ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 151.

TheJuice

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Merit: 608

Quote from: Rival on August 13, 2013, 08:33:16 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 13, 2013, 08:23:01 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 13, 2013, 08:09:05 PM

Quote from: hlynur on August 13, 2013, 07:18:24 PM

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

people want hardware. AM has hardware and is shipping right now. That's what the prediction is based on.

I don't know that we will see .05, but I think we will certainly see .04, and set a new high.

For this week, we'll be closer to .025 - .03, next week should be .03 or better.

Wait, what? People wanted hardware back when block erupters cost 50 BTC per blade and AM was making a killing on each unit. Why exactly is the dividend going to be bigger now, with lower margins and the competition on the doorstep?

Volume.

Here is one group buy: https://blockchain.info/address/1BywWhaLuHfoK4Hwi2ppPVRSCsxRb91cAS?offset=50&filter=0

Over 3k BTC in the past week. A conservative guess is this is 2k BTC profit for ASICMINER.

0.005 BTC/share from one group buy. There are probably 5 group buys, maybe not this large. But that could easily be 0.025 BTC/share over 2 weeks. Unclear exactly when these will be put into the dividends.

I'd imagine next dividend (tomorrow) is .012 mining + 0.0125 sales = 0.0245.

Franktank

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Quote from: hlynur on August 13, 2013, 07:18:24 PM

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

I could've meant it as a cumulative dividend. Tongue

With everything that's happening, you could argue either way for whatever you do hear. August is before all the mining machines supposedly ship. Just a hunch, nothing more.

Rival

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Activity: 504

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Quote from: Vycid on August 13, 2013, 08:23:01 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 13, 2013, 08:09:05 PM

Quote from: hlynur on August 13, 2013, 07:18:24 PM

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

people want hardware. AM has hardware and is shipping right now. That's what the prediction is based on.

I don't know that we will see .05, but I think we will certainly see .04, and set a new high.

For this week, we'll be closer to .025 - .03, next week should be .03 or better.

Wait, what? People wanted hardware back when block erupters cost 50 BTC per blade and AM was making a killing on each unit. Why exactly is the dividend going to be bigger now, with lower margins and the competition on the doorstep?

Volume.

Vycid

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: velacreations on August 13, 2013, 08:09:05 PM

Quote from: hlynur on August 13, 2013, 07:18:24 PM

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

people want hardware. AM has hardware and is shipping right now. That's what the prediction is based on.

I don't know that we will see .05, but I think we will certainly see .04, and set a new high.

For this week, we'll be closer to .025 - .03, next week should be .03 or better.

Wait, what? People wanted hardware back when block erupters cost 50 BTC per blade and AM was making a killing on each unit. Why exactly is the dividend going to be bigger now, with lower margins and the competition on the doorstep?

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: hlynur on August 13, 2013, 07:18:24 PM

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

people want hardware. AM has hardware and is shipping right now. That's what the prediction is based on.

I don't know that we will see .05, but I think we will certainly see .04, and set a new high.

For this week, we'll be closer to .025 - .03, next week should be .03 or better.

hlynur

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 501

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

first time posting here...so please correct me if i've got something wrong

on what is your prediction based on?
imo a lot is changing soon with the new startups and 2nd gen mining knocking on the door
(though these miners will probably be distributed at the earliest during late fall/ winter)
shortterm looks good with more hardware sales for asicminer but I have no clue on midterm to longterm prediction.

Do you assume avalon and cointerra and several others don't stand up for what they promise while asicminer
will stay in the background until friedcat suddenly shows up with a nice product?
Or will shareprice sink so low that higher dividends are used to push it up again?

sonikku13

full member

Activity: 134

Merit: 100

I'm just gonna keep chucking my Bitcoins I get from Litecoin mining and exchanging them into Bitcoins into ASICMINER, because they pay a healthy dividend, even at these inflated share prices. I'll chuck in the boat, which is money I have saved in stocks such as AT&T and Dow Chemical, plus any spare money I make, if the share price goes below BTC2.5, unless it doesn't go below that before 2017. I'm assuming Bitcoin will not go mainstream, which is why I'm planning to dump my ASICMINER shares in December 2016. If Bitcoin goes mainstream, transaction fees will cover the halving of the block reward in 2017, so I won't dump my ASICMINER shares.

Vycid

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

You're betting on Friedcat being dumb. He would never pay a dividend that extreme - better to keep the money in his piggy bank for a rainy week. Unstable divs are bad news for the share price.

Not to mention there are a lot of rainy weeks for AM in the not so distant future.

freedomno1

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1090

Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: Franktank on August 13, 2013, 06:51:25 PM

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

Been a while since someone made a prediction
Can you add some Flair to it Whistle Wink

Franktank

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Long Term Div Prediction:

We will see 0.05/share for dividend payout within the next 8 weeks.

pikeadz

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Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: bitcoinarnold on August 13, 2013, 06:37:39 PM

I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

Already did. I am waiting for it to hit 2.5 and I will jump back in. Just not enough room for error in the prices of shares right now. If I buy in at 3.75, it will likely keep going down and the dividend is insignificant right now, given their loss of hashrate as a percentage of the total network.

bitfair

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Activity: 362

Merit: 250

Quote from: bitcoinarnold on August 13, 2013, 06:37:39 PM

I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

I'm not aware of any infrastructure problems right now, and, as far as I know, AM is currently in the process of deploying and selling around 200TH/s of hashing power. I see no reason why anyone would want to "jump ship" other than to let you scoop up cheap shares.

Please elaborate a little on your argument, if'n you please!

bitcoinarnold

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I would def jump ship If I was in ASICMiner right now, their hashrate is unsustainable and their obviously having some infrastructure problems.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 13, 2013, 05:14:15 PM

Meanwhile anybody else noticing the rise of the option play that has been going on for a while? It seemed very few were offered when the exchange allowed them but there have been quite a few significant options for sale here and there (batches of 20, 30, 50, 100s!)

I would wager they are coming from an individual that has thousands of share, for whom controlling the level of the market is not overly difficult. If you do wander down the option path, understand that the type of behavior seen as today (big push down to 3.9 before divs) is exactly the type of play someone with a lot of money or shares can pull (there were few shares that needed to get bought to push the price down)
Always look at volume, and option is a game where the other trader has an incentive to artifially play against you.

I, too, have been noticing these things. With volume so low, someone is able to push the price very easily with relatively few shares.

Whales making splashes.

AMuppInTime

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Activity: 290

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Quote from: bitzox on August 13, 2013, 04:52:53 PM

Comparing money supply to market cap is meaningless.

Not entirely meaningless but the analysis has to be targeted..

Meanwhile anybody else noticing the rise of the option play that has been going on for a while? It seemed very few were offered when the exchange allowed them but there have been quite a few significant options for sale here and there (batches of 20, 30, 50, 100s!)

I would wager they are coming from an individual that has thousands of share, for whom controlling the level of the market is not overly difficult. If you do wander down the option path, understand that the type of behavior seen as today (big push down to 3.9 before divs) is exactly the type of play someone with a lot of money or shares can pull (there were few shares that needed to get bought to push the price down)
Always look at volume, and option is a game where the other trader has an incentive to artifially play against you.

bitzox

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Quote from: ex-trader on August 13, 2013, 03:36:28 PM

And eventually the world will work out that 13% of all the available Bitcoins = 13% x 9.5m = 1,235,000 BTC

Current Market Value of AM = 1,600,000 BTC

This is largely irrelevant, look at the market cap of US companies compared to the total money supply in the US.

Market Cap for all US companies (2012): 18.7 trillion USD

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc

Total M1 Money Supply (Dec 2012): 2.4 trillion USD

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/

Comparing money supply to market cap is meaningless. Granted their is a tighter link between AM and Bitcoin than the general economy of the US and M1 but that doesn't change the fact that this comparison doesn't really say anything. Using your logic should one be worried that at the end of 2012 Apple's market cap represented 10% of the money supply? Does apple really sell 10% of all products or generate 10% of GDP? Of course not.

superduh

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Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 13, 2013, 04:22:23 PM

Quote from: ex-trader on August 13, 2013, 04:01:35 PM

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

People value a company forward - everything is too easy with hindsight.
The forward value includes fees and other ventures AM might go in, such as hardware sale, manufacturing, distribution, and everything else.

Example: current valuation for Tesla is looking at perfect execution for the next 8-10 years. Meanwhile bears (lingo for "the ones saying it will go down / want it to go down") are saying that "$TSLA isn't worth half it's current valuation by looking at current sales" (paraphrase) - everyone has an agenda, and only the fool blindly listens.

ASIC Miner could buy out some small fish in other Hardware/tech industry.
they have enough coins to make good, smart acquisitions bitcoin or NOT bitcoin 100% related
they could also invest into their competitors thus ensuring mutual prosperity

AMuppInTime

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Quote from: ex-trader on August 13, 2013, 04:01:35 PM

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

People value a company forward - everything is too easy with hindsight.
The forward value includes fees and other ventures AM might go in, such as hardware sale, manufacturing, distribution, and everything else.

Example: current valuation for Tesla is looking at perfect execution for the next 8-10 years. Meanwhile bears (lingo for "the ones saying it will go down / want it to go down") are saying that "$TSLA isn't worth half it's current valuation by looking at current sales" (paraphrase) - everyone has an agenda, and only the fool blindly listens.

velacreations

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Quote from: ex-trader on August 13, 2013, 03:57:04 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 13, 2013, 03:53:31 PM

And who says AM has to stay at 13%? Why not 30%?

Thats my point - at 13% the maths don't work, even adding an extra 50% to mining revenue for hardware as in the post above gets to earnings of 4 BTC over 10-15 years on a 4 BTC investment - wow 0% return......

My point is simple - if AM do not increase their hashrate a lot, the shares are over-valued.....

ok, so you admit that hardware adds a considerable amount of profit, but what about franchising?

With mining, franchising and hardware sales, AM can literally have a hand in over 50% of the network. So, by your own figures, 9.5M /2 = 4.25M btc. Even at 30% of the network, that's 2.85M btc.

Of course, this all ignores fees in the future...

Quote

Mark my words, if AM can get back to 20-40% then all is rosy if not then you'll be seeing big falls in price.

That's the nonsense. When hardware is for sale, mining typically makes up less than 1/2 of the profits. So, if they can continue to sell hardware, and maintain hash at 15%, then it is like they have 30-40% of the network, because that's the kind of profits they are making.

ex-trader

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Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 13, 2013, 03:58:55 PM

Your valuation doesn't hold: you're not buying a finite state, Bitcoins will keep circulating beyond that distribution. You're buying into a company, not into a finite distribution system set to end at a finite time. That means the cash FLOW is the important issue. Just like in real life the valuation of a company is not locked to how much fiat is in circulation (as we all know, cash circulates around).
I agree that there is a link right now, but they are already generating revenue that isn't mined, that should give you an idea of possible expansions they might explore. However, there is a huge risk from the shaky grounds the business is standing on: legal, logistic and so on. There is not much liquidity to move 100 shares so the price we see is still "pretend" regarding current price level seen on exchanges. I totally understand folks hedging their position by selling some shares "while there is some kind of support at said price level".
Again, this has been said much but should be kept in mind by all in here:
Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Discl: I am Long AM, but there's a risky road ahead for many, expect many bumps in the road with weak hands dropping here and there.

The intangible you're talking about is fees and right now they are almost non-existent........

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 151. (Read 808757 times)