ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 240.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 10:27:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit.

The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Lohoris on June 24, 2013, 11:07:25 AM

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

they told me that 8 months ago... Angry

bitfair

sr. member

Activity: 362

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

That's like comparing a computer from Apple to shares in Apple. One is a share in a company, the other is a product from a company.

The hardware has no capability to grow or to strategically adapt, but the company has - and in my opinion you are underestimating that ability.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:55:21 AM

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that.

yes, but it will keep their dividends stable, which will increase the share price from where it is right now.

Quote

AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

citation required

Quote

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

this has yet to be true, and BFL has been selling for a year, and AM shares have been selling for 8 months.

Quote

You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

everyone that bought AM shares under 3.4 are not waiting to recoup their cost. 99% of BFL customers are, though.

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: Mabsark on June 22, 2013, 11:31:31 AM

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

Quote

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:55:21 AM

Quote from: twentyseventy on June 24, 2013, 10:13:13 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

So, who's in the better position? You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

Obviously you're happier

... in your fantasy land.

You could invest your AM divs in a spanking new miner too, or back into AM. Recouping != ROI.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

It's always the same discussion over and over. Do you guys realize that nobody is right or wrong? Luckily there are different assets, hardware, etc, to make everybody happy with their specific risk to take, amount to invest, and time window to look at.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: twentyseventy on June 24, 2013, 10:13:13 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share.

And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share.

So, who's in the better position? You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit?

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

I think you are the one that needs to learn math.

Profit from placing an order a year ago with BFL: BTC0
Profit from purchasing AM share at IPO: 3.4+.32 = BTC3.72 (ignores huge increase in BTC value)

0 < 3.72

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

that's hilarious! Grin

You have no proof of that, only hope. They are currently shipping orders made a year ago, while AM is shipping units in a few days. august at the latest? ha!

When comparing something to nothing, nothing is certainly cheaper.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: binaryFate on June 24, 2013, 10:03:17 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:58:58 AM

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow! bitfunder last price was 3.07!

How can the difference be so large w.r.t btct?

different exchanges, people waiting to move coins to arbitrage.

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math.

maxmint

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit it from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

There's an important difference between mining shares and actual mining hardware: you (most likely) will be able to sell your ASICMINER share one year from now but you won't be able to sell your BFL miner at that time (because of increasing difficulty). One year from now, a 5 GH/s BFL miner will just be scrap metal while an ASICMINER share will still be worth something.

So I think it does not make sense to compare these two.

twentyseventy

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 10:03:38 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

Your calculations don't take into account that AM will be implementing increasing hashpower and, hopefully, be mining and generating TX fees for quite a long time. This will likely make the shares still worth something after the ~2 years that it takes to ROI. However, your BFL Jala will be worth nothing after two years.

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:48:31 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 09:17:08 AM

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that. I typically see a rise right before dividend...

Not sure which stock you're watching but Burnside's AM on BTCT does just this, maybe not week I didn't watch it. First week at 2.5 it was like 2.5->2.8(12h before div)->2.6(1h before div)->2.45(after div)->2.5. Next 3 weeks were less dramatic, like rise to 2.6 back to 2.48 then 2.5, but still a 0.1 profit per share on that.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:31:53 AM

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order.

Let's compare then smart arse.

AM
3.3 BTC per share
400,000 shares
0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic)
110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs

5 Gh/s BFL
274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC
0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs
0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs

So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:58:58 AM

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow! bitfunder last price was 3.07!

How can the difference be so large w.r.t btct?

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

today's drop might have something to do with the drop in BTC/USD, as well.

wow! bitfunder last price was 3.07!

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 09:17:08 AM

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that. I typically see a rise right before dividend...

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on June 24, 2013, 09:26:05 AM

The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.

I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right?

Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Roll Eyes

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 240. (Read 808853 times)