BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 7.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: windjc on September 04, 2018, 08:30:51 PM

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

I was going to ask Iris_Colt why they thought BETI was bound for -2.0. Then I saw the chart. Unfortunately, it sure looks like historical support lies closer to the -2.0 area.

Anyone know what kind of range to expect for -2.0, 3 months or 6 months from now? (assuming we stay sideways)

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 06, 2018, 09:04:04 AM

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

Why 7 years? Shocked

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Just a not-so-quick update.

The stats are obtained as follows:

All the historical BTC/USD data available at bitcoincharts,com is used.
So a total of 175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today are used.
The exchanges included are: 1coin, abucoins, allcoin, anxhk, b2c, b7, bcLR, bcmBM, bcmLR, bcmMB, bcmPP, bitalo, bitbay, bitbox, bitcurex, bitfinex, bitfloor, bitflyer, bitkonan, bitmarket, bitme, bitstamp, btc24, btcalpha, btcc, btce, btcex, btctree, cbx, cex, coinbase, coinsbank, cotr, cryptox, crytr, exchb, exmo, fbtc, getbtc, global, hitbtc, ibwt, icbit, imcex, indacoin, intrsng, itbit, just, kraken, lake, localbtc, lybit, mtgox, okcoin, ripple, rock, ruxum, thLR, th, vcx, weex, wex

Date 9/6/18
VWAP $6422.69
x 2973
y 8.767592
a (slope) historical +0.00327084849169102
b (intercept) historical -0.069262946826707
Rsq historical 0.864354018483482
BETI historical -0.887377824698852
Expected Price historical $15,599.11
Actual price / expected price historical 41.1733977153379%

-2.00 $2,111.11
-1.50 $3,480.63
-1.00 $5,738.59
-0.50 $9,461.34
-0.25 $12,148.60
+0.00 $15,599.11
+0.25 $20,029.66
+0.50 $25,718.60
+1.00 $42402.80

You know... It cannot be more comprehensive than this... and the result is very similar to the one using just Mt Gox and Bitstamp.

Mallyx

hero member

Activity: 1138

Merit: 574

Quote from: Kaydking on September 06, 2018, 08:44:17 AM

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

As we are on BETI -0.89, we can still expect to going down to -2.
It's only an indicator that tell us how low or high it can go.

mmortal03

legendary

Activity: 1762

Merit: 1011

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 06, 2018, 09:04:04 AM

Quote from: Kaydking on September 06, 2018, 08:44:17 AM

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

lol, make sure to buy the dip really hard, that way it doesn't last that long.

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: il_minatore on September 06, 2018, 04:45:17 AM

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

By the way, il_minatore, feel free to make a list of your preferred exchanges, and I will produce the relevant BETI statistics.

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: Kaydking on September 06, 2018, 08:44:17 AM

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

Kaydking

newbie

Activity: 19

Merit: 0

hi you don't think that's a little bearish to think its going to drop that far down?

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: il_minatore on September 06, 2018, 04:45:17 AM

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

Okay. The following stats are obtained as follows:

Mt. Gox: from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
coinbase + bitstamp + btce + kraken + bitfinex + cex + lake + localbtc + wex + btcalpha + itbit + hitbtc: from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today

Date 9/6/18 (yeah, I am starting to have data available from today)
VWAP $6417.29
x 2973
y 8.766752
a (slope) historical +0.0032734323
b (intercept) historical -0.0742908548
Rsq historical 0.866719
BETI historical -0.890872
Expected Price historical $15,640.56
Actual price / expected price historical 41.03%

Not that it matters, kek.

il_minatore

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 05, 2018, 02:00:38 AM

Quote from: il_minatore on September 04, 2018, 10:28:03 AM

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b, where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

for the last few years, it would be better to use the sum of the shares of more exchange

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Just a quick update...

Date 9/5/18
VWAP $7055.87
x 2972
y 8.861616
a (slope) historical +0.0032683894
b (intercept) historical -0.0708358360
Rsq historical 0.866482
BETI historical -0.781202 (kek!)
Expected Price historical $15,410.70
Actual price / expected price historical 45.79%

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: il_minatore on September 04, 2018, 10:28:03 AM

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b, where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: windjc on September 04, 2018, 08:30:51 PM

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

In my humble opinion, BETI heads toward -2.0 (hopefully not).

DieJohnny

legendary

Activity: 1639

Merit: 1006

Feels like this past Dec pump to $20k was like the early pump in 2013 to $220.... which had a correction to 60s and then up to 1200. A parallel would be the Dec 20k corrects to 5000s and then up to 80-100k... is this then the Beti bottom? #BETIBOTTOM

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 04, 2018, 03:15:21 AM

Quote from: windjc on September 03, 2018, 09:11:46 PM

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

Thanks!

BETI very close to historical support at -1.

Maybe close to good bounce area.

il_minatore

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 04, 2018, 03:15:21 AM

Quote from: windjc on September 03, 2018, 09:11:46 PM

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

Hi,
how did you plot the last chart? thanks

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Quote from: windjc on September 03, 2018, 09:11:46 PM

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

https://i.imgur.com/Kd5wJPs.png

Mallyx

hero member

Activity: 1138

Merit: 574

Quote from: jl2012 on December 23, 2017, 04:43:49 PM

I think it's the more recent we have.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Iris_Colt on September 03, 2018, 03:10:29 AM

Just a quick update...

Date 9/2/18
VWAP $7244.62
x 2969
y 8.888014
a (slope) historical +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical -0.0723514146
Rsq historical 0.866297
BETI historical -0.748048
Expected Price historical $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical 47.33%

-2.00 $2,071.57
-1.50 $3,415.44
-1.00 $5,631.11
-0.50 $9,284.13
-0.25 $11,921.06
+0.00 $15,306.94
+0.25 $19,654.50
+0.50 $25,236.88
+1.00 $41,608.57

Would love to see a historical chart of last couple years.

Iris_Colt

newbie

Activity: 18

Merit: 10

Just a quick update...

Date 9/2/18
VWAP $7244.62
x 2969
y 8.888014
a (slope) historical +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical -0.0723514146
Rsq historical 0.866297
BETI historical -0.748048
Expected Price historical $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical 47.33%

-2.00 $2,071.57
-1.50 $3,415.44
-1.00 $5,631.11
-0.50 $9,284.13
-0.25 $11,921.06
+0.00 $15,306.94
+0.25 $19,654.50
+0.50 $25,236.88
+1.00 $41,608.57

birr

hero member

Activity: 870

Merit: 585

Quote from: Mallyx on August 28, 2018, 02:16:17 AM

Can we add the Dickline to BETI ? Grin

The dickline itself is mostly a curiosity, but that webpage you linked to has good, simple explanations of bitcoin and how it works. The webpage has the kinds of explanations that one might actually be able to use in discussions with people who don't appreciate the reality of crypto. I'm remembering in particular a cafe owner whom I met in Uruguay a few years ago. He was convinced that bitcoin is a criminal fraud. You have to use the simplest descriptive language possible with some people. The dickline webpage has good examples of simple explanations that almost anybody could understand, if their minds are even the littlest bit open.
Having said all that, I don't think the length of John McAfee's dick has very much to do with Bitcoin exponential price analysis. Cool

Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 7. (Read 110414 times)