[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 53.

Carlton Banks

legendary

Activity: 3430

Merit: 3080

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 09:04:43 PM

There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal.

I would consider myself ~50% convinced (i.e. not convinced at all) that the impeachment was at least partially staged (i.e. alot of those playing a role in the impeachment aren't in on the joke) and that it is just another vector by which to maximize the polarization of the US voting class. But such things are so hypothetical, going on to say "because reelection is pre-planned" is too much of a stretch. Sure, you could argue it would be convenient to have Trump in charge during any kind of market panic, but if there's any orchestration going on at all with the Trump phenomenon (highly likely, but we in the public have no certainty of), guessing multiple moves in advance isn't very productive speculation

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: TwitchySeal on December 10, 2019, 04:45:18 AM

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

I dunno, anything could happen. I remember in 2016 I thought the 1.4x payout on Hillary Clinton was easy money all day long (this was on DirectBet, so maybe it was a slightly higher payout on other sites). Pretty happy I never actually put a bet in on that one.

I remember their 2 selections were Hillary Clinton and "Republican Candidate." They never bothered putting in "Donald Trump," because I guess he was too much of a wildcard.

In any case, the moral of the story is, anything can (and does) happen!

TwitchySeal

legendary

Activity: 2716

Merit: 2093

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on December 10, 2019, 01:13:39 AM

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

Although, in politics the books just set the prices based on where the money is going, so it's much less of an indicator than any professional sporting event where they analyze huge amounts of data. Also, most of the money is probably coming from non-US residents. I had to use a vpn just to access that site.

PrimeNumber7

copper member

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1901

Amazon Prime Member #7

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.

TECSHARE

legendary

Activity: 3318

Merit: 2008

First Exclusion Ever

I dunno, Biden and Vermin Supreme are about a toss up. Mandatory ponies for everyone is a popular platform compared to a chomo with dementia, no matter how much he knows about roaches.

squatz1

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1285

Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 10:47:13 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 10:39:06 PM

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

Sure, no problem.

It'd be worth the comedy value alone if you pick Hillary for a hedge Grin

The real hedge is to pick Biden

But yes, it would be worth the comedy value IMO to pick someone like Hillary, Bloomberg, etc.

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 10:39:06 PM

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

Sure, no problem.

It'd be worth the comedy value alone if you pick Hillary for a hedge Grin

squatz1

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1285

Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 10:36:30 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 09:35:36 PM

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

Do you mean you'd want to do a 1:1 with the same conditions like the OP? Boring

How about this: pick Trump and one other person who you think would be elected if Trump dies etc, can be a Republican or a Democrat, doesn't matter. Let's say you pick Trump+Pence, if either of them is elected President - you win, if not - I win, no other conditions, even-money bet (1:1). Then your risk (other than Trump losing) is only (1) something catastrophic/unconstitutional; or (2) if you picked the wrong 2nd person, e.g. Pence is impeached along with Trump LOL.

Actually I haven't checked what odds bookies are offering for Pence, I might be too generous here Grin

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 09:35:36 PM

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

Do you mean you'd want to do a 1:1 with the same conditions like the OP? Boring

How about this: pick Trump and one other person who you think would be elected if Trump dies etc, can be a Republican or a Democrat, doesn't matter. Let's say you pick Trump+Pence, if either of them is elected President - you win, if not - I win, no other conditions, even-money bet (1:1). Then your risk (other than Trump losing) is only (1) something catastrophic/unconstitutional; or (2) if you picked the wrong 2nd person, e.g. Pence is impeached along with Trump LOL.

Actually I haven't checked what odds bookies are offering for Pence, I might be too generous here Grin

squatz1

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1285

Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 09:04:43 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 08:40:28 PM

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

I would still love to have a straight YOLO Trump-all-the-way bet without any conditions. There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal. I would consider a bet against that but it would have to be decent-sized multisig-escrowed no-bullshit offer to make it worthwhile.

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

eddie13

legendary

Activity: 2296

Merit: 2262

BTC or BUST

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 09:15:58 PM

Let the year-long mutual taunting begin

Through the next halving at that..
Will this have been a $30,000 bet?

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: eddie13 on December 09, 2019, 09:07:57 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 08:24:08 PM

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

   If there is no presidential election in 2020.
   If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
   If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

   EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
   No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
   Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
   Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
   If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
IJ1eqLjiIGXk7byYYqPViHKqJ3eYfTP1ttyDbTqy2ji4UyWoM7cBb++FT7F0HAnt/C6wAwc4TAlMWVXKZO2w1nk=

Edit: Accepted and now considered official..

Verified. Thank you. Let the year-long mutual taunting begin

eddie13

legendary

Activity: 2296

Merit: 2262

BTC or BUST

Quote from: suchmoon on December 09, 2019, 08:24:08 PM

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

   If there is no presidential election in 2020.
   If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
   If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

   EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
   No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
   Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
   Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
   If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
IJ1eqLjiIGXk7byYYqPViHKqJ3eYfTP1ttyDbTqy2ji4UyWoM7cBb++FT7F0HAnt/C6wAwc4TAlMWVXKZO2w1nk=

Edit: Accepted and now considered official..

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: squatz1 on December 09, 2019, 08:40:28 PM

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

I would still love to have a straight YOLO Trump-all-the-way bet without any conditions. There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal. I would consider a bet against that but it would have to be decent-sized multisig-escrowed no-bullshit offer to make it worthwhile.

squatz1

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1285

Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

Can't wait to see how this turns out. I'm assuming this sort of betting is also present on ugh -- ETH decentralized sites -- probably not with the same amount of clauses though.

suchmoon

legendary

Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

This is a bet that originated here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53163158
Was accepted here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53279557
And refined here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53286386

I'll be using the following address to pay or to receive the winning bet: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

First a simple message to make sure eddie13 can use this address to verify the signature since we had some issues with my first attempt.

Message: suchmoon's address 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb 2019-12-09
Signature: IBLVkYyFu0b+At6GhZnIQrTSFIufijq5v8DIawA6TQITVHg6LgKrHLahOgTnNrBVZ7ZQDCUdohVmj6nn2bOhkH4=

Now the real bet contract:

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

If there is no presidential election in 2020.
If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

Signature: INAwQT1w7fOpXmXIgQqru2P1P07FpstW6XRKzaqG1jsdJ4/djFTgQrMgEgvuvuBX3OkjFpsXPFgZLqPu1dfdVvM=

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

Topic: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon - page 53. (Read 11730 times)