Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 40.

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: btcsql on May 31, 2013, 02:30:40 PM

Quote from: creativex on May 31, 2013, 01:52:20 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SolarSilver on May 31, 2013, 11:08:58 AM

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases. I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining.

In the same boat as you friend, it is really something...

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

btcsql

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Quote from: creativex on May 31, 2013, 01:52:20 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SolarSilver on May 31, 2013, 11:08:58 AM

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases. I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining.

In the same boat as you friend, it is really something...

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SolarSilver on May 31, 2013, 11:08:58 AM

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases. I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining.

btcsql

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Still nothing with regards to my batch 2.

GenTarkin

legendary

Activity: 2450

Merit: 1002

Quote from: SolarSilver on May 31, 2013, 11:08:58 AM

Quote from: RoadStress on May 31, 2013, 09:35:57 AM

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1615368

Quote

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

All depends on how you count your pennies man! Sure, I paid 55btc for avy batch 2... Ill probably make that back, but in USD equivalent Ill for sure make it back if I cash that out at appropriate time =P

GenTarkin

legendary

Activity: 2450

Merit: 1002

nice, although the increase in diff in coming months will more be like a curve rather than linear... but if I had to guess, at some point it will taper off to a less increase so , one could say they will eventually average each other out. Meaning less profit toward the beginning .. and smoother over time.

SolarSilver

legendary

Activity: 1112

Merit: 1000

Quote from: RoadStress on May 31, 2013, 09:35:57 AM

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1615368

Quote

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

onealfa

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

Quote from: GenTarkin on May 31, 2013, 09:43:04 AM

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

That calculator rules...

Wow, thanks for the great link, GenTarkin!
I agree, i made some wrong assumptions before.
If we expect difficulty to grow as in last 4 month, then it makes 85x times increase per year, or +8.92% per week, or +1.228% per day.
Avalon was really $1500, not 75 BTC, and hardly one pays for power more then myself - $0.19/kWh
If AVALON arrives in 2 month, AUG-1, then we may have 25 mln dif. With these corrections we have
http://i.imgur.com/KIsyGdj.png
And these 2 calculators show a surprisingly good match.
Enjoy !

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: GenTarkin on May 31, 2013, 09:43:04 AM

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

That calculator rules...
based on a 1.5month delivery time till most batch 2 are delivered, current price, & diff increase of 1.3%/day over next 12 months
ROI is 5 days
Profit is nearly 12k USD

shoulda sold my unit when people offered 30k for it =P
heres to hoping price of btc goes up =)

Based on 2.5month delivery for batch 3, cost of hardware 7200$, hashrate 90gh - ROI 17 days, profit is 6300$ in 12months

Those USB miners people are gobbling up... ROI is never =P, they would be out 130$ given market conditions remain same.

Very interesting projections.
I think the avy batch 2 has the most projected profit behind 1.5TH BFL product - if its even 1.5TH anymore, somewhere I read they downgraded it to 500GH for future orders...

my current 3300mh/s GPU setup which already reached roi long ago, still has bout 1100$ of profit projected for 12 months, by comparison.

Nice analysis GT. Yeah those USB miners are cute, but the pricetag is whack. Great deal for ASICMiner shareholders and those that want stocking stuffers(in June?), but no so great if you want to mine for profit.

Come on Avalon...get those rigs outtha door mang!

GenTarkin

legendary

Activity: 2450

Merit: 1002

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

That calculator rules...
based on a 1.5month delivery time till most batch 2 are delivered, current price, & diff increase of 1.3%/day over next 12 months
ROI is 5 days
Profit is nearly 12k USD

shoulda sold my unit when people offered 30k for it =P
heres to hoping price of btc goes up =)

Based on 2.5month delivery for batch 3, cost of hardware 7200$, hashrate 90gh - ROI 17 days, profit is 6300$ in 12months

Those USB miners people are gobbling up... ROI is never =P, they would be out 130$ given market conditions remain same.

Very interesting projections.
I think the avy batch 2 has the most projected profit behind 1.5TH BFL product - if its even 1.5TH anymore, somewhere I read they downgraded it to 500GH for future orders...

my current 3300mh/s GPU setup which already reached roi long ago, still has bout 1100$ of profit projected for 12 months, by comparison.

RoadStress

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 08:46:17 AM

Quote from: RoadStress on May 31, 2013, 08:35:41 AM

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 06:54:02 AM

Quote from: phoenikx on May 31, 2013, 06:31:24 AM

Exactly my thought. This is a man that makes other people rich. Appreciate that and let us give him the time to make it happen.

Actually, batch 2 and 3 roi will be negative. I fail to see how they make other people rich. Themselves, maybe, with our money.

It's impossible for batch 2 to have a negative roi!

Batch 2 was paid 75 btc. Care to share your genius?

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

I don't know what was btc price in February, but if it was 28$ as BitAddict said then that would mean 53 bitcoins, not 75. Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

There genius shared

Edit: How do you know how people paid for Batch 2? Maybe some paid converting fiat to btc and some paid directly with btc. The people that converted fiat to btc will have a positive roi extremely fast and the ones that paid directly in btc means that they either mined their coins or got them at a lower value so again they will have a positive roi very fast.

BitAddict

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Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: onealfa on May 31, 2013, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 08:46:17 AM

Batch 2 was paid 75 btc. Care to share your genius?

Grab your calculator, and put it in your trash !

Let's see one of the worst scenarios:
75 BTC on FEBR-18 was x $27 = i.e. $2025
Lets say we will not see our batch #2 ASIC's for another 2 month, and by 1 AUG difficulty will rose more then double, to the whopping 30 mln
Then, say your electricity is the most expensive of all of us, $0.25 /kwh
Finally, lets assume the terribly bad Profitability decline per year - 0.2 (would you believe this???)
Want see what we got?

after 6 month of mining >>> http://i.imgur.com/eZSjr1i.png
& Still FAR FAR from negative ROI 's
Unless the http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ calculator is a junk as well.
But I love it !

I think batch 2 and 3 will have positive ROI, not really big but they will have. But why are you counting in USD?? You need to count your invesment in BTC, because maybe you just earn more holding bitcoins rather than buying machine.

Quote from: Rampion on May 31, 2013, 09:17:56 AM

0.2 yearly profitability decline is unrealistically optimistic. That's only x5 difficulty increase in one year. Make it 0.01 (x100).

I think that x100 is too much. You're being too much pessimist.

Rampion

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Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

0.2 yearly profitability decline is unrealistically optimistic. That's only x5 difficulty increase in one year. Make it 0.01 (x100).

onealfa

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 08:46:17 AM

Batch 2 was paid 75 btc. Care to share your genius?

Grab your calculator, and put it in your trash !

Let's see one of the worst scenarios:
75 BTC on FEBR-18 was x $27 = i.e. $2025
Lets say we will not see our batch #2 ASIC's for another 2 month, and by 1 AUG difficulty will rose more then double, to the whopping 30 mln
Then, say your electricity is the most expensive of all of us, $0.25 /kwh
Finally, lets assume the terribly bad Profitability decline per year - 0.2 (would you believe this???)
Want see what we got?

after 6 month of mining >>> http://i.imgur.com/eZSjr1i.png
& Still FAR FAR from negative ROI 's
Unless the http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ calculator is a junk as well.
But I love it !

cedivad

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1001

Quote from: RoadStress on May 31, 2013, 08:35:41 AM

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 06:54:02 AM

Quote from: phoenikx on May 31, 2013, 06:31:24 AM

Exactly my thought. This is a man that makes other people rich. Appreciate that and let us give him the time to make it happen.

Actually, batch 2 and 3 roi will be negative. I fail to see how they make other people rich. Themselves, maybe, with our money.

It's impossible for batch 2 to have a negative roi!

Batch 2 was paid 75 btc. Care to share your genius?

Bowjob

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Lol, 10 days indeed! Well, we can't do much. ETA is June 30 for batch 2, August 30 for the middle of batch 3. Then, KnC miner unleashes Jupiter at 350 GH/s in Sept. >_>

RoadStress

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Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

Quote from: cedivad on May 31, 2013, 06:54:02 AM

Quote from: phoenikx on May 31, 2013, 06:31:24 AM

Exactly my thought. This is a man that makes other people rich. Appreciate that and let us give him the time to make it happen.

Actually, batch 2 and 3 roi will be negative. I fail to see how they make other people rich. Themselves, maybe, with our money.

It's impossible for batch 2 to have a negative roi!

bennybong

hero member

Activity: 682

Merit: 500

Quote from: rudrigorc2 on May 31, 2013, 07:16:29 AM

Did you buy from them, yes or no?

Yes

rudrigorc2

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: Rampion on May 31, 2013, 07:22:24 AM

Quote from: Bowjob on April 05, 2013, 12:21:22 AM

Aye! Ten more days till shipping time. Let's add more pillars to the BTC network... and get rewarded in doing so. I leave you with this pic, gentlemen.

"ten more days"...

Sorry guys, but quoted for the lulz

And I'm a customer too, so I'm making fun of myself Wink

And that picture saves the thread. Grin

Rampion

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Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Bowjob on April 05, 2013, 12:21:22 AM

Aye! Ten more days till shipping time. Let's add more pillars to the BTC network... and get rewarded in doing so. I leave you with this pic, gentlemen.

"ten more days"...

Sorry guys, but quoted for the lulz

And I'm a customer too, so I'm making fun of myself Wink

Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 40. (Read 141540 times)