Ok, I failled!
I worked out (roughly speaking) the natural log of 855/2873..
I just used 'today's expected price from yesterday, assuming it wouldn't have changed that much.
Could I ask you jl2012 to post here the calculation that would equate -0.8 into $$ please? My pithy attempts failed unfortunately!
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 28. (Read 110400 times)
December 22, 2016, 03:41:14 AM
December 22, 2016, 03:15:37 AM
The current price, about $805, is about -1.274
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
It just hit $867.41 at bitstamp
Uncanny!
Above -1.2 where is the next resistance? From what i can discern from the chart you've posted, it looks like -0.8??
I'm going to try and work out what price point that would equate to and post my result here.
December 22, 2016, 02:46:58 AM
The current price, about $805, is about -1.274
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
It just hit $867.41 at bitstamp
December 21, 2016, 02:29:48 AM
The current price, about $805, is about -1.274
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
We have been above -1.3 for 5 days (including today) so it seems the -1.3 resistance has been broken. We are back to the pre-bitfinex hack level
The next resistance at -1.2 is $867
December 21, 2016, 02:22:24 AM
Date: 20-Dec-2016
BETI -1.287
VWAP: 793.38
x: 2348
a: 0.00351
b: -0.27433
Rsq: 0.79856
The day's expected price: 2873.72
Actual price / expected price: 27.61%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 309.39
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 18604.10
Predicted date for today's price: 19-Dec-2015
Days ahead: -366.85
Daily price rank: 53
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00350838687511128++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.274328262324383+%29
BETI -1.287
VWAP: 793.38
x: 2348
a: 0.00351
b: -0.27433
Rsq: 0.79856
The day's expected price: 2873.72
Actual price / expected price: 27.61%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 309.39
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 18604.10
Predicted date for today's price: 19-Dec-2015
Days ahead: -366.85
Daily price rank: 53
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00350838687511128++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.274328262324383+%29
December 17, 2016, 11:22:41 AM
Can we get another update? 
BETI is going up but -1.3 seems to be a major resistance level.
The June 2016 peak of -1.1 is now $949
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.93
Ah thanks! The last few months of rising price seem less impressive than I hoped
we had a rise of almost $10 per (average/bitstamp) for the last 69 weeks...
Very true, thats what I meant; that still doesn't look very impressive in this chart
maybe because average is linear and this index is exponential?
December 17, 2016, 11:19:55 AM
Can we get another update?
BETI is going up but -1.3 seems to be a major resistance level.
The June 2016 peak of -1.1 is now $949
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.93
Ah thanks! The last few months of rising price seem less impressive than I hoped
we had a rise of almost $10 per (average/bitstamp) for the last 69 weeks...
Very true, thats what I meant; that still doesn't look very impressive in this chart
December 16, 2016, 06:50:09 AM
Thanks for the data !
December 16, 2016, 06:14:19 AM
Can we get another update?
BETI is going up but -1.3 seems to be a major resistance level.
The June 2016 peak of -1.1 is now $949
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.93
Ah thanks! The last few months of rising price seem less impressive than I hoped
we had a rise of almost $10 per (average/bitstamp) for the last 69 weeks...
December 16, 2016, 03:52:56 AM
Can we get another update?
BETI is going up but -1.3 seems to be a major resistance level.
The June 2016 peak of -1.1 is now $949
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.93
Ah thanks! The last few months of rising price seem less impressive than I hoped
December 14, 2016, 11:16:26 PM
Can we get another update?
BETI is going up but -1.3 seems to be a major resistance level.
The June 2016 peak of -1.1 is now $949
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.93
December 14, 2016, 11:11:19 PM
Update:
Date: 14-Dec-2016
BETI -1.300
VWAP: 776.73
x: 2342
a: 0.00352
b: -0.28097
Rsq: 0.79859
The day's expected price: 2851.30
Actual price / expected price: 27.24%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 306.98
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 18458.91
Predicted date for today's price: 10-Dec-2015
Days ahead: -369.77
Daily price rank: 56
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00351686389202846++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.28096579398529+%29
Date: 14-Dec-2016
BETI -1.300
VWAP: 776.73
x: 2342
a: 0.00352
b: -0.28097
Rsq: 0.79859
The day's expected price: 2851.30
Actual price / expected price: 27.24%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 306.98
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 18458.91
Predicted date for today's price: 10-Dec-2015
Days ahead: -369.77
Daily price rank: 56
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00351686389202846++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.28096579398529+%29
December 12, 2016, 05:29:13 PM
Can we get another update?
November 01, 2016, 11:28:21 AM
So even the BFX hack did not bring us below -1.5. Hope we will not see any level below it again (in this cycle)
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
Interesting! Thank you for the update
So even the BFX hack did not bring us below -1.5. Hope we will not see any level below it again (in this cycle)
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
Thanks for the update. Could you post a zoomed-out view of the exponential line? I want to see where the current line places the price in 2020 or 2025.
So even the BFX hack did not bring us below -1.5. Hope we will not see any level below it again (in this cycle)
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
We are at about -1.35 now, and broke the resistance level at -1.4. The next target is -1.3 (the pre BFX hack level), now at $732; and the previous peak at -1.1, now at $894. There is no obvious resistance level beyond -1.1
The ATH $1126 is currently -0.87
Date: 28-Oct-2016
BETI -1.368
VWAP: 684.53
x: 2295
a: 0.00359
b: -0.33497
Rsq: 0.79921
The day's expected price: 2687.46
Actual price / expected price: 25.47%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 289.34
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 17398.26
Predicted date for today's price: 12-Oct-2015
Days ahead: -381.31
Daily price rank: 79
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00358663255255302++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.334969405265711+%29
A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic. You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve. The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
yes, but we aren't anywhere near market saturation.
the only reason a permanent exponential model is unrealistic, is because at some point you run out of room to grow. Bitcoin has a lot of room left to grow, so until we start getting close to the limit, an exponential model s perfectly fine.
in fact a logistic curve is nothing more than an exponential model that is curved off at the top. Since we're not anywhere near the top yet, these are identical for now and the foreseeable future.
Yes, let's start worrying about the plateau when bitcoin has a 2 trillion dollar market cap.
A permanent exponential growth model is unrealistic. You should be fitting this data to a logistic curve. The logistic model has at least two parameters more than the naive exponential model has,
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
http://sharpstatistics.co.uk/excel/non-linear-curve-fitting-in-exce/
i.e. the asymptote and the time of the inflection.* Not only does the actual math have more degrees of freedom than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Horatio; but the fitting requires educated guesses at the parameters before you can begin. Bitcoin's volatility makes that extremely difficult.
From Wikipedia:
Carlota Perez used a logistic curve to illustrate the long (Kondratiev) business cycle with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build out as synergy and the completion as maturity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
*The curve on the sharpstatistics web page is drawn on a linear chart.
yes, but we aren't anywhere near market saturation.
the only reason a permanent exponential model is unrealistic, is because at some point you run out of room to grow. Bitcoin has a lot of room left to grow, so until we start getting close to the limit, an exponential model s perfectly fine.
in fact a logistic curve is nothing more than an exponential model that is curved off at the top. Since we're not anywhere near the top yet, these are identical for now and the foreseeable future.
The logistic curve models an idealization of the fact that nothing grows forever. Every market matures, or approaches saturation. The logistic curve probably has little practical use for predicting price, but expecting unbounded exponential increase is even less realistic.
- -
I thought the Excel method I linked to in the previous post looked like the simplest way to curve-fit data on the logistic.
- -
I thought the Excel method I linked to in the previous post looked like the simplest way to curve-fit data on the logistic.
It's been a long time since I last done such exercises (2013-14). But until then, the logistic just was the best fit to the prices. As we know, the best fit is the one with least average deviation from the dataset. Many were voicing their opinions then as well as now, supporting some other trendline model. I'd like to see the R^2 values to support the opinions.
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