most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price
Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 25. (Read 110414 times)
I also got about $25K for 1.5 by just eyballing/guesstimating, but not sure how to actually calculate it.
The formula in wolfram's does not contain a simple explanation how you can plug in the expected value (0, 1 or 1.5).
Maybe I am just looking at a wrong formula?
I guess, everyone want's to be there during the supra-exponential phase, but not stay too long during the inevitable deep correction (if you are into trading at all).
Intuitively, $20-25K (if during supra-exponential phase) is a good place to exit (for a while).
The formula in wolfram's does not contain a simple explanation how you can plug in the expected value (0, 1 or 1.5).
Maybe I am just looking at a wrong formula?
I guess, everyone want's to be there during the supra-exponential phase, but not stay too long during the inevitable deep correction (if you are into trading at all).
Intuitively, $20-25K (if during supra-exponential phase) is a good place to exit (for a while).
If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread...
will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak.
please keep updating more regular.... this is great, thanks. I will donate!
+1
I was just in the progress of constructing my own charts for timing the top as well. It turns it is much more time consuming than I initially thought
. Why the hell would I even need to do that if we have such quality thread. Jl2012 consider those mBTCs flying your way if we go above +1.5. It seems there is some resistance at -0.25 and 0.00. Afterwards this bull should be going with flying colors. Assuming it takes at least another two months min. tho reach the top it gives us another 20% on top of todays expected price. Hitting ATH would mean 33k USD, a little more conservative +1.5 would give us 25K USD.
If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread...
will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak.
please keep updating more regular.... this is great, thanks. I will donate!
If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
Date: 10-Aug-2017
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 3394.76
x: 2581
a: 0.00331
b: -0.11038
Rsq: 0.81553
The day's expected price: 4561.38
Actual price / expected price: 74.42%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 491.09
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 29529.75
Predicted date for today's price: 12-May-2017
Days ahead: -89.32
Daily price rank: 2
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330715045894681++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.110375086243728+%29
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 3394.76
x: 2581
a: 0.00331
b: -0.11038
Rsq: 0.81553
The day's expected price: 4561.38
Actual price / expected price: 74.42%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 491.09
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 29529.75
Predicted date for today's price: 12-May-2017
Days ahead: -89.32
Daily price rank: 2
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330715045894681++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.110375086243728+%29
Any chance of an update? Love your work 
Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.
You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?
TIA
You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?
TIA
Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference
Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.
For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)
Oh how I dreamed of today back then!
You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway
Something seems wrong with your chart here. According to the OP chart the third bump doesn't break the exponential trend line, but in this case it does. What am I missing?
Date: 11-Jun-2017
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 2911.89
x: 2521
a: 0.00333
b: -0.13332
Rsq: 0.80788
The day's expected price: 3912.45
Actual price / expected price: 74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 25328.64
Predicted date for today's price: 14-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -88.59
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
Tracking above the exponential trend line hasn't happened for years, but i think we actually break above trend for a few weeks in the coming months, then pull back before having a huge run up to a record high above trend deviation of +2.0.... within a year.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 2911.89
x: 2521
a: 0.00333
b: -0.13332
Rsq: 0.80788
The day's expected price: 3912.45
Actual price / expected price: 74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 25328.64
Predicted date for today's price: 14-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -88.59
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
Tracking above the exponential trend line hasn't happened for years, but i think we actually break above trend for a few weeks in the coming months, then pull back before having a huge run up to a record high above trend deviation of +2.0.... within a year.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29
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Activity: 660
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Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
Date: 11-Jun-2017
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 2911.89
x: 2521
a: 0.00333
b: -0.13332
Rsq: 0.80788
The day's expected price: 3912.45
Actual price / expected price: 74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 25328.64
Predicted date for today's price: 14-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -88.59
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29
BETI: -0.295
VWAP: 2911.89
x: 2521
a: 0.00333
b: -0.13332
Rsq: 0.80788
The day's expected price: 3912.45
Actual price / expected price: 74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 25328.64
Predicted date for today's price: 14-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -88.59
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29
Date: 6-Jun-2017
BETI: -0.314
VWAP: 2818.78
x: 2516
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13460
Rsq: 0.80712
The day's expected price: 3857.54
Actual price / expected price: 73.07%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 415.31
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24973.20
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -94.05
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333560500258656++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.134596607359385+%29
BETI: -0.314
VWAP: 2818.78
x: 2516
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13460
Rsq: 0.80712
The day's expected price: 3857.54
Actual price / expected price: 73.07%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 415.31
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24973.20
Predicted date for today's price: 3-Mar-2017
Days ahead: -94.05
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333560500258656++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.134596607359385+%29
As predicted, we had some support around -0.5. Today is over -0.5 again.
The next major resistance is -0.25 at $2956, then 0 at $3796.
Date: 31-May-2017
BETI: -0.517
VWAP: 2264.38
x: 2510
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13655
Rsq: 0.80627
The day's expected price: 3795.88
Actual price / expected price: 59.65%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 408.67
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24573.99
Predicted date for today's price: 27-Dec-2016
Days ahead: -154.77
Daily price rank: 4
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333793840260933++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.136554694291936+%29
BETI: -0.517
VWAP: 2264.38
x: 2510
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13655
Rsq: 0.80627
The day's expected price: 3795.88
Actual price / expected price: 59.65%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 408.67
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24573.99
Predicted date for today's price: 27-Dec-2016
Days ahead: -154.77
Daily price rank: 4
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333793840260933++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.136554694291936+%29
I was looking at my own exponential chart and noticed that we aren't relatively that far from the expected price surpassing $4000. If and when the actual Bitcoin price ever gets back above the mean on this chart, well, that'll be a *huge* event.
Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.
You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?
TIA
You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?
TIA
Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference
Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.
For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)
Oh how I dreamed of today back then!
You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway
http://i.imgur.com/pvUyVBz.png
Thanks for putting it together in any case.
I like it as a record of how the line of best fit has changed. As you say, it doesn't change much and it hardly ever points down, and clearly as time passes it will tend to hug the best fit ever more closely - but in retrospect its tangent can be seen as a loose proxy for the market's 'exuberance', irrational or otherwise. Thanks again for your work.
Date: 25-May-2017
BETI: -0.395
VWAP: 2518.72
x: 2504
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13908
Rsq: 0.80550
The day's expected price: 3739.37
Actual price / expected price: 67.36%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 402.59
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24208.16
Predicted date for today's price: 26-Jan-2017
Days ahead: -118.28
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334095545799238++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139080606975029+%29
BETI: -0.395
VWAP: 2518.72
x: 2504
a: 0.00334
b: -0.13908
Rsq: 0.80550
The day's expected price: 3739.37
Actual price / expected price: 67.36%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 402.59
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 24208.16
Predicted date for today's price: 26-Jan-2017
Days ahead: -118.28
Daily price rank: 1
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334095545799238++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139080606975029+%29
hi SSS plan sounds reasonable for a person who does not like taking risks which i am not I guess what I am trying to figure out at what price i want to start raking and what kind of percentage, calculating ones percentage of portfolio makes sense for a person who has outstanding wealth which again i do not . Thanks for the link, good insights in there.
I guess what I am trying to figure out at what price i want to start raking and what kind of percentage, calculating ones percentage of portfolio makes sense for a person who has outstanding wealth which again i do not . Thanks for the link, good insights in there. Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.
I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??
Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth" invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.
I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??
Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth"
invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sss-a-sane-and-simple-bitcoin-savings-plan-345065
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