Date 6/24/18
VWAP $5,987.55
x 2899
y 8.697437835
a (slope) historical 0.003305994
b (intercept) historical -0.107952957
Rsq historical 0.860669
BETI historical -0.778
Expected Price historical $13,030.17
Actual price / expected price historical 45.95%
Expected Date historical 10/31/2017 19:05:20
# of Days ahead historical -235.2046313
Daily VWAP Rank historical 240
Next expected price historical $13,073.32
-2.25 $1,373.37
-2.00 $1,763.44
-1.75 $2,264.30
-1.50 $2,907.42
-1.25 $3,733.21
-1.00 $4,793.53
-0.75 $6,155.02
-0.50 $7,903.20
-0.25 $10,147.91
0.00 $13,030.17
0.25 $16,731.08
0.50 $21,483.13
0.75 $27,584.88
1.00 $35,419.69
1.25 $45,479.78
1.50 $58,397.19
1.75 $74,983.48
2.00 $96,280.69
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 9. (Read 110400 times)
...? can you explain how the charts work a bit more?
OK. Give me a bit of time.
Date 6/23/18
VWAP $6,137.49
x 2898
y 8.72217093
a (slope) historical 0.003306552
b (intercept) historical -0.108492314
Rsq historical 0.860605
BETI historical -0.751
Expected Price historical $13,001.15
Actual price / expected price historical 47.21%
Expected Date historical 11/7/17
# of Days ahead historical -227.01
Daily VWAP Rank historical 235
Next expected price historical $13,044.21
-2.25 $1,370.31
-2.00 $1,759.51
-1.75 $2,259.26
-1.50 $2,900.95
-1.25 $3,724.89
-1.00 $4,782.85
-0.75 $6,141.31
-0.50 $7,885.59
-0.25 $10,125.30
0.00 $13,001.15
0.25 $16,693.80
0.50 $21,435.27
0.75 $27,523.43
1.00 $35,340.78
1.25 $45,378.46
1.50 $58,267.09
1.75 $74,816.43
2.00 $96,066.19
VWAP $6,137.49
x 2898
y 8.72217093
a (slope) historical 0.003306552
b (intercept) historical -0.108492314
Rsq historical 0.860605
BETI historical -0.751
Expected Price historical $13,001.15
Actual price / expected price historical 47.21%
Expected Date historical 11/7/17
# of Days ahead historical -227.01
Daily VWAP Rank historical 235
Next expected price historical $13,044.21
-2.25 $1,370.31
-2.00 $1,759.51
-1.75 $2,259.26
-1.50 $2,900.95
-1.25 $3,724.89
-1.00 $4,782.85
-0.75 $6,141.31
-0.50 $7,885.59
-0.25 $10,125.30
0.00 $13,001.15
0.25 $16,693.80
0.50 $21,435.27
0.75 $27,523.43
1.00 $35,340.78
1.25 $45,378.46
1.50 $58,267.09
1.75 $74,816.43
2.00 $96,066.19
...? can you explain how the charts work a bit more?
total market must grow 10x times from now. after that growing analysis and indicators will work more stable. with this market some exchanges manipulate easily.
OK. I hear and understand your point and it would be interesting to see the results you speak of.
But what about the 'current' chart? One can argue that since we are now in the future and have more data, it is best to apply that data going backwards to make a more accurate chart. At this point I am not convinced the historical chart is as accurate as the current chart.
And the current chart already has a perfectly flat 0 trendline.
Date 6/22/18
VWAP $6,283.20
x 2897
y 8.745634836
a (slope) historical 0.003307090
b (intercept) historical -0.109013175
Rsq historical 0.860539
BETI historical -0.725
Expected Price historical $12,971.70
Actual price / expected price historical 48.44%
Expected Date historical 11/14/17
# of Days ahead historical -219.19
Daily VWAP Rank historical 234
Next expected price historical $13,014.67
-2.25 $1,367.21
-2.00 $1,755.53
-1.75 $2,254.14
-1.50 $2,894.38
-1.25 $3,716.45
-1.00 $4,772.02
-0.75 $6,127.40
-0.50 $7,867.73
-0.25 $10,102.37
0.00 $12,971.70
0.25 $16,655.99
0.50 $21,386.71
0.75 $27,461.08
1.00 $35,260.73
1.25 $45,275.67
1.50 $58,135.11
1.75 $74,646.96
2.00 $95,848.59
But what about the 'current' chart? One can argue that since we are now in the future and have more data, it is best to apply that data going backwards to make a more accurate chart. At this point I am not convinced the historical chart is as accurate as the current chart.
And the current chart already has a perfectly flat 0 trendline.
Date 6/22/18
VWAP $6,283.20
x 2897
y 8.745634836
a (slope) historical 0.003307090
b (intercept) historical -0.109013175
Rsq historical 0.860539
BETI historical -0.725
Expected Price historical $12,971.70
Actual price / expected price historical 48.44%
Expected Date historical 11/14/17
# of Days ahead historical -219.19
Daily VWAP Rank historical 234
Next expected price historical $13,014.67
-2.25 $1,367.21
-2.00 $1,755.53
-1.75 $2,254.14
-1.50 $2,894.38
-1.25 $3,716.45
-1.00 $4,772.02
-0.75 $6,127.40
-0.50 $7,867.73
-0.25 $10,102.37
0.00 $12,971.70
0.25 $16,655.99
0.50 $21,386.71
0.75 $27,461.08
1.00 $35,260.73
1.25 $45,275.67
1.50 $58,135.11
1.75 $74,646.96
2.00 $95,848.59
I see what you are saying. I'd first have to see how to generate all the coordinates of that green line. Right now its just an auto generated green line.
great....I would be interested, as I think it would give some insight as to the true beti.
Also a Beti for total market cap of all cryptos from CMC would be interesting
I *suspect* that the beti going down (the slope) would be almost taken back to zero, by the CMC delta for all others.
Put another way I suspect that crypto as a whole has 0.0 beti, but BTC loss of dominace will account for the negative slope of beti you see in the graphs.
Early indications: BETI dropped to roughly -0.725.
I see what you are saying. I'd first have to see how to generate all the coordinates of that green line. Right now its just an auto generated green line.
ok so the trend line in green of beti appears to be sloping down,
but the beti is quoted to against zero, but would you not have to move the zero the average of the beti or some such?
tl;dr where is your 0 and why?
I made 2 charts. "Historical" and "Current".
I think zero is still zero and relevant in both of the charts.
"Historical" chart computes its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on that day's parameters and all days preceding it. However as new regression becomes available, it never uses any future data to recompute the past.
"Current" chart re-computes all past regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on all knowledge to date using current data regression parameters. Past BETI values will change.
The latest BETI (todays) will always match on each chart.
Thereafter, the values will diverge.
My naming may be backwards or confusing. Perhaps a better name for "Historical" would have been "Instantaneous", and maybe I should call "Current", "Historical".
I guess its all the way you look at it.
I am not sure of the significance of the green line. I am no maths nor stats major.
Perhaps jl2012 will be back and chime in.
https://i.imgur.com/VlU5czu.png
I kinda think a chart plotted to the beti slope line and recalculated from that may provide an interesting insight and is perhaps more correct. It would seem to allow for the "beti" to be calculated vs the expected eg. Sort of like a tare for weight.
I am not sure though how historical and current can be both correct.....from the data.....
I suppose what I am saying is the historical green line is actually your x axis.....
ok so the trend line in green of beti appears to be sloping down,
but the beti is quoted to against zero, but would you not have to move the zero the average of the beti or some such?
tl;dr where is your 0 and why?
I made 2 charts. "Historical" and "Current".
I think zero is still zero and relevant in both of the charts.
"Historical" chart computes its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on that day's parameters and all days preceding it. However as new regression becomes available, it never uses any future data to recompute the past.
"Current" chart re-computes all past regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on all knowledge to date using current data regression parameters. Past BETI values will change.
The latest BETI (todays) will always match on each chart.
Thereafter, the values will diverge.
My naming may be backwards or confusing. Perhaps a better name for "Historical" would have been "Instantaneous", and maybe I should call "Current", "Historical".
I guess its all the way you look at it.
I am not sure of the significance of the green line. I am no maths nor stats major.
Perhaps jl2012 will be back and chime in.
hang on that beti trendline .... defn sloping down always .... so why 0? is offsetting to the trendline more a better measure?
What do you mean, I don't understand your question?
ok so the trend line in green of beti appears to be sloping down,
but the beti is quoted to against zero, but would you not have to move the zero the average of the beti or some such?
tl;dr where is your 0 and why?
hi, it's possible to use the sum of more exchanges (3 or 5 major) to calculate VWAP? Thanks
Yes. But it would take a bit of work to gather the data sources. Merge and sort them, then I can rerun the calculations. If someone wants to send me the merged file.
hi, it's possible to use the sum of more exchanges (3 or 5 major) to calculate VWAP? Thanks
Date 6/18/18
VWAP $6,551.36
x 2893
y 8.787428621
a (slope) historical 0.003309021
b (intercept) historical -0.110879151
Rsq historical 0.860242
BETI historical -0.674
Expected Price historical $12,848.92
Actual price / expected price historical 50.99%
Expected Date historical 11/26/17
# of Days ahead historical -203.56
Daily VWAP Rank historical 221
Next expected price historical $12,891.51
-2.25 $1,354.27
-2.00 $1,738.91
-1.75 $2,232.81
-1.50 $2,866.98
-1.25 $3,681.28
-1.00 $4,726.85
-0.75 $6,069.40
-0.50 $7,793.27
-0.25 $10,006.75
0.00 $12,848.92
0.25 $16,498.34
0.50 $21,184.29
0.75 $27,201.17
1.00 $34,926.99
1.25 $44,847.15
1.50 $57,584.88
1.75 $73,940.44
2.00 $94,941.41
VWAP $6,551.36
x 2893
y 8.787428621
a (slope) historical 0.003309021
b (intercept) historical -0.110879151
Rsq historical 0.860242
BETI historical -0.674
Expected Price historical $12,848.92
Actual price / expected price historical 50.99%
Expected Date historical 11/26/17
# of Days ahead historical -203.56
Daily VWAP Rank historical 221
Next expected price historical $12,891.51
-2.25 $1,354.27
-2.00 $1,738.91
-1.75 $2,232.81
-1.50 $2,866.98
-1.25 $3,681.28
-1.00 $4,726.85
-0.75 $6,069.40
-0.50 $7,793.27
-0.25 $10,006.75
0.00 $12,848.92
0.25 $16,498.34
0.50 $21,184.29
0.75 $27,201.17
1.00 $34,926.99
1.25 $44,847.15
1.50 $57,584.88
1.75 $73,940.44
2.00 $94,941.41
hang on that beti trendline .... defn sloping down always .... so why 0? is offsetting to the trendline more a better measure?
What do you mean, I don't understand your question?
hang on that beti trendline .... defn sloping down always .... so why 0? is offsetting to the trendline more a better measure?
Thanks JL2012 for the idea.
Since he hasn't updated in a while, here you go.
Date 6/15/18
VWAP $6,545.67
x 2890
y 8.786559194
a (slope) historical 0.003310
b (intercept) historical -0.112294
Rsq historical 0.860021
BETI historical -0.667
Expected Price historical $12,757.93
Actual price / expected price historical 51.31%
Expected Date historical 11/25/17
# of Days ahead historical -201.59
Daily VWAP Rank historical 222
Next expected price historical $12,800.23
BETI (Historical) and BETI (Current) Chart
-2.25 $1,344.68
-2.00 $1,726.60
-1.75 $2,217.00
-1.50 $2,846.68
-1.25 $3,655.21
-1.00 $4,693.38
-0.75 $6,026.42
-0.50 $7,738.07
-0.25 $9,935.88
0.00 $12,757.93
0.25 $16,381.50
0.50 $21,034.27
0.75 $27,008.53
1.00 $34,679.64
1.25 $44,529.54
1.50 $57,177.07
1.75 $73,416.81
2.00 $94,269.04
Sorry, I can't post inline pictures here as a Newbie since I never bothered making an account (been here a long time).
Since he hasn't updated in a while, here you go.
Date 6/15/18
VWAP $6,545.67
x 2890
y 8.786559194
a (slope) historical 0.003310
b (intercept) historical -0.112294
Rsq historical 0.860021
BETI historical -0.667
Expected Price historical $12,757.93
Actual price / expected price historical 51.31%
Expected Date historical 11/25/17
# of Days ahead historical -201.59
Daily VWAP Rank historical 222
Next expected price historical $12,800.23
BETI (Historical) and BETI (Current) Chart
-2.25 $1,344.68
-2.00 $1,726.60
-1.75 $2,217.00
-1.50 $2,846.68
-1.25 $3,655.21
-1.00 $4,693.38
-0.75 $6,026.42
-0.50 $7,738.07
-0.25 $9,935.88
0.00 $12,757.93
0.25 $16,381.50
0.50 $21,034.27
0.75 $27,008.53
1.00 $34,679.64
1.25 $44,529.54
1.50 $57,177.07
1.75 $73,416.81
2.00 $94,269.04
Sorry, I can't post inline pictures here as a Newbie since I never bothered making an account (been here a long time).
Would be great to see an update of the graph but it has been some time since jl2012 doesn't post here.
Here's my version:
Maybe BETI -1.16 is the new -2.23?
Given 4 month old regression values as per jl2012's last February post:
todays BETI = -0.737
BETI -1.16 = $4144
BETI -2.23 = $1423
We could stay at today's price until Sep.1 2019 @ BETI -2.23
We could stay at today's price until Oct 17 2018 @ BETI -1.16
($6270)
todays BETI = -0.737
BETI -1.16 = $4144
BETI -2.23 = $1423
We could stay at today's price until Sep.1 2019 @ BETI -2.23
We could stay at today's price until Oct 17 2018 @ BETI -1.16
($6270)
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