Business Times list Exxon, Apple, Google, Microsoft.

You're fond of linking to investopedia, so stick this up your a** http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/is-apple-really-the-largest-company-ever-aapl-msft-xom-ptr0821.aspx.

(go on, twist it any way you choose)

Oh, and have you seen a doctor yet? Seriously, you need to talk to someone, it will be good for your long term investing, work and social life etc.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 16, 2013, 03:40:54 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.



Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

That's the best you can come up with?  Roll Eyes It was an implicit statement; and a fairly obvious one at that. Valuation is the pillar from which all investment discussions and analysis flows, ask anyone in the finance industry what the largest company is and they'll list companies by market cap, not revenue.



You're a fucking moron. Do a google search for "biggest company". Wikipedia, CNN Money,  Forbes - all use revenue.

Don't attempt to backpedal with some "oh, well, only value matters" argument. You said "size", I responded to that, then you attacked me for my ignorance, despite the fact you were clearly demonstrating your own, and that I provided evidence you were incorrect.

The point here is - 10% margin is quite good, on average. That is fact.

(Do a google search for "most valuable company" too.)
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
September 16, 2013, 03:10:40 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.



Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

That's the best you can come up with?  Roll Eyes It was an implicit statement; and a fairly obvious one at that. Valuation is the pillar from which all investment discussions and analysis flows, ask anyone in the finance industry what the largest company is and they'll list companies by market cap, not revenue.

ajk
donator
Activity: 447
Merit: 250
September 16, 2013, 02:40:04 PM
I wouldn't know the feeling considering that I dont work for anyone but myself.. im done this is what I get for giving my attention to someone who is just online all day
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 16, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
so even when your out and about you are staring at your phone, thats healthy to..

I'm also on-call 24/7. The semi industry is not for the faint of heart.

(Or the sane/healthy, I guess.)
ajk
donator
Activity: 447
Merit: 250
September 16, 2013, 02:36:37 PM
so even when your out and about you are staring at your phone, thats healthy to..
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 16, 2013, 02:35:26 PM
Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.

QFT. I dont get how some of these people are online all day all night, the ones that continuously post.. its almost like they dont even sleep. we get it dude you honestly need a better way of making money cause the amount some of you guys are online is unhealthy

Smartphone.

A lot of people argue with me directly or make inane statements about my credibility and I am not in the habit of ignoring them.
ajk
donator
Activity: 447
Merit: 250
September 16, 2013, 02:34:11 PM
Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.

QFT. I dont get how some of these people are online all day all night, the ones that continuously post.. its almost like they dont even sleep. we get it dude you honestly need a better way of making money cause the amount some of you guys are online is unhealthy
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1018
Buzz App - Spin wheel, farm rewards
September 16, 2013, 02:25:40 PM
Maybe we should just rename this thread "Vycid proposes that ASICMINER is over-valued' .  Because it seems like that is the majority of the posts here. Perhaps you should start your own thread Vycid.  Or at least cut posts your to just one per page or something. Your posts are reasonable and fair Vycid, but the volume is bit too much.... How many of your 168+ posts have been in either this thread or the other? Really what is the purpose of this. Do you have a regular forum account you use and then this Vycid account specifically for just going on every-day about how you think Asicminer is on the brink of failure etc etc?  I'm somewhat curious.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 16, 2013, 01:15:20 PM
I very much doubt that AM can produce a USB miner for 50 cents.

Here's one attempt to go through the components on the USB Block Erupter and looking up the part codes on Digikey:

Top left: NXP Semiconductor 74HC574 (octal D-type flip-flop), about 0.12 USD
Top middle: Atmel ATTiny2313 (8 bit microcontroller), about 0.72 USD
Top right: Silicon Laboratories CP2102 (USB to UART interface), about 2.30 USD
Bottom right: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor AOZ1021 (3A synchronous buck regulator), about 0.50 USD

So that's $3.64 for the non-ASIC ICs only. Add to that: Block Erupter chip, PCB, heatsink, USB connector. Not sure what these parts cost, but I'd say they add up to at least an additional $1.36, which brings up the total marginal cost to $5, or $15/GH - ie. 10 times the $1.5/GH figure.

That's a 60% profit margin.

even at 60% profit margin, that's pretty good, considering how many they sold at .5 btc or better.

Has anyone done a similar breakdown with the components of the blades?

Even at 60% profit margin, it makes no sense to mine with this hardware if you have sellers (which I assume they do, as they keep selling out).
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 16, 2013, 12:41:53 PM

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.



Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

Just wanted to back this up with some data, so you don't make a bigger fool out of yourself by arguing over semantics.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html

I invite everyone to google "biggest company" and see what comes up.

Anyone else want to attack my credibility?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 16, 2013, 12:15:58 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.



Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 16, 2013, 11:37:22 AM
Let's look at the USB miners.  if cost is $1.5 /GH, and they have .33 GH, then their cost is $.5. At .1 btc per USB, the revenue is ($12.5-.5= $12). $12 is 96% of $12.5.

Is my math right?  96% profit margin (ignoring shipping) on the USBs at .1 btc?

How many did they sell at 2 btc and 1 btc?

And if the blades are $15 to make, and sell for 4 btc ($500), then they have a profit margin of 97%.

I think my math must be wrong somewhere...

If all of this is true (I am doubting it myself), then even if they match Cointerra's vaporware prices of $3/GH, then they are still 50% profit margin.  The cost for Gen 2 might be less, as well.

No wonder FC is selling hardware instead of mining with it.  Mining isn't profitable enough!
I very much doubt that AM can produce a USB miner for 50 cents.

Here's one attempt to go through the components on the USB Block Erupter and looking up the part codes on Digikey:

Top left: NXP Semiconductor 74HC574 (octal D-type flip-flop), about 0.12 USD
Top middle: Atmel ATTiny2313 (8 bit microcontroller), about 0.72 USD
Top right: Silicon Laboratories CP2102 (USB to UART interface), about 2.30 USD
Bottom right: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor AOZ1021 (3A synchronous buck regulator), about 0.50 USD

So that's $3.64 for the non-ASIC ICs only. Add to that: Block Erupter chip, PCB, heatsink, USB connector. Not sure what these parts cost, but I'd say they add up to at least an additional $1.36, which brings up the total marginal cost to $5, or $15/GH - ie. 10 times the $1.5/GH figure.

That's a 60% profit margin.

Can we be sure that those parts aren't cheaper in China when bought in bulk?
The quoted prices are bulk prices. Price per unit for 10,000 pieces.

I don't see why a Chinese IC manufacturer would sell 10,000 pieces to ASICMiner for much less than what they can get for it in the rest of the world. Unless the IC company in question is run by the state, they want the highest price they can get.

Even if we assume AM can get the parts 10% cheaper (and I don't think they can), that would still be $3.28 for ICs only.

I'm not sure of anything, but again I'm not presenting this as the absolute truth, only what seems to be most likely.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 16, 2013, 11:08:42 AM
Can we be sure that those parts aren't cheaper in China when bought in bulk?

China is the place to be when designing/manufacturing electronics. You can't get stuff cheaper anywhere in the world today. So I'm pretty sure that friedcat is getting the parts cheaper...

He explicitly said that their advantage regarding manufacturing cost was invincibleCool
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
September 16, 2013, 11:02:24 AM
Can we be sure that those parts aren't cheaper in China when bought in bulk?

China is the place to be when designing/manufacturing electronics. You can't get stuff cheaper anywhere in the world today. So I'm pretty sure that friedcat is getting the parts cheaper...
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
September 16, 2013, 10:56:55 AM
Let's look at the USB miners.  if cost is $1.5 /GH, and they have .33 GH, then their cost is $.5. At .1 btc per USB, the revenue is ($12.5-.5= $12). $12 is 96% of $12.5.

Is my math right?  96% profit margin (ignoring shipping) on the USBs at .1 btc?

How many did they sell at 2 btc and 1 btc?

And if the blades are $15 to make, and sell for 4 btc ($500), then they have a profit margin of 97%.

I think my math must be wrong somewhere...

If all of this is true (I am doubting it myself), then even if they match Cointerra's vaporware prices of $3/GH, then they are still 50% profit margin.  The cost for Gen 2 might be less, as well.

No wonder FC is selling hardware instead of mining with it.  Mining isn't profitable enough!
I very much doubt that AM can produce a USB miner for 50 cents.

Here's one attempt to go through the components on the USB Block Erupter and looking up the part codes on Digikey:

Top left: NXP Semiconductor 74HC574 (octal D-type flip-flop), about 0.12 USD
Top middle: Atmel ATTiny2313 (8 bit microcontroller), about 0.72 USD
Top right: Silicon Laboratories CP2102 (USB to UART interface), about 2.30 USD
Bottom right: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor AOZ1021 (3A synchronous buck regulator), about 0.50 USD

So that's $3.64 for the non-ASIC ICs only. Add to that: Block Erupter chip, PCB, heatsink, USB connector. Not sure what these parts cost, but I'd say they add up to at least an additional $1.36, which brings up the total marginal cost to $5, or $15/GH - ie. 10 times the $1.5/GH figure.

That's a 60% profit margin.

Can we be sure that those parts aren't cheaper in China when bought in bulk?
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1008
September 16, 2013, 10:44:18 AM
Let's look at the USB miners.  if cost is $1.5 /GH, and they have .33 GH, then their cost is $.5. At .1 btc per USB, the revenue is ($12.5-.5= $12). $12 is 96% of $12.5.

Is my math right?  96% profit margin (ignoring shipping) on the USBs at .1 btc?

How many did they sell at 2 btc and 1 btc?

And if the blades are $15 to make, and sell for 4 btc ($500), then they have a profit margin of 97%.

I think my math must be wrong somewhere...

If all of this is true (I am doubting it myself), then even if they match Cointerra's vaporware prices of $3/GH, then they are still 50% profit margin.  The cost for Gen 2 might be less, as well.

No wonder FC is selling hardware instead of mining with it.  Mining isn't profitable enough!
I very much doubt that AM can produce a USB miner for 50 cents.

Here's one attempt to go through the components on the USB Block Erupter and looking up the part codes on Digikey:

Top left: NXP Semiconductor 74HC574 (octal D-type flip-flop), about 0.12 USD
Top middle: Atmel ATTiny2313 (8 bit microcontroller), about 0.72 USD
Top right: Silicon Laboratories CP2102 (USB to UART interface), about 2.30 USD
Bottom right: Alpha & Omega Semiconductor AOZ1021 (3A synchronous buck regulator), about 0.50 USD

So that's $3.64 for the non-ASIC ICs only. Add to that: Block Erupter chip, PCB, heatsink, USB connector. Not sure what these parts cost, but I'd say they add up to at least an additional $1.36, which brings up the total marginal cost to $5, or $15/GH - ie. 10 times the $1.5/GH figure.

That's a 60% profit margin.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 504
September 16, 2013, 10:32:08 AM
I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst

Welcome to planet earth  Smiley
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
September 16, 2013, 10:28:20 AM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.

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