The logistic curve models an idealization of the fact that nothing grows forever. Every market matures, or approaches saturation. The logistic curve probably has little practical use for predicting price, but expecting unbounded exponential increase is even less realistic. The logistic essentially models bounded exponential growth.
"Sigmoid" and "logistic" are more or less synonymous. The word sigmoid describes the shape of the logistic adoption curve, which looks like an S on a linear chart. On a log chart it looks different, of course.
Here's a graph of the log of the sigmoid function. I like to call it the "log logistic." I'm funny like that.
http://m.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=y%3Dlog%281%2F%281%2Be%5E%28-x%29%29%29%2C-10%3C%3Dx%3C%3D10%2C-10%3C%3Dy%3C%3D1&x=11&y=7
The sigmoid or logistic function can be expressed as y=1/(1+e^-x)
The left half of the log logistic is a straight line: exponential growth. The knee comes at x=0, and growth levels off.
The sigmoid has asymptotes at 0 and 1.
The sigmoid is the tanh (hyperbolic tangent) function shifted and scaled. Tanh has asymptotes at -1 and 1. Shrink it by half and move it up a little, and you have the logistic function.
I thought the Excel method I linked to in the previous post looked like the simplest way to curve-fit data on the logistic.
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 29. (Read 110414 times)
A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic. You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve. The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
Please show us.
A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic. You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve. The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
Date: 19-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.116
VWAP: 754.72
x: 2164
a: 0.00381
b: -0.50029
Rsq: 0.80325
The day's expected price: 2302.74
Actual price / expected price: 32.77%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 247.92
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14907.66
Predicted date for today's price: 31-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -292.88
Daily price rank: 58
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00380875683195971++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.500292709966313+%29
BETI: -1.116
VWAP: 754.72
x: 2164
a: 0.00381
b: -0.50029
Rsq: 0.80325
The day's expected price: 2302.74
Actual price / expected price: 32.77%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 247.92
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14907.66
Predicted date for today's price: 31-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -292.88
Daily price rank: 58
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00380875683195971++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.500292709966313+%29
mid-day update:
Date: 17-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.089
VWAP: 772.58
Not too far away from the ATH ($1126) at -0.712
Date: 17-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.089
VWAP: 772.58
Not too far away from the ATH ($1126) at -0.712
Date: 16-Jun-2016
BETI -1.132
VWAP: 738.45
x: 2161
a: 0.00381
b: -0.50342
Rsq: 0.80315
The day's expected price: 2290.80
Actual price / expected price: 32.24%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 246.63
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14830.31
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -296.90
Daily price rank: 60
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381308220797985++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.503415179191674+%29
BETI -1.132
VWAP: 738.45
x: 2161
a: 0.00381
b: -0.50342
Rsq: 0.80315
The day's expected price: 2290.80
Actual price / expected price: 32.24%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 246.63
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14830.31
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -296.90
Daily price rank: 60
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381308220797985++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.503415179191674+%29
mid-day update:
Date: 16-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.157
VWAP: 720.57
-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.
Date: 16-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.157
VWAP: 720.57
-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.
Thanks for the frequent updates in these more exciting times
mid-day update:
Date: 16-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.157
VWAP: 720.57
-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.
Date: 16-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.157
VWAP: 720.57
-1.2 is now around $685. It looks like a breakout from the -1.2 resistance.
Quick update: we are above -1.2 for the first time since Sept 2014
Date: 13-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.193
VWAP: 691.45
x: 2158
a: 0.00382
b: -0.50671
Rsq: 0.80310
The day's expected price: 2279.68
Actual price / expected price: 30.33%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 245.44
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14758.35
Predicted date for today's price: 5-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -312.49
Daily price rank: 72
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381765747919362++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.506713432324879+%29
Date: 13-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.193
VWAP: 691.45
x: 2158
a: 0.00382
b: -0.50671
Rsq: 0.80310
The day's expected price: 2279.68
Actual price / expected price: 30.33%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 245.44
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14758.35
Predicted date for today's price: 5-Aug-2015
Days ahead: -312.49
Daily price rank: 72
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381765747919362++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.506713432324879+%29
Quick update: we are approaching the important -1.2 resistance
Date: 12-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.264
VWAP: 643.09
x: 2157
a: 0.00382
b: -0.50782
Rsq: 0.80308
The day's expected price: 2276.03
Actual price / expected price: 28.26%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 245.04
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14734.71
Predicted date for today's price: 17-Jul-2015
Days ahead: -330.93
Daily price rank: 96
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381919878544692++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.50782352070271+%29
Date: 12-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.264
VWAP: 643.09
x: 2157
a: 0.00382
b: -0.50782
Rsq: 0.80308
The day's expected price: 2276.03
Actual price / expected price: 28.26%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 245.04
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14734.71
Predicted date for today's price: 17-Jul-2015
Days ahead: -330.93
Daily price rank: 96
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00381919878544692++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.50782352070271+%29
Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?
-1.2 would be $683
$680 seems to be a very interesting resistance level, suggested by other analysis with different method
https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/
---------
edit: please note that the local peaks at -1.2 during Oct-Nov 2014 were about $400. Since the trend is increasing, -1.2 at mid-June 2016 would be about $680
The BETI for breaking the $1126 ATH will be around -0.7
@jl2012
What would +2.00 be?
What would +2.00 be?
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14693.72
+2 is $16770
@jl2012
What would +2.00 be?
What would +2.00 be?
Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?
Forget -1.2. We're going back to 0.
Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?
-1.2 would be $683
Thanks for the update! Always liked this thread. So do you think we'll encounter more resistance at -1.2?
It seems the resistance at -1.4 has been broken.
Date: 10-Jun-2016
BETI: -1.371
VWAP: 576.10
x: 2155
a: 0.00382
b: -0.51026
Rsq: 0.80310
The day's expected price: 2269.70
Actual price / expected price: 25.38%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 244.36
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14693.72
Predicted date for today's price: 17-Jun-2015
Days ahead: -358.69
Daily price rank: 192
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00382257957102623++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.510256735157911+%29
BETI: -1.371
VWAP: 576.10
x: 2155
a: 0.00382
b: -0.51026
Rsq: 0.80310
The day's expected price: 2269.70
Actual price / expected price: 25.38%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 244.36
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 14693.72
Predicted date for today's price: 17-Jun-2015
Days ahead: -358.69
Daily price rank: 192
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00382257957102623++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.510256735157911+%29
Are you going to try fitting a logistic?
February 22, 2016, 01:41:19 PM
I am recently focusing on the development of segwit, and also the HF drama.
Seems we built a nice bottom at -1.7 with a ceiling at about -1.42
Seems we built a nice bottom at -1.7 with a ceiling at about -1.42
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