Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 10. (Read 110414 times)

how do you think alts affect beti calculation?

It is -0.43 BETI and $12327 expected price now.

Would be great to see an update of the graph but it has been some time since jl2012 doesn't post here.

So we're in nicely negative beti territory now, somewhere around -0.32/33 area?   If we repeat previous post bubble behaviour with lows in the -2 area, that looks like 3.5kish at year end. Don't suppose you could repost the time series graphs jl2012 ( last ones were 2/2 I think)?

Real time expected (BETI 0) price is $11792 now.

We are at BETI -0.2445 and expected price today is: $10708.

It doesn't seem that the crossover will happen before over 11K.

Update? 

yeah, i get that, which is why i bring up capitulation. gotta shake them trees, and create some bottom selling. that creates fuel for future rallies. i'm just disappointed to see no big volume coming in to indicate that kind of despair and mass selling. no such luck.

who knows, though. maybe this is a low-volume retest of the lows.


yeah i originally thought this could resemble that fractal. and it still can, as long as we don't go below $6000. if we start pushing below there, there was so much volume on that feb 5 candle that we'll probably go significantly lower. and it'll look like 2011.

No one is pointing towards a double bottom here reflecting the "first bubble" in 2013 at around $250. I think that's still on the table until we go below -.5 BETI. We bounced back at around -.4 correct?

I don't know much about fractals except they seem to work sometimes...

I just think most peoples are used to that kind of drop and don't care anymore.
Also new peoples are educated by olders about the past performances of BTC.

Everybody is aware of the dump from 1k to $250.
All dumps looks less dramatic than they were.

Yeah that's my feeling as well. The bounces are weak and many new people still seem to be in a too good mood.
If the honeybadger decides to take a long and deep dive, we could see a huge washout in the whole crypto space. The crypto winter may just have started. Many people will leave crying.
But maybe that's what we need right now after all this ICO and altcoin p&d craziness.

You are experiencing the first signs of despair. Welcome the pain. It is a necessary part of the process.

Btw in April ‘13 after the low of $45 we only made a 33% retrace bounce. But I don’t want to get your hopes up.

i didn't say it feels like 2014. i said it's more bearish. and yes, i was around back then. after the initial crash, we made a 78.6% retrace. this time? we barely got past 38.2% and now we're approaching $6000 again.

i'm just taken aback by the sentiment and the perpetual lack of bounce. the market has flushed out 50% of longs, while shorts are again nearing all-time highs. yet still we bleed. not impressed by the volume on this dump either. no capitulation here....

LOL. It does not feel like 2014. Were you around then? It does feel kinda bearish though.

unfortunately, given the weakness of every bounce since the december top, the chart is significantly more bearish than 2014. it's really starting to look like a non-stop massacre just like 2011. i wasn't around at that time, so i can't comment on what sentiment was like. but it seems like the closest parallel we have right now.

whatever happens, a 95% decline isn't the end of the world. but it would be painful. this board would probably be a ghost town.

going the wrong direction.... looks to me like we are in a major bear cycle....

Result: 10161
Bitfinex: 8439

I believe the trend is low. Even with BET at a much higher value. Low volume and market uncertainties are high. I was imagining that the Asian market would wake up pulling the value further down breaking the 7k.

According to the realtime page BETI expected price for today is: 9815

So we are at -0.1749 BETI.

Would love to see price over 0 BETI sometime soon... maybe when it is already at $10K+.

It's good to be back in positive territory. Let's keep it up.

So sad that I didn't have the money to invest more on this day. But as the graphic shows, anything between 9k and 12k should be great for buying if you invest thinking in only use after October.

Real time BETI is hovering around zero.

I posit that this time we might have something similar to the 2011 "bubble" rather than 2013 as in:
shallower peak (peaked at BETI about 1.0), down to around zero, up to around BETI 0.5, down to around BETI -0.5, then an absolute rip to BETI above 1.5, maybe even ATH above 1.87.

see graph here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26855063

The approximate numbers are difficult to determine because they adjust in time, but based off of Feb 3 numbers:

BETI 0 is currently approx 9152 (from the real time wolfram graph)
BETI 0.5 would be probably about $15000 (a short term target)
BETI -0.5 would be about 5600-6000 (basically, a double bottom)
BETI 1.87 would be about 60,000

All numbers will trend upwards as time progresses, so numbers have to be adjusted depending on how much time it takes.
In 2011, down to the first bottom it took about 1.5 mo, which fits well in 2018, then meandering for a bit with a second intermediary top in about 2.5 mo after the bottom; this places the local peak at about mid-late April 2018, then sharp down for about two mo until mid-late June 2018, then the major rip up for about 3mo until the end of September in this scenario.

It is possible that timeframes would stretch, but I consider the whole scenario of a double dip with about 15K (plus minus a thou or two) intermediate top quite likely.

Whether the longer term top would be in September or in Nov-Dec (more likely) remains to be seen.