BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 3.

Dogboy714

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Quote from: exstasie on December 11, 2019, 11:56:37 AM

Quote from: bitserve on December 10, 2019, 09:53:37 PM

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

BETI is a dead indicator that never should have been born. Sorry...

exstasie

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Quote from: bitserve on December 10, 2019, 09:53:37 PM

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

josegines

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Probably, over the years, parameters a and b should be changed, so that the price curve adapts better.

For example, this is what you get with:

a = 0.00285
b = -0.12

tmfp

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"Common rogue from Russia with a bare ass."

Quote from: bitserve on December 10, 2019, 09:53:37 PM

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Never say never....

bitserve

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Self made HODLER ✓

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

windjc

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Quote from: Biodom on June 29, 2019, 09:03:25 PM

Quote from: windjc on June 29, 2019, 06:17:01 PM

Quote from: Biodom on June 26, 2019, 11:28:42 AM

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.

Interesting. What do you get for Nov. 2020?

Serious question.

(maybe we never see BETI at 0 again) Maybe -.5 instead.

I am wondering if BETI -.5 falls in the 80k-100k range somewhere between Oct. 2020 and Nov. 2021.

Biodom

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Quote from: windjc on June 29, 2019, 06:17:01 PM

Quote from: Biodom on June 26, 2019, 11:28:42 AM

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.

windjc

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Quote from: Biodom on June 26, 2019, 11:28:42 AM

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

Iris_Colt

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Sometimes we are looking for a trend without any evidence for a trend other than our attempts to draw a straight line. Life ain't that simple. Wink

Biodom

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My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

jubalix

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Some time ago ... I think I suggested in this tread normalising the curve for by the increase of market that the Alts represent.

Eg say the whole market cap at (t) it on the beti curve, then the bt % or that must be the actual beti value.

This may also have some sort of volume weighting as a second cut.

That is beti from day one can not really be applied to now as BTC was the whole market cap.

clearly now it is not.

DieJohnny

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Quote from: Biodom on May 24, 2019, 04:49:32 PM

Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.

McAfee would have to win his public wager for BETI to be revived as a viable indicator at this point. It is holding on by a thread staying above lowest score of 2.3. I think there are better fit models than BETI at this point. Still holding out hope though.

Biodom

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Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.

Cassius

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Relationship between chart and baseline is also very useful, so thanks again. It looks like +0.5-0.6 would be into bubble territory next time around.

Cassius

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Quote from: birr on April 12, 2019, 10:48:45 AM

@Cassius
parabola has an apex, so there's a time zero on this graph, before which price is undefined.
My latest equation has time zero as Sept 22, 2010. That is the day that realistic price discovery began, according to this mathematical scheme.
The equation for baseline (in red on the image) is
=0.0926237*(D^0.5)-1.57846
where D is days since Sept 22, 2010

If you want to extract a square root line from historical price data, the way to do it is swap axes. Make time a function of price, and do a quadratic regression on the data (dead easy). Then solve the quadratic.

Thanks! The equation I dug out and tweaked was 0.014*2^(0.32*sqrt(t)), starting from July 2010. It's not bad but not perfect. https://imgur.com/a/9YB1q4f
Your equation is quite a lot simpler by the look of it but I'm assuming more accurate.
I don't (currently) have the maths to fine tune this except by trial and error, so I appreciate the help. Please let me known any Twitter handle etc and I'll happily credit you on the site when we've got this up and running.

birr

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@Cassius
parabola has an apex, so there's a time zero on this graph, before which price is undefined.
My latest equation has time zero as Sept 22, 2010. That is the day that realistic price discovery began, according to this mathematical scheme.
The equation for baseline (in red on the image) is
=0.0926237*(D^0.5)-1.57846
where D is days since Sept 22, 2010

If you want to extract a square root line from historical price data, the way to do it is swap axes. Make time a function of price, and do a quadratic regression on the data (dead easy). Then solve the quadratic.

Cassius

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Quote from: birr on December 27, 2018, 10:38:58 PM

Quote from: Dogboy714 on December 08, 2018, 12:31:20 AM

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.

No need to abandon the log scale. Only needs judicious choice of curve. SQRT it is.
I ran some numbers on the price history and fitted a square root baseline. Vertical axis, log of dollars.

This chart shows the relation between the price and the baseline over time.

This is a great piece of work and just what I'm looking for.
I'm putting together a series of indicators and trends for a news site, www.bitcoinbulletin.org. The idea is to offer fundamental/long term price development and projects as well as short term indicators. The first category will include 200 WMA, log curve and 'expert' predictions for context; the second signals like NVT and Fear/Greed Index.
I've been particularly interested by Peterson's work on Facebook/Bitcoin network size, time and price in this paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3356098 This has proven an extremely good baseline for bitcoin's 'clean' price (i.e. non-bubble price).
@birr do you have the equation you used for that square root baseline? I've been struggling to come up with something meaningful myself.
Appreciate the work you've done on this and thanks in advance.

birr

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The trend line looks too high.

LUCKMCFLY

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It is interesting to see the different points of view that the technical analysis can give us, although as I see the market today, I think it is best to wait, because we are in a phase of accumulation, and the movements that occur from bitcoin upwards, can quickly fall because everyone wants to take profit ..

thepkbadger

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chart update, if anyone is interested...

Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 3. (Read 110400 times)