Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 12. (Read 110414 times)

Perhaps the graph on the chart is based on the historic BETI values, calculated on each day based on a and b values of that particular day? Just guessing. To get the correct answer, we'll have to wait for jl2012.

Nice. This article brought me here - http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-movement-explained-by-one-equation-fundstrat-tom-lee-metcalf-law-network-effect-2017-10

Very Nice! If it can reach the same peak level as in 2013 by the end of 2018 BTC would be at 300k$...

 

Hah, that's cool 

However, it seems to be a it off: For the 2013 bubble top, I get a BETI of ~2.9, when it should be around 1.5?

Date:   5-Jan-2018
BETI:   0.735
VWAP:   15982.36
x:   2,729
a:   0.003324
b:   -0.125535
Rsq:   0.839788
Expected price:   7666.08
Actual price / expected price:   208.48%
BETI ATL price:   825.35
BETI ATH price:   49629.15
Expected date:   14-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   221.05
Daily VWAP rank:   12
Next expected price:   7691.60
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00332359690643079++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.125535379095505+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00332359690643079++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.125535379095505+)
   
   
-1.00   2820.19
-0.75   3621.20
-0.50   4649.71
-0.25   5970.35
0.00   7666.08
0.25   9843.44
0.50   12639.23
0.75   16229.09
1.00   20838.56
1.25   26757.25
1.50   34356.98
1.75   44115.24
2.00   56645.09
2.25   72733.73
2.50   93391.96

It's a nice theory, but Bitcoin leads the market and all these other coins derive value for floating in bitcoin's orbit. So the BTC BETI is the BTC BETI. It should not be affected by total crypto market cap.

Of course, we have already seen this maximum level, which has already shown Bitcoin, That is it is 20,000 dollars. But it is possible to take into account other factors of influence. First of all, this is the fork season, which has already ended and probably will not affect the price increase.

first post here after lurking for a while..this very interesting thread and interesting BTC times (current bubble) have compelled me to post though ..

A thought: perhaps the underlying assumption of a log-linear relationship (log price, linear time) is incorrect and the time axis is also participating in a non-linear manner. For example, as BTC network/ecosystem gets larger and larger, the frequency of the swings and moves will also get farther and farther apart (because of that relatively increasing inertia as we move forward here.) Also the moves themselves (including the bubbles) will get drawn out over a larger time frame. If the previous bubble went through its parabolic rise in a week, for example, perhaps the next one would take all of a month (again as an example). Of course I do agree that absolute prediction is a ridiculous prospect - all kinds of random events can influence and there are different aggregates of rational and irrational behavior in the market as a whole at any given time.

Another thought: considering that the entrance of alternative cryptocurrencies is dissipating and perhaps will increasingly dissipate some of the energy in bitcoins successive bubble phases (such that the peaks of this and subsequent bubbles will be at lower and lower BETI values as a result of some of that cap being eaten up by the growing ETH's, BCH, LTC's and the like...i'm not saying zero sum game, all boats are going to continue rising here..but perhaps there is a resulting effect of dampening the acceleration somewhat..

Finally in concert with the thoughts above...I would argue that the periodic irrational 'bubble' phases that occur diverge wildly from the "true value" of bitcoin at that given point in time to a drastic extent (not a controversial point.) When it then eventually corrects back to the "boring lows", it is reasonable to assume that it is gravitating back to a more reasonable estimate of the "true value" growth of bitcoin at that point in time. If you just take these intervening periods when the world at large forgets about bitcoin for a while, there is still good growth, but the slope of this trend is very definitely NOT linear...as time goes on the trend of the 'lows', or what I am saying is an analog of a market assessed 'book value' of bitcoin, more resembles a sideways parabolic trend as shown in the image below.

http://i68.tinypic.com/29wo8s4.png

If this updated assumption is accepted the previous bubbles then get corrected BETI values in the range of 2.4 to 3.2 (difference of Ln price and the parabolic). Using these values in the current bubble phase we are in right now gives estimates of:

BETI ATL (2.4) = approx $19,800
BETI ATH (3.2) = approx $47,900

So in this model, we could already have hit the current bubble peak (presuming we top out at BETI ATL) and we are now beginning our protracted correction back down to meet the 'book value' growth curve (grey sideways parabola in image). OR, we could be hanging out for a spell and will be at ~50k in the coming weeks/months (before the then inevitable protracted correction back to 'book value' growth again). Of course we could also land somewhere in between as well.

It also implies that whether 20k or 50k or somewhere in between, the next bubble after this one could potentially be 5 years or more down the road, and when it does hit, would likely not be the one that takes it over a million (presuming nothing else gets in the way to derail the BTC manifest destiny before that )

Presuming we can get another couple of these bubbles, I think we still get to 1 million / BTC (or greater)...it just might take a little longer than what the original model prescribes.

Sorry for the book. Thoughts?

I completely agree with you, because today Bitcoin is unpredictable at all. Until today, I myself could not imagine that we would see such a large enough Maximum of 20,000 dollars for one Bitcoin, Although Until today the price has decreased by almost 40%. What can be difficult to predict in the future and therefore I worry very much about my contributions to Bitcoin. Perhaps it makes sense to pay attention to another alternative crypto currency, which will act as an asset.

We are still easily within the same parabola from the last 2 years. This consolidation speaks well for a jump well past $35k though. Had we continued on up to $35k without this pause, I think that would have seen the possible end of this bull run. Bitcoin may very well break $100k if another run about $17,500 is in the works. 

Yes this is definitely a completely new situation we've never seen before when BETI crossed above zero.
Bitcoin's fundamentals are looking good and really promising, therefore I believe the honeybadger is just taking a rest and he will continue moving up again when he thinks it's time to do so.
And then maybe later, after another crazy parabolic run, we'll see a blow off , who knows.

Maybe we should educate ourselves again of possibility of days where volatility could be very low
Looks like btc is consolidating that's not very exciting as next move could be up or down, difficult to predict！

Date:   26-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.737
VWAP:   15342.51
x:   2,719
a:   0.003318
b:   -0.120775
Rsq:   0.838035
Expected price:   7345.61
Actual price / expected price:   208.87%
BETI ATL price:   790.84
BETI ATH price:   47554.46
Expected date:   4-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   221.95
Daily VWAP rank:   12
Next expected price:   7370.02
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331836433279664++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120774828196607+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331836433279664++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120774828196607+)
   
   
-1.00   2702.30
-0.75   3469.82
-0.50   4455.34
-0.25   5720.76
0.00   7345.61
0.25   9431.95
0.50   12110.86
0.75   15550.65
1.00   19967.43
1.25   25638.69
1.50   32920.73
1.75   42271.05
2.00   54277.11
2.25   69693.18
2.50   89487.82

Bitcoin has rarely fallen under the 200 day ma, which is around $5800 right now. When it has fallen bellow the ma, it bounces right back above it. It fell twice below it in 2015, once at the bear market low in January and again later in the summer, both times bouncing right back.

There will not be a major crash wiping people out anytime soon, maybe after we reach 100k and fall back to whatever the 200ma is at that time, maybe 10k?

In any event, we still have along way to go.

The longer we go without a bear market, the less likely we get one as we approach the next having.

It is entirely possible we bull right into 2021 and then go bear after a crazy rally. But even then, the low will still be higher than it is today.

With lightning, confidential transactions and Coinjoin or even MimbleWimble Bitcoin can and will be very private as well.
And why shall people use Ripple and when Paypal is around or they can just continue using CCs for that.
Sorry but I don't see a real advantage there in a centralized "coin", when traditional payment methods do the same already since many decades.
Bitcoin's price discovery is very volatile, but will decrease significantly imo as soon it hits the 6 figures in terms of value.
Then you will start seeing Bitcoin being used as a currency as well, especially with L2 and even L3 implementations. Just a matter of time.
The devs are doing an outstanding job and without all the distraction imo they would already be one step further.

Yeah, and most people also don't want a volatile currency. So, why Ripple, instead of just PayPal or Venmo? I wrote something about this earlier this year: https://mmortal03.wordpress.com/2017/05/27/ripple-is-better-than-bitcoin-and-the-banks/

There are at least 10 other Alts that are trying to do what Satoshi originally envisioned in some variant or another. If Bitcoin were to stumble, any of them could take on the throne. Removing Bitcoin from possibilities I think you would see Ripple take over as #1, followed by Monero. Then all others would follow.

I only say ripple because most people don't care about decentralization or autonomy from governments. So most people will be fine owning Ripple and will fail to even understand why it is not really in the same game as bitcoin. Anon, decentralized, mineable coins however will always have a top dog. Right now it is Bitcoin, but it could just as easily be Dash, Monero, Verge, ZCash, ZCoin, Nav, et cetera.

Expected price:   7313.34

I am a little concern about that. I do not think that today's price is the best reflection of what it should be the natural course of Bitcoin. There is a lot of confusion about what we could do with Bitcoin and what it will be useful. But we could see he going to challenge ATH again and again before have a major correction that put some people out of the game.

Date:   25-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.646
VWAP:   13951.90
x:   2,718
a:   0.003318
b:   -0.120231
Rsq:   0.837857
Expected price:   7313.34
Actual price / expected price:   190.77%
BETI ATL price:   787.37
BETI ATH price:   47345.58
Expected date:   7-Jul-2018
# of days ahead:   194.68
Daily VWAP rank:   17
Next expected price:   7337.65
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331776554231735++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120231157798937+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331776554231735++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120231157798937+)
   
   
-1.00   2690.43
-0.75   3454.58
-0.50   4435.77
-0.25   5695.64
0.00   7313.34
0.25   9390.52
0.50   12057.66
0.75   15482.34
1.00   19879.72
1.25   25526.07
1.50   32776.12
1.75   42085.38
2.00   54038.69
2.25   69387.05
2.50   89094.74