Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 129. (Read 808757 times)

This is the official ASICMiner Dividend address: http://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

Each Wednesday, they send that week's mining revenue plus hardware profits (if any) to this address and then send them to all shareholders at once.

Where can we find this information?

Very close! 0.01404192 BTC/share

eh?

Anyway my div prediction: 0.014

LOL at the 'Public note' spam on the ASICMiner Div Address today:

"Public Note: Hello, dear Sir! Please read the short text at this link - http://[removed].blogspot.com/. You REALY can help! Great thank you!"

So many haters - Not sure if I'm the first to congrats but - good call Vycid. You were spot on and filling up on puts from 3.0 all the way up

I believe fair value at this point has been reached.  Dividend size (unless an extreme #) will have a much smaller impact on the AM price for the next several weeks than it has traditionally.

Those who believe AM will not be able to keep up with the next wave of ASIC technology have sold, while bulls have added to their position. Bulls will be unphased by a drop in dividends since it will only be seen as bullish to them since it means increased R&D.  The bear argument of a decrease in dividends is obvious.

I believe the only two things will move the share price significantly in the next couple months:
1. Any news about the new AM hardware (specs and when it will be delivered)
2. Any news (good or bad) about the competition.  This especially goes for the new batch of unproven unknowns with big promises such as bitfury, cointerra and hashfast.  If they deliver on schedule, AM will drop well below 2.  If they start announcing missing specs or deadlines, this will benefit AM.  News of a serial disappointment such as BFL actually delivering on such projects as the Monarch will pummel AM, but I would think that is as probable to occur as the sun going supernova by the end of the year.  I do predict a lot of whining by those who BFL duped towards the end of the year, but I suspect there will not be much sympathy for them on the boards.  Afterall, full us once shame on you, full us twice.....

I personally believe friedcat will deliver and add the majority of his new hashing power in November and December, with sales to the community of this news higher performing hardware not until February. His emphasis will be on improving the network hash percantage of asicminer rather than selling to the miner community.  To me, if you want to decide if AM will recover or continue its tailspin, your real focus needs to be on the competitors, both individually and collectively. 

I cannot say where Asicminer will be in January 2014, except to say it will be either much higher or lower than it is currently.

My prediction: In January 2014 this will either be go below 1.25 or back above 4.5.  If there were long-dated options available in AM, I would say play the volatility and buy both Out-of-the money call and puts. Sadly, know such options exist, so either pick a side or go to the sidelines if you cannot tolerate volatility.

Damn straight. My money is where my mouth is. I have never hidden the fact that I own a short position.

I own a short position because it's rational, not because I particularly enjoy seeing you all getting fucked over. In fact, I'd really rather see the small guys get out before the whales do, but there isn't much more I can do to influence your decisions.

As for the volume and thought behind the posts - I work harder than you do. I spend a lot more time thinking about my investments. I try to understand the market as a system, try to understand the factors that drive its movements. Sometimes those factors aren't all rational, which is why it can be so educational to see your viewpoints.

Ultimately it does pay off, and I do end up with an edge on the market - even in traditional markets, where I have beaten the market every year for the past 5 years (the jury is still out on 2013). The competition is smarter, but there is more information, too.

I'd consider starting a hedge fund, but I have this funny feeling that the moment I take someone else's money I'd immediately lose everything and feel like a prick.

Edit: Oh, yeah, and I'm self-aware enough to admit that I like the attention. So what? Go fuck yourself. At least I'm not Mircea Popescu.

Well he spent some time accumulating ASICMINER put options, which allow him to profit if the price goes down. If you search his post history you can see a number of posts where he is trying to buy puts.

One example: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2976781

-helixone

He cares about us all and likes all the attention 

I'd be happy with 0.01 per share. If that's as low as it ever got, that would still be an amazing return for 2-3 BTC/share and solid for 4-5 BTC/share (when comparing to traditional investment opportunities). If it goes lower than 0.01... well, that would cause investor distress without some kind of calming message from Friedcat and co.

Why does Vycid post here 10x per day? Has someone hired him to post negative messages about AM all day as a full-time job? Fairly well written comments, even if negative and unceasing.

I am hoping ,someday, the dividend will include three parts:  mining revenue\sales\franchising mining income.     
That will be excited!

Dividend predication anyone

Even with the low end, this is still exciting times for us who are still with the AM shares ;-)

Looking at couple of the major group buy holders as well as mining rate, I suspect we'll be at about 0.010 - 0.012 per share. We are a little less in terms of last weeks mining revenue, and sales wise with the prices being dropped (both USB erupters and blades), that number is also a little less.

I am hoping for some surprise inclusions from both (mining revenue) Gen2/testing hardware and rental income. Though this is very unlikely if they are using the funds for research and development for future hardware.

This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking. Friedcat was pretty happy with how the last round of the ASIC battle went, using this strategy. I don't see any compelling reason to change it now, especially when everyone else is racing for 28nm.

I imagine that's what he meant by space.

Hopefully another small div this week, shake a few more weak hands out, then make sure you're fully loaded for F-Day.

"There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October."

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2984489

I saw some very large spikes in the ASICMINER hash rate over the past couple days, seems to me that he may be testing units. It's only Sept. 3rd...

Because it is only the third day in that two-month period.

FC said he will deploy expotentially in September and Qctober. But why FC is still not deploying?