BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 26.

xxnewbiecoinerxx

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.

I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??

Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth" Grin

invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: mmortal03 on May 25, 2017, 04:24:54 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on May 24, 2017, 11:49:01 PM

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.

If there is one thing interesting, it is the red line never went down since 2012. That means the expected price has always been going up, despite the long bear market from 2014-2016

mmortal03

legendary

Activity: 1762

Merit: 1011

Quote from: jl2012 on May 24, 2017, 11:49:01 PM

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: DoktorKopf on May 08, 2017, 05:31:24 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on May 06, 2017, 11:33:05 AM

Quote from: DoktorKopf on May 06, 2017, 06:51:31 AM

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

It is now within the historical resistance/support zone between -0.5 and -0.25 (about $2261 - $2900)

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Date:    24-May-2017
BETI:   -0.448
VWAP:    2383.53
x:    2503
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13940
Rsq:    0.80536
The day's expected price:    3729.25
Actual price / expected price:   63.91%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   401.50
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24142.65
Predicted date for today's price:    10-Jan-2017
Days ahead:    -133.97
Daily price rank:    1


(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334133418444225++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139397238706605+%29

DoktorKopf

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 1

Quote from: jl2012 on May 06, 2017, 11:33:05 AM

Quote from: DoktorKopf on May 06, 2017, 06:51:31 AM

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: Kramerc on May 06, 2017, 12:25:32 PM

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!

-0.5: e^-0.5 * 3581.65 = 2172
-0.25: e^-0.25 * 3581.65 = 2789

I think this is a reasonable target for the ATH of this cycle

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Date:    6-May-2017
BETI:   -0.843
VWAP:    1541.43
x:    2485
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.14936
Rsq:    0.80347
The day's expected price:    3581.65
Actual price / expected price:   43.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   385.61
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23187.12
Predicted date for today's price:    27-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -251.43
Daily price rank:    2


(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335329351227614++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.14935505125607+%29

Kramerc

sr. member

Activity: 397

Merit: 250

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Quote from: DoktorKopf on May 06, 2017, 06:51:31 AM

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

DoktorKopf

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 1

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

New high: -0.833

Date:    5-May-2017
BETI:   -0.833
VWAP:    1554.61
x:    2484
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15004
Rsq:    0.80339
The day's expected price:    3574.51
Actual price / expected price:   43.49%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.84
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23140.89
Predicted date for today's price:    29-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -248.23
Daily price rank:    1


(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335411393062548++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150035741705351+%29

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

jl2012,

Thank you for this service. We appreciate. WTRYs, etc.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

New high since 2014: -0.84

Date:    4-May-2017
BETI:   -0.840
VWAP:    1540.55
x:    2483
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15071
Rsq:    0.80331
The day's expected price:    3567.32
Actual price / expected price:   43.18%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.07
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23094.35
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -250.28
Daily price rank:    1


(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335492477428623++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150708216888686+%29

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

BETI has been making higher highs and higher lows since the bottom around Sept 2015. Yesterday it was -0.879. It is a resistance and support level historically, so I expect we will see some resistance here. As long as it does not go below $1000, it's still making a higher low and the upward trend is still intact.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Date:    3-May-2017
BETI:   -0.879
VWAP:    1478.69
x:    2482
a:    0.00336
b:    -0.15139
Rsq:    0.80322
The day's expected price:    3560.19
Actual price / expected price:   41.53%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   383.30
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23048.15
Predicted date for today's price:    14-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -261.84
Daily price rank:    1


(See OP for explanation)



https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335574316638638++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.151386678591431+%29

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Quote from: jl2012 on February 24, 2017, 02:06:48 AM

Quote from: Biodom on February 23, 2017, 01:31:30 PM

^^^Well, based on comparison with 2011-2013 we are coming up shallower, but had a couple of sharp bumpletts already.
Most likely scenarios:
1. we are about to undergo a "phase transition" and go for a sharp local super-exponential peak OR
2. wiggle down to -1.2-1.25 before doing #1

Both scenarios would favor long positions, but wiggle down to $800-900 might be possible on ETF rejection, for example, which would be hopefully dismissed by the market.
jl2012 provides numbers for the all-time high, but I am curious, what would 1 or 1.5 peak look like in current numbers (1.87 might be too extreme).

the formula for BETI = x is: 3166.72 * e ^ x. For x = 1, it's $8608

making $8608-14912 a possible supra-exponential peak.
If it happens, I might sell 10-30% there, most likely.

jl2012

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1111

Date:    1-Mar-2017
BETI:   -0.974
VWAP:    1210.05
x:    2419
a:    0.00342
b:    -0.20593
Rsq:    0.80049
The day's expected price:    3206.33
Actual price / expected price:   37.74%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   345.20
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   20757.37
Predicted date for today's price:    20-May-2016
Days ahead:    -284.73
Daily price rank:    1


(See OP for explanation)

Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 26. (Read 110414 times)