Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 35. (Read 110414 times)
Hurrah! The -1.9 resistance is broken. Although not for long. So the time for $307 has not come yet
Date: 6-Jul-2015
VWAP: 273.28
x: 1815
a: 0.00473
b: -1.10763
Rsq: 0.84992
The day's expected price: 1775.53
Actual price / expected price: 15.39%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.871
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 191.16
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11494.51
Predicted date for today's price: 5-Jun-2014
Days ahead: -395.42
Daily price rank: 440
(See OP for explanation)
VWAP: 273.28
x: 1815
a: 0.00473
b: -1.10763
Rsq: 0.84992
The day's expected price: 1775.53
Actual price / expected price: 15.39%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.871
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 191.16
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11494.51
Predicted date for today's price: 5-Jun-2014
Days ahead: -395.42
Daily price rank: 440
(See OP for explanation)
Excellent and informative thread.
Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?
I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)
Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?
I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)
Actually the expected price from the link is not very accurate. It is overestimated.
Excellent and informative thread.
Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?
I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)
Do you have a formula for calculating (excuse my terminology!) the given log value of the day?
I looked through the thread, but the only wolfram alpha links i clicked on give me the expected trend line price.. and not the log value above or below this line.
(I hope that makes sense!)
Good job, added to my watchlist thx!
Interesting thread, cheers man!
0 today is $1770
it seems -1.9 ($264) is an important resistance level
the next important one may be -1.75 ($307)
-1.95 ($252) is the first support level
bottom is -2.05 ($228)
We are at the halfway of the year
Date: 30-Jun-2015
VWAP: 262.39
x: 1809
a: 0.00475
b: -1.12042
Rsq: 0.85123
The day's expected price: 1770.33
Actual price / expected price: 14.82%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.909
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 190.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11460.89
Predicted date for today's price: 24-May-2014
Days ahead: -401.61
Daily price rank: 450
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00475364463109772++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.12042079018883+%29
Date: 30-Jun-2015
VWAP: 262.39
x: 1809
a: 0.00475
b: -1.12042
Rsq: 0.85123
The day's expected price: 1770.33
Actual price / expected price: 14.82%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.909
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 190.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11460.89
Predicted date for today's price: 24-May-2014
Days ahead: -401.61
Daily price rank: 450
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00475364463109772++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.12042079018883+%29
To return to zero on the trend line where would the price need to be today?
bump for one of my favs
It definitely looks like the bottom is behind us, objectively speaking. There have been so many false hopes tho over the past year and a half that nobody can be sure.
-1.95 is a 2-month high. It was the support in Feb and Mar. Now it seems become a resistance?
It's up to -1.951
Date: 17-Jun-2015
VWAP: 250.32
x: 1796
a: 0.00480
b: -1.14905
Rsq: 0.85431
The day's expected price: 1761.55
Actual price / expected price: 14.21%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.951
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 189.65
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11404.06
Predicted date for today's price: 6-May-2014
Days ahead: -406.40
Daily price rank: 464
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00480122784177374++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.14905367401203+%29
Date: 17-Jun-2015
VWAP: 250.32
x: 1796
a: 0.00480
b: -1.14905
Rsq: 0.85431
The day's expected price: 1761.55
Actual price / expected price: 14.21%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.951
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 189.65
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11404.06
Predicted date for today's price: 6-May-2014
Days ahead: -406.40
Daily price rank: 464
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00480122784177374++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.14905367401203+%29
After the next bull market, will there be an even longer downtrend? I can see why volatility measured in percentage terms should decrease, but why should the downtrends should last longer and longer periods of time?
Here is x2.5 time scaling
A certain similarity is clearly apparent, remains to be seen whether it's also predictive.
(If so, $88,000 in 2020 here we come!
)
Here is x2.5 time scaling
This is a fun thread. Thanks for posting. Looks like we might double bottom on your chart and then go up from there.
It is not difficult to see that -1.75 is a major resistant (now $304). If we would follow the 2011-12 pattern, breaking -1.75 would lead us to the next resistant level of -1.5 to -1.25 (now $390-$500)
If you do the 1:2.5 time scaling as well, the slide to the previous major bottom and the situation now look somewhat similar
Well I am not completely joking. The maturity brings inertia.
The influx of VC money to the Bitcoinsphere is almost out-of-whack with the current valuation of the coin. A few explanations come to mind (none to all of them may be correct):
- VC's are stupid
- the gov/banks are behind all of it and want to destroy the coin, and it's not a big deal how many dollars they must create to accomplish it
- the above, except they are not necessary up to killing it, just gaining a stranglehold as they did with gold and morphed it into fiat in a century-long process in 1871-1971
- The valuation is low and the people in-the-know see a good chance of reigniting the mania, gaining their investments back nicely
- The valuation is kept low by hook and crook, the infrastructure is being built, and also massive amounts of physical bitcoins acquired by the key players in the period of public insecurity
If I had this information and had cash, diversifying into bitcoins now woudl be a prudent action. Don't buy too much, and please remember to think through the storage arrangements, preferably diversifying that as well if the sum is non-trivial.
It's quite stable, around -2.0
>snip images<
>snip images<
thanks for an update. scraping the bottom?
Previous downtrend was reversed with a V, but this time it looks different so far.
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