Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 237. (Read 808768 times)

That's rich when promoting a company that sells devices at prices that will never return investment. You can't sell ASICs at GPU prices forever and if ASICminer actually relies on those sorts of margins they will be strangled. Friedcat seems like a shrewed guy and I bet he has plenty of tricks up his sleeves, but y'all act like Titantic passengers.

Reposting page 20 with a few additions just making a summary post
No need to read 10 pages when you can just read 1 long post  
Also note chkgk post on page 29

AM will not be beaten that easily  

The competition may be heating up but I don't trust their rivals production capabilities just yet
They are worth noting but unless a product delivers it's just speculation.

Even if a product delivers and is shipped we don't have the information on Friedcats Gen 2 yet
We just know it will blow the current market on ASIC's.

I wouldn't really worry about them being under-powered to the competition until I know the true specs
Worth guessing at but it's not known yet.

They are maintaining the hash rate as well
The more units they produce the more demand and the market will dictate price.

We know they can produce but the question is how much do people want to buy with the knowledge they do deliver and won't make you wait a year or two XD.

A less risky investment than just having mining units
Plus Competition costs to produce hardware are very DAMN important

There will only ever be 400,000 shares and they don't plan on increasing that quantity
Perhaps a stock split but the pass-thrus do that already
So whats not sent to the dividend everyday grows the equity in the company  

For everyday they have the monopoly that equity will grow a bit  
Well we need a financial statement to know how much but it's not as important as seeing results

BFL is not real until they do deliver more than the rare one comparing unicorns to horses, BFL is an accumulate bitcoin scheme that will deliver products when the price of mining with their own units becomes unprofitable while sending out the rare unit now and then to have more people buy into this scheme and in the meantime get to hold the money for free. As can be seen by the 100 dollar upgrade from 5 to 7 G/H
They will then announce more powerful units and toss the old ones away genius.
Pay peanuts, and you get monkeys.

If competition finally appears
Who's to say an Oligopoly doesn't form bwhahahaa

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

People will choose ASICminer as they can be shareholders and get a part of the dividend from buying hardware

Margin is King
If you make super powerful units but make very little from selling them but get a lot of demand or you make simple units using considered old technology and sell a modest amount.
In the end the profits could easily be the same and what matters is simply selling over the margin no matter how much competition their is an ASICMINER holds a competitive advantage on that.

In Friedcat we Trust

Additions
It is not overpriced until real competition proves it can compete with ASICMINER even with these calculations while competitors are moving they are not at a scale large enough to directly affect the share price.

Asicminer sells units and maintains the network hash rate what competitors promise is just imaginary until they can actually do so
Talk has and official value of a great fat 0

Generating money now is more profitable than having something that will not deliver for a year
I was checking the math and your argument on BFL unit presupposes the difference of mining during that one year with current tech
Vs Mining 1 year from now at the predicted difficulty using BFL.
In that vein just buying the equivalent in USB sticks to mine that one year your waiting would be as profitable

If other companies start shipping enough difficulty will also rise faster so first mover edge on competition is lower so its a deadly spiral of difficulty
Think it's cheap now lets see in one year what the real difficulty is
(You could hold some PMB bonds   and save some money on buying these crud units from BFL with its fixed hashing power and save some electricity costs  )

ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.
Not many other companies do

Most investors have considered it too (particularly those with more than "half a brain"), and that it is priced into the share price at the moment. There's no surprise that there will be competition. But AM has enormous competitive advantages - they won't be able to sell at 50 BTC anymore, but their process (130 nm) is most likely cheaper than all competitors, giving them better profit margins on their products.

This will become increasingly important if competition grows

The current monopoly-situation will eventually end, but AM has everything it takes to compete head-on with the competitors (and win) when they eventually arrive.
They have the experience and people know they ship. So I doubt they'll have trouble selling new hardware.
Reputation is very important

The next ASIC generation will come, shall it be KNC, Avalon or ASICMINER generation 2.
History showed us, what they are capable of doing and I have no reason to believe things will change fundamentally soon.


In addition

More competition doesn't necessary lead to reduced hardware profits for ASICminer
If AM sold 1000 blades then the market is 1000 miners a pop i think the demand was much larger than what AM could cover and could absorb more mners than were actually sold.
The margin is what is important
A competitive market with lower prices and revenue would drive the sales way up for AM too
That and AM can ramp up it's production rapidly even on fairly conservative estimates at a cheaper cost due to it's location

ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC

All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

I'll believe it when I see it this becomes increasing harder the higher difficulty rises
Easier to make a dent when your first than after especially if your adding to the difficulty each time too
However if several of them are capable of doing so we got what Friedcat promised us
It will take time to see this occur so the pattern will be seen meaning the share price will adjust accordingly during that transition

The share price factors in this perceived risk as the yields are still very attractive
Could you show how you calculate a fair share price based on your assumptions
I could but it's been done if you do your research no need to teach everything to naive investors who don't attempt their own research
That said
I will say at
0.03376440   /share the yield is 26.48%  Based on dividend's from May 15 to now

You can raise the share price exponentially to determine yield at any given share price
But please do not assume AM has a share price of 0 in a year that would be a bit strange if you compare it to mining.

I'm smelling a bubble pop soon   

And In fact , You trying to comparing competitors mining rigs to what we pay for  the share made more and more non-sense.

Does those companies you mentioned issuing their shares in reachable exchanges ??

Does all people in this forum are interest in mining by themselves ??

If both answer are no, they must be.....AM still the only company in market that producing hardware and mining at same time..

This exclusive dominant is what I called monopoly position , since all of our share holders are take advantage over this monopoly position , Thus we can sell our shares in high price , because If you do not invest in AM , then most likely you will lose your money in BTC stocks market.

The existing of them is true , but how many units they capable to supply to the market? one or two ?

This comparison just like use conceptual car to comparing current car... We all know that one day we will change our car to electricity , does this mean right now electric car has beaten patrol car

The only thing is time , despite the fact of timing , it just non-sense comparison.

Whereas you just want to drive the price up so you can sell them and make a nice fat profit, caring not the slightest for what they're actually worth.

BFL don't have super machines, but they do have better ASICs than AM and Avalon. BitFury currently have the best though. Those ASICs all exist right now. To pretend that they don't is just silly. Ignoring the implications of that can only lead to making poorly informed decisions, like paying too much for shares.

I disagree.  I think when we see blades start selling for lower prices next week, revenue will be back over .03.  It's not like people stopped buying them, anyway, AM stopped sales with demand still on the market.

The fact remains, if you want to start mining next week, there is only one company that can sell you hardware to do that.

just ignore him, he wants to drive the price down so that he can buy cheaper shares.

Again , comparing a future product with superior feature to a current product in the market  is not making any sense for me .
And most people ,in this thread may not interest in  mining by their selves.  Again  a misleading comparison ....

You compare the price of the devices has nothing to do with our shareholder .

You order your super machine from BFL , you wait at home day by day...you received your machine ,you set -up. one day your girlfriend  spill water on it ,your super miners broken ,you investment is gone ....

For us , we invested today , we receiving money each week , we can sold it anytime we want...

Please stop comparing those two totally different things , this make non-sense at all...

Ignored the basic fact , most people in this thread bought their AM shares around 1.5, so the return on investment for most people here is about 55% per year, why the price go so high? This because people who want to invested in BTC stocks market and those AM shareholders are quiet bullish on its long-term succeed ,those people are not selling their AM shares to gain a short-run profit,It indeed that share price will be decrease in the future, but the problem is when ??

If AM continues maintained its past status, then it will generate 55% increase in one years time (if with reinvest than it will be higher).  
After one years time ,if Share price drop by 20% , you sold your shares at 3BTC. this mean you will get investment by X1.55 X2=  For 100BTC after one years ,those shareholders will get 2X1.55= 310.    if you sold your AM shares right now, that you only received 200 BTC, and might lose your BTC in somewhere else.(you buy pre order than you get it 1 years later )( You stupid , you bought large quantity of PMBs contracts)(You go to exchange trading your BTC, then manipulator take your COINs)  


The question is more than clear, that as long as AM maintained its current position , who ever sold their shares at discount price are stupid.

Someone saids competitor is arriving , So what ?

You trying to think that American manufactures and European manufactures can beat China in manufacture industrial ? This assumption ignored the basic fact,  Cost to producing ASICs in China is not as same as those countries.

If AM can produce a same ASIC at $2 and electricity cost at $1 per unit, then the competitor  producing its ASIC at $3 and electricity cost at $2 per unit.

What will happen ? The more the competitor producing  its products and selling those over-priced miners to people. The more loss will be made by those people who bought the miners , because the size of the cake is unchanged.  And I am sure that the cost for AM to produce their product is much much lower than foreign competitors. 

 

I don't see how that will help them though because their ASICs are weak compared to BFL's. For example, in order for both companies to increase the difficulty by about 1 million, the following number of devices would need to be bought online each day:

1 x BFL minirig, or
51 x Blades

Their new chips will likely be at worst, competitive with BFL and at best, competitive with Bitfury and KnC. They're not supposedly due till October though and by then, BFL should be almost through its backlog and KnC should be a month into shipping. Hopefully, BitFury based systems will be also be available for purchase as well.

Including what's already online and what's set to come online, AM have 250 Th/s, Avalon have 250 Th/s (including 150 Th/s from chip sales), BFL have 400 Th/s. Both Avalon and BFL will be continuously be ordering chips for sales. I don't think AM will order any more chips though until the next gen.

Devices from third party manufacturers should outnumber devices from ASIC manufacturers, simply due to their being more of them. Third party manufacturers will ensure that there's enough assembly capacity to handle the supply of chips.

my group began marketing awareness about two weeks ago i'll have to recheck the exact day for you..if and when they uplist the shares on a real exchange(fully reporting) all these shares will be wiped clean..fun game site here imo..thanks

The recent push in price is because people are realizing that there is nowhere left in the land of Bitcoin to park your coins right now except in ASICMINER. Everything else on the market is just mental masturbation or else is charging a management fee to buy ASICMINER shares on your behalf. I don't see that changing over the near to medium term. GPU miners are packing it in and buying shares as these dividends are as close as the common man will get to mining from here on out.  PMBs are a joke - if you're not making the chips, you won't get them until they're irrelevant.

I also don't think we'll see any dividends past 0.02 for months.  ASICMINER got their USB sticks and blades out the door at an almost perfect time, and now that people have been burned on hardware with no practical ROI sales will suffer until we reach some difficulty stability point. And there will be a stability point. This increase will not go on forever, eventually overhead and costs will temper the explosion.

When we do reach that point, efficiency will be king. How ASICMINER does in transitioning to more efficient chips will largely determine whether they survive.  If KNC pulls off a 28nm chip this year, expect trouble.

Too fkn many "if" "but" and "maybe"'s
I still cant find any sales figures for any period of time. I do not mean "we sold 100" or what ever. This information is incomplete hence meaningless.
So they sold N units at price X. What was the cost per unit?
What is the AM's cost structure? What other cost are there?  Salary? Rent? Equipment? Transportation? Security? IT etc...list goes on.
What is spent to cover those costs. What is the future prediction of those costs?
How much they actually collected from the IPO and how much of this coin is still left? Do they have any additional liabilities? etc etc etc.

Without answers to those questions, this whole thread is pointless spit ball contest, circle jerk at best.

So, let me ask this again:

You forget that ASICMINER has had an enormous head start against the competition.

Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.

I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.

you have to be careful with those averages, because they don't tell the whole story.  One major part of that story is that the vast majority of dividends did not include hardware sales.  This will probably not be the case in the future.  Also, if you look at the dividends that do include hardware sales, they are making almost as much on hardware as on mining.

So, while ~.016 is probably an accurate prediction of future mining revenue, I thin it largely ignores future hardware sales.

The point that people keep missing is that the 'value' isn't based on anything except our unwillingness to sell.  You can examine any metric you want, but the real point is that we are trading on a low liquidity exchange.

When the price moves .2 in an hour it has more to do with the fact that nobody is selling, and the only asks were 1 share at the current price and the next ask being .2 away and some guy bought 2 shares.  This is only exacerbated by the fact that we are spread out over 4 different exchanges (btct,havelock,bitfunder and direct)

If nobody is selling, then the 'market' feels that the value of the stock is higher than the current bid.  I (and I'm assuming most people) are perfectly content to collect weekly dividends and let the share price rise as it may.  Even though I would make a large profit by selling at today's prices I feel confident that holding has more value than selling.

Okay guys, I've been reading a lot of questions concerning the recent increase in stock prices and all sorts of questions regarding the stock being under- or overvalued. Here is my take on the issue:

Let's take the average dividend payed each week so far: 0,016358593 btc and multiply it by 52 to get an expected total dividend payment for a year. That leaves us with: 0,850646817 btc.
Now if we divide this by the current share-price of 3,42 we get ~24,87% as the dividend yield for one year.

This is exceptionally high compared to usual company stocks and might thus explain the surge in share prices in the last weeks. Of course, good news such as price reductions for mining hardware etc. play a big role here, too.

Now there are obviously several problems with this explanation:

• I assume that ASICMINER is indeed capable of keeping their share of the overall hashrate constant over the next year, despite other companies starting to ship their mining hardware.
• I furthermore assume that proceeds from hardware sales will stay roughly the same. I believe this is possible if asicminer reduces prices while increasing the supply, reaching more customers in the process (as they started to do with the latest announcement)
• 24% dividend yield might actually not be unreasonably high, given the risks involved when investing in this company.
  
  • Assuming one bought BTC for fiat in the first place and still keeps the option of exchanging btc back to fiat in mind, we face (severe) exchange rate risks of our Fiat Currency vs. BTC.
  • Investors face relatively high counter party risk, as asicminer does not provide much information about anything. Also, if one is holding pass-through shares, he faces additional counterparts-risk for the intermediary
  • Investors face regulatory risk at multiple points: btc mining company, btc stock exchange, btc currency exchange etc.
  • Investors also face classical operational risks such as datacenter / mining-site destruction, electricity shortages, hardware failures etc.
  • Investors further face classical market risk, that is the risks of volatile share prices on the exchanges
    
    

Everyone interested in investing in ASICMINER (pass-throughs, direct shares,.. whatever) should keep this in mind and must assess the risks themselves. Eventually, every investor has to decide whether he thinks the dividend yield and potential profits from selling the shares at a higher price are worth the high risks.

In this sense, one should think of the dividend yield as a risk premium for holding the shares. If you think the risk premium is high enough - invest now. If you do not think so, don't (but I dare you to complain if share prices go up even further ).