When does a ROI of more than a year ever make sense?
Especially on something as risky as a product that can swing a price range of 40% in 1 day?
This unit needs to be sub $2000
Topic: Avalon 8 official specs released - page 18. (Read 30297 times)
They're not stupid. I'm pretty sure they added the pallet prices knowing we would all start talking about and they could then gauge the market's response.
Most of you have just shot us all in our collective d***s by saying $3000 is totally worth it.
Most of you have just shot us all in our collective d***s by saying $3000 is totally worth it.
Bitmain have just shown how that price point is acceptable to consumers by selling out so quickly.
I am pretty sure this was exactly the impression they wanted to give by selling out fast for whatever reason
I don't know, I haven't been in the mining game as long as some of you, but they didn't seem to sell out fast to me.
A few months ago, when they released a new batch of any miner, their website ground to a halt, and you could sit there refreshing for 1-2 hours, not actually add anything to your cart, and it would be sold out by the time the website was actually responding. The past few batches sit around for hours and hours (and sometimes days/weeks).
And while that price point might be acceptable, the 821 isn't the S9. The S9 has it beat on Watt/TH (by a little) and Price/TH (by a LOT) if they price it the same as the S9... for a machine with 20% less output. Honestly, if the 821 is over $2200, I would be shocked.
Pallet price of 60 units A821 = $150,525 divided by 60 = $2,508.75 a unit (without PSU).
Add PSU for around $200 ($2,708.75) and re-seller mark up if buying less than 60 units and were around the $3k mark.
Wow, at $3-4K per miner, that's going to take over a year ROI, especially with the difficulty going up each month. And if BTC keeps falling, it's going to take even longer! People been snatching up miners on ebay for over $4K because BTC was skyrocketing to $20K! Well, it's dropped a lot since it hit the high. Just last month the S9 was under $1500 & the A741 was under $1K and BTC was over $8K; so people buying new miners then could still make over 200% ROI in a year even after deducting power costs. Now that's all changed with the miners doubling and tripling in price and BTC falling. So people are going to reassess whether it's still profitable to buy a miner or not. Though you'll still get that 1 in 10 who'll buy at the high end and at any price! 
That's why the companies selling the picks and shovels for digital gold are making out like bandits; just as the people who sold them to the miners back then in the 1850s gold rush.
That's why the companies selling the picks and shovels for digital gold are making out like bandits; just as the people who sold them to the miners back then in the 1850s gold rush.
Most people don't have cheap power at .05/kwh. So it's going to come down to $/TH for most people looking into getting miners now who don't already have a bunch of them. 
Anything's possible, I guess, but an ROI of 9mo-1yr isn't competitive or palatable to a lot of people.
They need to get used to it, we're not going to see new miner generations pretty much every year OR OFTEN LESS any more, as SHA256 miners have caught up to semiconductor state-of-the-art as of the current models.
Do note that the S9 has already been out for a year and change, which ALREADY makes it Bitmain's longest-lasting "current model" - and it's looking likely to be that for another year or even 2.
Then the NEXT generation is likely to last more like 4-5 years, since the S9 was designed almost 2 years after the 14/16nm node started seeing production.
For that matter, if you were an early adopter on the S5 or SP20, you had something like a year and a half, perhaps 2 years with LOW electric power rates, to be able to achieve ROI - and the S7 is still profitable NOW and has been consistantly profitable it's entire existance so far if you had low power rates.
Better yet - Innosilicon A2 is *3* years old, and they're been consistently profitable at anything under 5 cent power (and possibly 6) for their entire existence - but to be fair they've had a lot less competition 'till this year than has been the norm in SHA256.
Anything's possible, I guess, but an ROI of 9mo-1yr isn't competitive or palatable to a lot of people.
It only has to be palatable to 1 in 10 my friend (if you believe their press release)! Think like a company and not a miner and it becomes easier to understand.
Besides a 1 year +ROI has been the norm MANY times before this and IS competitive and WILL be palatable to at least 1 in 10 people with current coin prices!
I understand that, but they also have to be competitive with other mining companies. If they're not, it won't even be palatable to 1 in 10. No other mining company has a 1 year ROI right now, and right now is what matters.
If the pallet pricing is to be believed, 60@ $162,525.00 = 2708.75 per miner (with PSU) to distributors. The margins have been fairly slim, so I'm still guessing the 821 will be under 3k. We shall soon see.
Edit: That's the price WITH the PSUs.
Pallet pricing for the 821 is on their website now. But everything is sold out.....already or just preparing?
I would assume it's preping. Everything official to date has been "no pricing yet, don't ask, when we have it we will release to everyone"
what I want to know is will the new Avalon play nicely with P2P pools meaning have you made any adjustments to mine better with P2p
Pallet pricing for the 821 is on their website now. But everything is sold out.....already or just preparing?
I expect the 821 to end up being ballpark $3000, possibly as LOW as $2500, based on current S9 pricing.
Caanan/Avalon has always had a price premium compared to whatever Bitmain product they're closest too, unless they were a TON lower on hashrate, and I don't see them pricing the 821 much if ANY lower than S9 since they're fairly close on hashrate and efficiency.
They might MATCH the price of the S9 due to the hashrate difference, but they won't go lower - Bitmain will tolerate "same price" most likely because they can point at the higher hashrate AND slightly better efficiency, but a lower price would probably prompt a price war.
I mean they told us how they were formulating the price in the press release. When I plug "my opinion of the numbers" into their "formula" (which by the way their formula makes perfect business sense) I come up with a ballpark of $3500 USD at the retail/disty level. I see maybe 3k/3.25k for bulk 60 unit pallets.
If coin price doesn't shrink to much farther, from what I am reading in their release that number makes sense. And honestly it will sell out FAST even at $3500, just look at the comments in some of the threads and how the newbs will pay "anything for them". If we believe they have a 10x supply/demand problem, coin price stabilizes high, they consider spot pricing of gear then $3500 would be my starting point!
We're talking about millions of dollars in sales if these companies are not employing professional sales people they are making a huge mistake. If they are the price is well thought out and internal numbers are analyzed and extrapolated to project a multitude of scenarios. This information will give them the best possible chance to maximize profits. When a professional sales exec has a 10x supply/demand ratio skew he is having a wet dream, trust me! He/She will make the most of it if he/she is any fucking good!
If coin price stays high expect 3k to be the best possible scenario. If coin prices go up whoa watch out, 4k will sound cheap. IMO
I think your assessment is spot on. I, too, expect to see prices between $3k and $4k per unit.
Anything's possible, I guess, but an ROI of 9mo-1yr isn't competitive or palatable to a lot of people.
It only has to be palatable to 1 in 10 my friend (if you believe their press release)! Think like a company and not a miner and it becomes easier to understand.
Besides a 1 year +ROI has been the norm MANY times before this and IS competitive and WILL be palatable to at least 1 in 10 people with current coin prices!
someone start a pool. $1875 is my guess.
Corrected:
someone start
someone start a pool. $1875 is my guess.
I expect the 821 to end up being ballpark $3000, possibly as LOW as $2500, based on current S9 pricing.
Caanan/Avalon has always had a price premium compared to whatever Bitmain product they're closest too, unless they were a TON lower on hashrate, and I don't see them pricing the 821 much if ANY lower than S9 since they're fairly close on hashrate and efficiency.
They might MATCH the price of the S9 due to the hashrate difference, but they won't go lower - Bitmain will tolerate "same price" most likely because they can point at the higher hashrate AND slightly better efficiency, but a lower price would probably prompt a price war.
I mean they told us how they were formulating the price in the press release. When I plug "my opinion of the numbers" into their "formula" (which by the way their formula makes perfect business sense) I come up with a ballpark of $3500 USD at the retail/disty level. I see maybe 3k/3.25k for bulk 60 unit pallets.
If coin price doesn't shrink to much farther, from what I am reading in their release that number makes sense. And honestly it will sell out FAST even at $3500, just look at the comments in some of the threads and how the newbs will pay "anything for them". If we believe they have a 10x supply/demand problem, coin price stabilizes high, they consider spot pricing of gear then $3500 would be my starting point!
We're talking about millions of dollars in sales if these companies are not employing professional sales people they are making a huge mistake. If they are the price is well thought out and internal numbers are analyzed and extrapolated to project a multitude of scenarios. This information will give them the best possible chance to maximize profits. When a professional sales exec has a 10x supply/demand ratio skew he is having a wet dream, trust me! He/She will make the most of it if he/she is any fucking good!
If coin price stays high expect 3k to be the best possible scenario. If coin prices go up whoa watch out, 4k will sound cheap. IMO
I think your assessment is spot on. I, too, expect to see prices between $3k and $4k per unit.
Anything's possible, I guess, but an ROI of 9mo-1yr isn't competitive or palatable to a lot of people.
do you think that the recent drop in bitcoin prices will lead to Bitmain / Avalon to reassess their pricing strategy ?
Their strategy will be the same. Strategy is price it to maximize profit. So far this crypto price drop seems just as a small correction so it doesn't matter, but if crypto really crashes and/or competition increases, price will go down as supply/demand changes.
do you think that the recent drop in bitcoin prices will lead to Bitmain / Avalon to reassess their pricing strategy ?
I expect the 821 to end up being ballpark $3000, possibly as LOW as $2500, based on current S9 pricing.
Caanan/Avalon has always had a price premium compared to whatever Bitmain product they're closest too, unless they were a TON lower on hashrate, and I don't see them pricing the 821 much if ANY lower than S9 since they're fairly close on hashrate and efficiency.
They might MATCH the price of the S9 due to the hashrate difference, but they won't go lower - Bitmain will tolerate "same price" most likely because they can point at the higher hashrate AND slightly better efficiency, but a lower price would probably prompt a price war.
I mean they told us how they were formulating the price in the press release. When I plug "my opinion of the numbers" into their "formula" (which by the way their formula makes perfect business sense) I come up with a ballpark of $3500 USD at the retail/disty level. I see maybe 3k/3.25k for bulk 60 unit pallets.
If coin price doesn't shrink to much farther, from what I am reading in their release that number makes sense. And honestly it will sell out FAST even at $3500, just look at the comments in some of the threads and how the newbs will pay "anything for them". If we believe they have a 10x supply/demand problem, coin price stabilizes high, they consider spot pricing of gear then $3500 would be my starting point!
We're talking about millions of dollars in sales if these companies are not employing professional sales people they are making a huge mistake. If they are the price is well thought out and internal numbers are analyzed and extrapolated to project a multitude of scenarios. This information will give them the best possible chance to maximize profits. When a professional sales exec has a 10x supply/demand ratio skew he is having a wet dream, trust me! He/She will make the most of it if he/she is any fucking good!
If coin price stays high expect 3k to be the best possible scenario. If coin prices go up whoa watch out, 4k will sound cheap. IMO
I think your assessment is spot on. I, too, expect to see prices between $3k and $4k per unit.
I'm surprised that this miner can operates at subzero temperature. Btw, what is the official price?
subzero C is trivial - I can't think of any electronic device that CAN'T operate well below 0 C
subzero F is trivial as well unless some sort of "optical read device" is involved, where condensation can cause issues for the read device.
Military electronics is COMMONLY specified to at least -40C and usually -55 C - but the PARTS themselves don't tend to be any different inside other than the "recordkeeping makes it easy to trace the lot if you have a bad part" type stuff.
Will the Controller for Avalon Miner 741 work with the 821 and Will you be able to hook up an A8 to an existing A7?
maybe Steve said the auc dongle will be the same so maybe the controller can share.
as for 120 or 240
simple if you want to mine get at least one 240 circuit.
I'm surprised that this miner can operates at subzero temperature. Btw, what is the official price?
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