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Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 33. (Read 110400 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.

What would be the minimum $ required to invest in "income producing assets"?

What assets would be good to invest in?

How would you even start investing in those assets, as someone who is young and has never invested in anything but bitcoin before?

How do i protect myself from financial collapse with those assets, in case the dollar/euro/financial system breaks down? (Other than the % of money still in bitcoin that isn't divested?).
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
Expecting/imaginating 10 000$, that is so ludicrous. Dont get me wrong, that would be amazing, but i can't imagine a market cap of 150 billions of dollars anytime soon. That would be so much power, this would be catastrophic. Governments would panics.

Economic power is like Technology, if it goes up too fast, other things crash.

I'm not expecting $10,000. I'm just saying that it's within the realm of possibility based on the trendline:

Quote
Date:    25-Oct-2015
VWAP:    289.30
x:    1926
a:    0.00436
b:    -0.87240
Rsq:    0.82459
The day's expected price:    1838.59
Actual price / expected price:   15.74%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.849
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11902.78
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2014
Days ahead:    -424.56
Daily price rank:    437

Hitting $10,000 wouldn't even be be making a new high. It is totally feasible.

legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1068
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.

Expecting/imaginating 10 000$, that is so ludicrous. Dont get me wrong, that would be amazing, but i can't imagine a market cap of 150 billions of dollars anytime soon. That would be so much power, this would be catastrophic. Governments would panics.

Economic power is like Technology, if it goes up too fast, other things crash.
legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.

You don't sell to buy and hold fiat, you sell to buy income producing assets. That is the key, target your SSS strategy so that by the time you've sold half of your BTC, you have been able to buy enough income to live on. You still get to enjoy the ride up if it continues, but also have established security.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.      

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.

There may be a "bubble" to $800 or $1500, but if this exponential trend is accurate and we retest old highs, then we could very well be going for $10,000 per bitcoin within the next two years.

We all want to maximize gains, but honestly, we're all probably better off following SSS. None of us will perfectly buy and sell all the way to $10,000.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.


To be honest I am not really interested in increasing my fiat position, i'm more interested in increasing my bitcoin position, therefore, selling and buying back at the right moment is crucial. Of course I know i can never get the absolute top and absolute bottom, but trying to get at least a reasonable gain for the risk

I just don't trust the dollar and euro (or the financial system as a whole) enough to rely on it. The vast majority of my money is in bitcoin, another part is in silver, and only a fraction is in fiat.

Risky? Maybe, but I consider the risk of leaving it in fiat to be much higher.

I will take your advice, and even 1/2 seems reasonable enough. It might not be optimal, but at least it's a large profit and a moderate risk.     

Of course I will not sell when I anticipate another bubble, such as now.

Thanks for your insight.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
If
a) The pattern is same as in 2011,
b) But 4 times slower,
We will must have rally pretty soon. Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.





interesting find, let's see if this holds true, if it does, i assume next target would be -0.5 (probably around $5000 when that happens)  and 1.5 (probably about $50000 when that happens, yikes) after that?

Or do you think the pattern breaks off there?

If so, why?

 
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?

Heh that's the trickier part.

In my SSS link I actually advise against trying to time the peaks at all and rather sell at predetermined price increases, and not buy back.

Open Bitcoincharts.com and study all the bubbles - the low is typically quite much lower than the peak, in case of major peaks that have first made an ATH (2011/6, 2013/4, 2013/12) it has always been about 20% of the peak. Since in my opinion it is realistic to sell on average at 60% of the peak price in these cases, you can still set the bid at 1/2, even 1/3 of your sell price and historically it will still hit.

If the bubble fails to make a new ATH during its course, the price downside is less.

As is the topic of the thread, we are way behind the trend so a superbubble similar to the first one in 2013 is easily possible. Here the trader (not SSS investor) does well by waiting until a weekly red candle comes, and sells only the following week. Selling prematurely is the greatest danger here.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
What happened to the longer term charts? We're still a ways down in the long term. Are people now calling for a triple bottom then up? Wink




I hope this chart still holds true, but i have my doubts.

according to that chart we SHOULD be around $10000 or so right now if i'm not mistaken, and if the pattern in that chart holds true the next bubble could take us up to something like $30000
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?
130$ lol
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley

when do you recommend to buy back after this happens?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Remember to sell when it goes up 100% a week, the final day is 30% per day. We are not yet there but things can evolve quickly. When this happens, it is a local peak, has been many times before and is now Smiley
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
If we break that, things will get wild.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
Since last update, it grew from -1.95 to -1.85. The -1.75 resistance is now at about $320

It hits 310 and is approaching the major resistance of -1.75
legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
What happened to the longer term charts? We're still a ways down in the long term. Are people now calling for a triple bottom then up? Wink


legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
Since last update, it grew from -1.95 to -1.85. The -1.75 resistance is now at about $320

legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
Date:    25-Oct-2015
VWAP:    289.30
x:    1926
a:    0.00436
b:    -0.87240
Rsq:    0.82459
The day's expected price:    1838.59
Actual price / expected price:   15.74%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.849
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11902.78
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2014
Days ahead:    -424.56
Daily price rank:    437
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.0043557396821397++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.872400133608698+%29   
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111
So... what is the price expected for you system? (for today) Is should be higher?

$1832.34
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
So... what is the price expected for you system? (for today) Is should be higher?
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1111

Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December
No. Smiley 1826.21 is today's expected price. While we are talking about half-year later.

EDIT: i.e. 672 * e^(0.00445*(365/2))
P.S. I'd also like to thank you for your job. This is my favorite thread and I'm always in anticipation of fresh updates.

It will be lower than $1500 since the slope is dropping every day.

I will update more frequently when the price is moving
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