Here's a bunch of new charts.
For ease of use, all my charts will have the following color coding:
Orange - refers to "Current" data, ie Current BETI, Current Expected Price, etc.
Red - refers to "Historical" data, ie Historical BETI, Historical Expected Price, etc.
Green - all trendlines
Chart 1 - Current BETI (orange)
- This chart shows high and low of BETI value
- This chart is fitted with all data from not only from that day and before that day, but also from all data up until today.
- If you discount the first 6 months or so, this chart has much smaller amplitudes than Historical BETI
- Current BETI and Historical BETI are always equal for today, thereafter, they drift apart
- I personally think that Current BETI is more accurate than Historical BETI because uses all the data. However I am no math/stats major.
- Someone more qualified can argue it is more relevant or less relevant than Historical BETI.
Chart 2 - Historical BETI (red)
- Chart should match jl2012's BETI chart he posts from time to time
- This chart shows high and low of BETI value
- As jl2012 says, for each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line.
- Historical BETI only use the VWAP data from today and all previous days
- Someone commented on the sloping green trendline. I think it's just an artifact of the mathematics, but don't know. Small tilt, don't think it means much
Chart 3 - Log chart - Historical Expected Price (red) vs Current Expected Price (orange)
- Chart should match jl2012's original chart on page 1
- All lines are natural logs of the argument other than the black BTC price
- Red line is Historical Expected Price. (ln(Historical Expected Price))
- Orange line is Current Expected Price. (ln(Current Expected Price))
- Notice how much variance there is between the two?
- Notice how they are currently converging?
- Do you think the Orange Current Expected price is a trendline?
- Let's see what happens if you put a trendline on it -- see Chart 4
- Blue line is VWAP. (ln(VWAP))
- Black line is actual BTC price.
- y-axis is ln(price)
Chart 4 - Same as Chart 3, but a green trendline added
- A green trendline of the ln(VWAP) has been added R^2 0.861
- Notice that the green trendline perfectly overlaps the orange Current Expected Price?
- Which looks like a better trendline, the orange/green Current Expected Price, or the red Historical Expected Price?
- If you like the orange/green Current Expected Price better, do you also like orange Chart 1 better?
- If you like the red Historical Price better, do you also like the red Chart 2 better?
Chart 5 - Sanity check of Chart 3
- Notice the chart has the same structure as Chart 3?
- But it a non log version
- y-axis is actual BTC VWAP
Chart 6 - Same as Chart 5, but with a green Exponential trendline thrown in
- Why does the green trendline look like that?
Chart 7 - Same as Chart 5, but with a green Linear trendline thrown in
- Wild curve trendline
- I think it resembles the popular Trolololo regression chart
Later, I'll post some examples of how Expected values vs Current values change over time.
For example, the VWAP Rankings change over time.
Charts:
https://imgur.com/a/sYJTGII 
