BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 4.

DieJohnny

legendary

Activity: 1639

Merit: 1006

Quote from: infofront on December 09, 2018, 06:43:50 PM

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

For me the BETI deviation is a broken indicator. I like yours much better at this stage in Bitcoin's life. Breaking $4500 was the point that new models need to be considered.

josegines

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 532

Quote from: Biodom on February 17, 2019, 06:28:55 PM

Quote from: josegines on February 17, 2019, 03:01:26 AM

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 17, 2019, 02:02:56 AM

and HODL til $80k -

why $80k?

right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.

Thanks!

but the curve is based on fixed parameters for several years? because in that case, would not it be logical to think that this curve might need a revision? How old are the parameters used to calculate the curve?

we may reach 80k, but it could happen with BETI = 2 in a new curve

Wilhelm

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1265

Quote from: Biodom on February 17, 2019, 06:28:55 PM

Quote from: josegines on February 17, 2019, 03:01:26 AM

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 17, 2019, 02:02:56 AM

and HODL til $80k -

why $80k?

right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.

I so hope you are right :-)

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Quote from: josegines on February 17, 2019, 03:01:26 AM

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 17, 2019, 02:02:56 AM

and HODL til $80k -

why $80k?

right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.

josegines

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 532

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 17, 2019, 02:02:56 AM

and HODL til $80k -

why $80k?

Dogboy714

jr. member

Activity: 51

Merit: 11

Quote from: exstasie on February 13, 2019, 02:56:12 AM

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 13, 2019, 01:44:05 AM

We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.

Don't get too comfortable with the current regression model, based on such limited data. We cant assume based on extrapolation that Bitcoin will never rise above the upper bounds of the historical trend. That would eliminate the possibility of an S-curve model for adoption, which I believe is still possible.

Mmmm...hopium! Not going to happen, though. Dollar cost average in now and HODL til $80k - then sell everything and retire! Don't forget the last part about selling everything - the hype will be stronger than you could possibly imagine but you've gotta go contrarian and sell. Rinse and repeat for more bitcoin if you like, but get out!

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: Dogboy714 on February 13, 2019, 01:44:05 AM

We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.

Don't get too comfortable with the current regression model, based on such limited data. We cant assume based on extrapolation that Bitcoin will never rise above the upper bounds of the historical trend. That would eliminate the possibility of an S-curve model for adoption, which I believe is still possible.

Dogboy714

jr. member

Activity: 51

Merit: 11

Quote from: Biodom on February 13, 2019, 12:12:30 AM

I am getting BETI at -2.083 currently using the formula described here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26854986

Since -2.25 is an all time low (in 2011) with second low in 2015 at -2.2, next point in progression might indeed be -2.15.
Perhaps, -2.15 would be IT for this cycle.

Next ATH might not even get to BETI=1.0 (achieved in 2017) and stop somewhere lower if peaks are actually on a declining trend (too small number of points so far).
Last peak was somewhat disappointing in that regard as I expected at least a match to 2013.

We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

I am getting BETI at -2.083 currently using the formula described here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26854986

Since -2.25 is an all time low (in 2011) with second low in 2015 at -2.2, next point in progression might indeed be -2.15.
Perhaps, -2.15 would be IT for this cycle.

Next ATH might not even get to BETI=1.0 (achieved in 2017) and stop somewhere lower if peaks are actually on a declining trend (too small number of points so far).
Last peak was somewhat disappointing in that regard as I expected at least a match to 2013.

of00160

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 1

Quote from: Bitcoinaire on February 09, 2019, 11:46:54 AM

It looks like we have to break -1.75 to be sure we've left the bear market and are in a new bull market.

That could like breaking above 6k.
The trololo line on Tradingview is at fair value.
Btc have be trading on avg above that line the last 7years.
The trololo line is at ~3500

Bitcoinaire

sr. member

Activity: 696

Merit: 439

It looks like we have to break -1.75 to be sure we've left the bear market and are in a new bull market.

keystroke

hero member

Activity: 900

Merit: 1014

advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

-2.15 at the moment.

of00160

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 1

Quote from: Iris_Colt on November 29, 2018, 04:35:51 AM

Just a quick update...

Date 11/28/18
VWAP $4,098.94
x 3056
y 8.318484
a (slope) historical +0.0032121222
b (intercept) historical -0.0144982009
Rsq historical 0.869245
BETI historical -1.483263
Expected price historical $18,065.28
Actual price / expected price historical 22.68% (kek!)

-2.00 $2,444.87
-1.50 $4,030.91
-1.00 $6,645.84
-0.50 $10,957.15
-0.25 $14,069.25
+0.00 $18,065.28
+0.25 $23,196.27
+0.50 $29,784.61
+1.00 $49,106.52

The BIT historical is BElow -2 as of 1/22/19. The market is seriously undervalued.

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

Quote from: Dogboy714 on December 08, 2018, 12:31:20 AM

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.

No need to abandon the log scale. Only needs judicious choice of curve. SQRT it is.
I ran some numbers on the price history and fitted a square root baseline. Vertical axis, log of dollars.

This chart shows the relation between the price and the baseline over time.

Bitcoinaire

sr. member

Activity: 696

Merit: 439

Quote from: of00160 on December 10, 2018, 10:58:43 PM

Quote from: infofront on December 09, 2018, 06:43:50 PM

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

The chart has been updated recently by Marc De Mesel
Below is the link to his YT video.
I refer to this chart and believe would could see more than 75% undervaluation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s

He's counting 2015 as the beginning of the bull market, but it was range bound ($200-$300) the first 10/11 months.

of00160

newbie

Activity: 8

Merit: 1

Quote from: infofront on December 09, 2018, 06:43:50 PM

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart.png

The chart has been updated recently by Marc De Mesel
Below is the link to his YT video.
I refer to this chart and believe would could see more than 75% undervaluation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s

Dogboy714

jr. member

Activity: 51

Merit: 11

Mapping that graph into some colors to represent the halving might be kinda fun...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1068473233056382981

infofront

legendary

Activity: 2660

Merit: 2868

Shitcoin Minimalist

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

mmortal03

legendary

Activity: 1762

Merit: 1011

Quote from: Majormax on December 09, 2018, 12:02:20 PM

Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !

And always buy the dip! Tongue

Majormax

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1129

Looking back (for many years) on all the speculation and price-following threads there is one trend that seems to be consistent.

Price forecasts (even correct ones) are always on a time scale which turns out to be too short. In other words ppl always expect the price action (target) to come a lot sooner than it actually does.

Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !

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