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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 234. (Read 808915 times)

sr. member
Activity: 335
Merit: 250
June 25, 2013, 05:03:13 AM
for the trolls that keep bringing up how BFL is going to slaughter AM next week with all these orders, I present a BFL order chart:
http://bfl.allalla.com/

boy, just look at that competition go...  yawn.

Nobody has even made such a claim here so you're arguing with yourself.

Now that you bring it up though, has AM received any of the chips from the new batch yet? If not, then the initial batch was only for 50 Th/s according to AM but I've also heard they had 66 Th/s as well. So, unless that new batch has started to arrive, AM can't increase their hash rate above either 50 TH/s or 66 Th/s. I believe they've had their hash rate as high as 46 Th/s so far. At least 3.5 TH/s have been used for USBs and at least 0.15 Th/s of Blades have been sold. With BFL shipping Minirigs and AM not having the ability to bring any further hashing power online, BFL would certainly be bringing more hashing power online.

Also, like I pointed out, a single person could quite easily assemble 10 Minirigs a day, which is 150 TH/s a month. AM's incoming batch of chips is 100 Th/s. So, even if AM do get their new batch in time, and bring all 100 Th/s online by the end of the month, BFL could have overtaken them in shipping. AM would then be waiting on the second half of the batch for their final 100 Th/s, yet BFL would be able to ship the remaining 70 Th/s of Minirig orders.

So please explain, how AM are going to bring tens of Th/s online per day when they don't even have the chips in hand to do so at the moment.

Or the facility to keep it running, even at it's current relatively meager speed.  This is what blows my noodle out.  The deployment of that much TH/s is no way going to be less complex than what seems lately (and earlier) to be unstable.  There still hasn't been a solid time of 50gh/s being run, much less 66 or 150 or 300.  The network will reach those speeds.

Then we account for the avalon chips (soon to be delivered? probably) there is 500k - 1 million of them and multiple groups building against them.  so another 150-300 TH/s there.(ish)

Now BFL . . . yes everybody is mad, yes they delivered later than expect. . .but cut through the hate, and look at what they've actually done lately.  They chewed through 3500 chips in a matter of days.  And are receiving 1000s of boards to assemble this week.  70,000 more chips in the pipe. Another 200-300 Th/s. MR alone is big. and they are bulk selling raw chips as well.  Expecting to catch up their orders mid september.  You can't just dismiss that if your being analytical. Don't trust the bfl "list" it's complete bs, most people aren't on it

kncminer.  Well have to see what happens with them, but if they land within 3 months of their estimation, and hold that they have 1000 orders. another 200-300 Th/s.

so friedcat needs to higher a village of engineers real quick.  and figure out the stability issues.

on top of which, I see no substantiation or transparency of fact within AM.  I'm amazed how "faith" based this whole adventure is Smiley

Maybe I'm just not capable of that kind of belief . . .
  
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 501
June 25, 2013, 05:01:54 AM
If you order from BFL now you risk that they will have their asses sued of them by everyone who ordered a Minirig. Which never shipped and the replacement product has 1/3 the hash power and is 3 times as expensive. I wouldn't pre-order from a company with such an uncertain future no matter how good their product is.

On what basis could they be sued? Those unhappy can obtain a full refund at any time. If they decide not to get a refund, they'll get 3 x 500 Gh/s Minirigs instead of 1 x 1.5 Th/s Minirig.

If you ordered a sports car with a max. speed of 300 Mph would you be satisfied if you would get 3 cars that can do 100 Mph instead? I wouldn't. The minirig buyers ordered a 1.5 Th/s device, not 3 500 Gh/s devices (with 3 times the power usage).
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 25, 2013, 04:32:59 AM
If you order from BFL now you risk that they will have their asses sued of them by everyone who ordered a Minirig. Which never shipped and the replacement product has 1/3 the hash power and is 3 times as expensive. I wouldn't pre-order from a company with such an uncertain future no matter how good their product is.

On what basis could they be sued? Those unhappy can obtain a full refund at any time. If they decide not to get a refund, they'll get 3 x 500 Gh/s Minirigs instead of 1 x 1.5 Th/s Minirig.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
Bitgoblin
June 25, 2013, 04:23:37 AM
If you order from BFL now you risk that they will have their asses sued of them by everyone who ordered a Minirig. Which never shipped and the replacement product has 1/3 the hash power and is 3 times as expensive. I wouldn't pre-order from a company with such an uncertain future no matter how good their product is.
(emphasis added)

how good is "nothing"?

From another post:
"...It truly amazes me that Co's lie ASICMINER or SDICE, who roll around in thousands of BTC (hundreds of thousands of EUR) can not find a bookkeeper, who is capable compiling a proper P/L, C/F and the the balance sheet. All I can say is: "WTF!"

For f*** sake people, AM guys managed to design and manufacture the first ASIC chip and distribute it all around the world but can not find a little chink lady to do the numbers for them? Seriously?"
This bothers me a bit, but as long as the yield is so high, it is part of the equation.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
June 25, 2013, 04:21:35 AM
...

Are you for real?

Hold on, let me check...

I am fairly certain EB is merely an apparition that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Real......in the sense we can interact with him.

I read that as an application man that's one heck of a doc file Smiley
I am fairly certain EB is merely an application that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Maybe he is an application. An apparition application.

That would be one heck of a hardcore spirit

Regarding the financial statement
It's a good question  put it in for submission and then vote for it when the investors survey comes out should be compiling questions still
To mabsark add in how will they do it to the investor question list  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1004
June 25, 2013, 03:53:11 AM
for the trolls that keep bringing up how BFL is going to slaughter AM next week with all these orders, I present a BFL order chart:
http://bfl.allalla.com/

boy, just look at that competition go...  yawn.

Nobody has even made such a claim here so you're arguing with yourself.

Now that you bring it up though, has AM received any of the chips from the new batch yet? If not, then the initial batch was only for 50 Th/s according to AM but I've also heard they had 66 Th/s as well. So, unless that new batch has started to arrive, AM can't increase their hash rate above either 50 TH/s or 66 Th/s. I believe they've had their hash rate as high as 46 Th/s so far. At least 3.5 TH/s have been used for USBs and at least 0.15 Th/s of Blades have been sold. With BFL shipping Minirigs and AM not having the ability to bring any further hashing power online, BFL would certainly be bringing more hashing power online.

Also, like I pointed out, a single person could quite easily assemble 10 Minirigs a day, which is 150 TH/s a month. AM's incoming batch of chips is 100 Th/s. So, even if AM do get their new batch in time, and bring all 100 Th/s online by the end of the month, BFL could have overtaken them in shipping. AM would then be waiting on the second half of the batch for their final 100 Th/s, yet BFL would be able to ship the remaining 70 Th/s of Minirig orders.

So please explain, how AM are going to bring tens of Th/s online per day when they don't even have the chips in hand to do so at the moment.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
Bitgoblin
June 25, 2013, 03:43:58 AM
The recent push in price is because people are realizing that there is nowhere left in the land of Bitcoin to park your coins right now except in ASICMINER. Everything else on the market is just mental masturbation or else is charging a management fee to buy ASICMINER shares on your behalf. I don't see that changing over the near to medium term. GPU miners are packing it in and buying shares as these dividends are as close as the common man will get to mining from here on out.  PMBs are a joke - if you're not making the chips, you won't get them until they're irrelevant.
+1

(though I disagree with the rest of that post)

Now there are obviously several problems with this explanation:

@chkgk is right: 25% yield is definitely too low for such a risky business: for such a (relatively) small yield I would expect much more transparency.

I'm still quite optimistic and I'm not going to sell my shares, but I'm not buying much more either.
sr. member
Activity: 259
Merit: 250
June 25, 2013, 03:31:51 AM
...

Are you for real?

Hold on, let me check...

I am fairly certain EB is merely an apparition that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Real......in the sense we can interact with him.

I read that as an application man that's one heck of a doc file Smiley
I am fairly certain EB is merely an application that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Maybe he is an application. An apparition application.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
June 25, 2013, 03:29:27 AM
...

Are you for real?

Hold on, let me check...

I am fairly certain EB is merely an apparition that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Real......in the sense we can interact with him.

I read that as an application man that's one heck of a doc file Smiley
I am fairly certain EB is merely an application that is trapped within bitcointalk.
sr. member
Activity: 259
Merit: 250
June 25, 2013, 03:26:45 AM
...

Are you for real?

Hold on, let me check...

I am fairly certain EB is merely an apparition that is trapped within bitcointalk.

Real......in the sense we can interact with him.
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
June 25, 2013, 02:56:26 AM
...

Are you for real?

Hold on, let me check...
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
June 25, 2013, 02:49:22 AM
From another post:
"...It truly amazes me that Co's lie ASICMINER or SDICE, who roll around in thousands of BTC (hundreds of thousands of EUR) can not find a bookkeeper, who is capable compiling a proper P/L, C/F and the the balance sheet. All I can say is: "WTF!"

For f*** sake people, AM guys managed to design and manufacture the first ASIC chip and distribute it all around the world but can not find a little chink lady to do the numbers for them? Seriously?"


Are you for real?
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank
June 25, 2013, 02:40:31 AM
From another post:
"...It truly amazes me that Co's lie ASICMINER or SDICE, who roll around in thousands of BTC (hundreds of thousands of EUR) can not find a bookkeeper, who is capable compiling a proper P/L, C/F and the the balance sheet. All I can say is: "WTF!"

For f*** sake people, AM guys managed to design and manufacture the first ASIC chip and distribute it all around the world but can not find a little chink lady to do the numbers for them? Seriously?"
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
June 25, 2013, 01:11:00 AM
Question marks got a double red ??
Siteadvisor and Web of Trust
http://www.mywot.com/en/scorecard/bfl.allalla.com?utm_source=addon&utm_content=rw-viewsc
Just a bunch of graphs though so what am I missing??
Got another source vela don't want to say check when its doing double red duty on the url lol
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
June 25, 2013, 12:40:12 AM
for the trolls that keep bringing up how BFL is going to slaughter AM next week with all these orders, I present a BFL order chart:
http://bfl.allalla.com/

boy, just look at that competition go...  yawn.

+1

I like how you're going AM spokesman this week, but interested to see how you react if AM div is < 0.02 this week (which seems likely). Will you be all like "revenue dropped, this is overpriced"? Is 0.017 acceptable to you for this week as long as it recovers next week?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
June 24, 2013, 11:52:23 PM
for the trolls that keep bringing up how BFL is going to slaughter AM next week with all these orders, I present a BFL order chart:
http://bfl.allalla.com/

boy, just look at that competition go...  yawn.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
June 24, 2013, 10:25:42 PM
Anyone want to speculate on what's going on with AM's hash rate?  It's gone limp again and won't stay up.  Time for some Viagra!

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/



I'm thinking bad luck... they went over 4 hrs without finding a block.

i.o.w. shit happens.
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin: The People's Bailout
June 24, 2013, 10:23:58 PM
Anyone want to speculate on what's going on with AM's hash rate?  It's gone limp again and won't stay up.  Time for some Viagra!

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
You can't kill math.
June 24, 2013, 08:42:10 PM
They probably shipped over 500 orders since lots of orders are not on that list at all, but it's still going to take a LONG time to get through the 18 thousand orders in the queue.

I get the impression they will never get through the queue, but instead will keep chaining new products and pre-orders.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
June 24, 2013, 07:39:24 PM
They probably shipped over 500 orders since lots of orders are not on that list at all, but it's still going to take a LONG time to get through the 18 thousand orders in the queue.
Well it lists the people who add to the list
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.780
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