Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 126. (Read 808847 times)

First time ever ,our sex Cat going to post a advertisement over this forum!!!!
It probably be to advertising its 2 Gen chips!!! and new products!~~

  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3105051
I think it's a sign

Very good average performing last hours.. 

Oh my, ASICMINER, you're making me blush!

Just another months, Guys, you should know the answer , it could be 1 PH coming its way or nothing happen.
for whom dump the shares right now , is mean give up its possible future income, for myself I have no reason to  believe that FC will not made his promises.
 

Nice.

Yes, please setup a separate thread to discuss.

Bit of a lucky streak last six hours.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not (I think you may be one of the people I options from... sorry), but if it isn't I appreciate the sentiment.

The biggest motivation for me to start a fund is to more easily leverage the short side on BTC securities. That is a significant competitive edge. If the fund has lots of provable assets to cover positions, people might more willingly accept short shares in lieu of direct shares.

Very recently I have been exploring the idea of starting a "short derivatives" platform. The idea is that I would pick up large futures contracts from people seeking major AM positions - so, for example, I would offer to sell someone 100 shares in 6 months at about the current market price - say 2.2 BTC. This is an obligation, not an option, the exchange must occur, so the contracts would only be written with trustworthy individuals and would be partially collateralized in escrow to minimize counterparty risk.

Then I can repackage this as short positions for sale to the public. The derivatives work like this:

Joe opens a 5-share "short" position. The minimum initial margin requirement is 20% of the base share value, plus 0.1 BTC per share. So if the position is opened at 2.2 BTC/share, he has to put in 5 * (0.2 * 2.2 + 0.1) = 2.7 BTC.

Then, say the share price goes up, to 2.5 BTC. Joe's total loss is 0.3 BTC/share, or 1.5 BTC. The margin maintenance requirements are liabilities + 10% of base share price, so 1.5 + 0.1 * 5 * 2.5 = 2.75, which is greater than 2.7 BTC. Joe will get a margin call and will need to either add money or close his position within 24 hours. If the liabilities ever come within 10% of the balance, the position will be closed immediately.

Dividends will be subtracted from available cash, so investors are also responsible for maintaining their balances.

On the other hand, if share prices go down by 0.2 to 2.0 BTC/share, Joe is not obligated to do anything. If he closes his position, he gets 0.2/share, or 1 BTC total (minus some service fee, naturally).

Basically, I want to use futures contracts with major holders to underwrite a kind of short derivative.

All of this would require a robust webapp.

If people are interested in this let me know. This market desperately needs adequate opportunities for short interest.


I agree, but I am also ignoring factors like future competition. We cannot say "the companies are collectively worth 3M" if all of the companies that will want a piece of that pie do not exist yet, or have not entered the market yet.

If BTC turns out to be "the big thing", and transaction volumes (and fees) reflect that, that does not necessarily bode well for companies like AM, which might get crushed under the heels of behemoths like Intel or IBM.

The quoted market cap only takes into account the scarcity of bitcoins and neglects the scarcity of transaction volume. A bitcoin is worth nothing if you can't transact it.

Unfortunately at the moment it is impossible to estimate the net worth of 50GB (max. ~1 year) of blockchain data. In any event, owning mining stocks or equipment is a way to get exposure to that speculative asset (albeit the rapid expansion of network strength depreciates equipment, making companies or intellectual property in that area a safer choice).

Thus, one may argue, a 3 million market cap for mining companies underestimates the long term worth of that sector.

I very strongly disagree with the argument that this has anything to do with how much money is around.

Half of the bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined, I believe, leaving about 10M.

So, even if companies average 30% margin long term (I believe it will be much more competitive,  10-20%) it would only take ~3 million market cap across all companies to meet, if not exceed, fair value.

And very recently AM ALONE had a market cap of 2M at 5 BTC per share. So clearly there is plenty of money to get a company valued at whatever insane price you like, and it wouldn't take much to get it fairly valued either.

It is true that the market cap of something like Labcoin is very low, but they don't have a product yet. When it is clear which companies are going to be competitive,  we will see reasonable valuation.

In the short-term, difficulty overshoot and negative profitability may kill some of the little guys, so that's yet another reason to be cautious with your money.

He's working. At this point, a year after the IPO and 2000% growth, you either believe in Friedcat's abilities or you don't.

I don't want any more announcements until new shit is in place and / or ready to sell. I don't need weekly reassurance, and I don't want plans leaking to competitors. I like the opportunities provided by panic and capitulation. I want Friedcat doing what Friedcat does, which is executing better than anyone else in the game.

Guys what happened to this week's update?  , Did I miss something? I checked F.C. profile. Nothing..... 

Clap clap! This is the best argument I read while ago.  

Is hard to keep that in mind Jutarul, because we learnt economics in a inflation world. That's why is always nice to read things like this, too keep the mind fresh.

I disagree. bitcoin as proper "money" has a price. Thus investment opportunities have to compete with the price of money.

Your perception has been altered by the fact that we live in an era of "cheap" credit, where banks and people "throw" money at any investment opportunity they can. The fiat money we have today doesn't have a price anymore. In fact, the price of fiat money is negative. In a commodity money system like bitcoin, the price of money is positive.

addendum: Actually there are strong indications that we live in a money price apartheid, where a selected group of individuals has access to money without a price (big inflation), while all others pay an ever increasing price for money (deflation).

I think all of these mining stocks are undervalued.  There just isn't enough money in the system to support the 'proper' prices. So, for now they remain immensely profitable.  Not enough people know about these stocks, or perhaps are concerned about putting their money in 'virtual' exchanges that theoretically give you no legal rights (according to the TOS)

Please let us know if you reconsider the idea, it would be quite nice to invest into a fund managed by you!

Me,either believing in him too ..I think may be FC's 2 gen chips isn't as fast as others ,but I am quite confident that FC has superior cost advantage, due to low electricity and manufacturing cost in China.

I also believing that he has the ability to deploying more hashrate , the reason he hasn't, is because he is waiting for his 2 gen chips into mass production, for people who think this investment is suck , please quoted that even AM's dividend has dropped sharply, it still the asset paying highest dividend in the public exchange.  I bet once FC finally deployed his 1PH, we will see the share price may back to 4 again, for all people sale at 2BTC, that is not a smart move.

Done
/handshake

I firmly believe in Friedcat...he is being quiet right now because he is busy working on the next big thing.

Wait until he makes the next major announcement...you can be sure that it will be nothing short of "game changing".

Div's are great as they are, but I think they will come back to a new ATH once he is done withholding and new hardware is for sale.