Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis - page 36. (Read 110414 times)
It's quite stable, around -2.0
Update
Date: 25-May-2015
VWAP: 236.29
x: 1773
a: 0.00489
b: -1.20180
Rsq: 0.86034
The day's expected price: 1750.69
Actual price / expected price: 13.50%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -2.003
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 188.48
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11333.73
Predicted date for today's price: 10-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -409.57
Daily price rank: 504
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00488977408741423++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.2018042295349+%29
Date: 25-May-2015
VWAP: 236.29
x: 1773
a: 0.00489
b: -1.20180
Rsq: 0.86034
The day's expected price: 1750.69
Actual price / expected price: 13.50%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -2.003
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 188.48
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11333.73
Predicted date for today's price: 10-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -409.57
Daily price rank: 504
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00488977408741423++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.2018042295349+%29
It failed to break -1.75 for the second time, so the first target of recovery is the break -1.75, which is about $300 now.
update:
Date: 23-Apr-2015
VWAP: 234.47
x: 1741
a: 0.00502
b: -1.27545
Rsq: 0.86859
The day's expected price: 1730.63
Actual price / expected price: 13.55%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.999
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 186.32
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11203.86
Predicted date for today's price: 20-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -398.56
Daily price rank: 498
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00501533052855192++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.27545006307597+%29
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 2-Feb-2015
Date: 23-Apr-2015
VWAP: 234.47
x: 1741
a: 0.00502
b: -1.27545
Rsq: 0.86859
The day's expected price: 1730.63
Actual price / expected price: 13.55%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.999
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 186.32
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 11203.86
Predicted date for today's price: 20-Mar-2014
Days ahead: -398.56
Daily price rank: 498
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00501533052855192++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.27545006307597+%29
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 2-Feb-2015
Im curious about update now.
This is my favourite (most useful?) thread on the speculation forum btw
.
This is my favourite (most useful?) thread on the speculation forum btw
. 
It may also depend on what happens at the stock markets. At the last crossroads (marked in the blue in the chart) the stocks were still not ready for the dump, but if we wait a month more that may be another red point!
Really looking good your last post, jl2012! It really feels like the previous attempts to break the downtrend in May 2014 and maybe November 2014 just didn't 'work out'. I think this is it. The rocket.
What happen next?
Red: up
Blue: down
Purple: double bottom then up?
Since 2015:
Date: 16-Mar-2015
VWAP: 290.78
x: 1703
a: 0.00517
b: -1.36231
Rsq: 0.87788
The day's expected price: 1696.02
Actual price / expected price: 17.14%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.763
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 182.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10979.78
Predicted date for today's price: 8-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -341.34
Daily price rank: 427
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00516637853917161++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.36230541558996+%29
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 1-Jan-2015
Red: up
Blue: down
Purple: double bottom then up?
Since 2015:
Date: 16-Mar-2015
VWAP: 290.78
x: 1703
a: 0.00517
b: -1.36231
Rsq: 0.87788
The day's expected price: 1696.02
Actual price / expected price: 17.14%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.763
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 182.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10979.78
Predicted date for today's price: 8-Apr-2014
Days ahead: -341.34
Daily price rank: 427
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00516637853917161++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.36230541558996+%29
Predicted date for ATH ($1126): 1-Jan-2015
February 21, 2015, 07:23:05 AM
I would rather see it from a social point of view. Man does not changes his way easily, especially with something so misunderstood like money. It will take time but the seed - a great idea - has been planted.
An idea whose time has come, is unstoppable.
An idea whose time has come, is unstoppable.
February 21, 2015, 07:08:03 AM
I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".
If you take bitcoin as a technology, you don't have to think in 5-10 years timeframe. Technology is fast-paced and so is Bitcoin. This will get lots of people with their guards down, hoping there is plenty of time to buy or sell. But price can triple within weeks and go to one third even faster.
February 20, 2015, 10:43:58 AM
Thanks for the 0.16354143BTC or 40USD donation!
February 18, 2015, 05:48:54 AM
I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".
cannot agree more. There may be some movement to the downside, yet the risk of coming down to say $50 is relatively low in comparison to the possible upside potential. 
February 17, 2015, 05:23:17 AM
I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".
February 16, 2015, 10:05:41 PM
After reaching the -2.149 recent low, we are floating around -1.9 to -2.0
All-time:
Since 2015:
All-time:
Since 2015:
February 16, 2015, 10:01:54 PM
Today is the one-year anniversary of this thread. If you like it, please consider to donate a couple bits.
Date: 16-Feb-2015
VWAP: 235.99
x: 1675
a: 0.00528
b: -1.42439
Rsq: 0.88394
The day's expected price: 1658.60
Actual price / expected price: 14.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.950
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 178.57
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10737.53
Predicted date for today's price: 11-Feb-2014
Days ahead: -369.55
Daily price rank: 439
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00527648848506147++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.42439141368009+%29
Date: 16-Feb-2015
VWAP: 235.99
x: 1675
a: 0.00528
b: -1.42439
Rsq: 0.88394
The day's expected price: 1658.60
Actual price / expected price: 14.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -1.950
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 178.57
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10737.53
Predicted date for today's price: 11-Feb-2014
Days ahead: -369.55
Daily price rank: 439
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00527648848506147++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.42439141368009+%29
February 11, 2015, 09:46:37 AM
Date: 10-Feb-2015
VWAP: 218.61
x: 1669
a: 0.00530
b: -1.43856
Rsq: 0.88548
The day's expected price: 1652.84
Actual price / expected price: 13.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -2.023
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 177.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10700.26
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Jan-2014
Days ahead: -381.55
Daily price rank: 453
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00530186245924665++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.4385580304569+%29
VWAP: 218.61
x: 1669
a: 0.00530
b: -1.43856
Rsq: 0.88548
The day's expected price: 1652.84
Actual price / expected price: 13.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price) -2.023
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 177.95
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 10700.26
Predicted date for today's price: 24-Jan-2014
Days ahead: -381.55
Daily price rank: 453
(See OP for explanation)
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00530186245924665++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.4385580304569+%29
February 11, 2015, 04:38:23 AM
This model implies that we are at or close to a low comparable to that of November 2011.
Relatively the same as my original buy then. Smart guys buy now, at the low point of confidence. And don't buy too much.
To buy 10 million bits now for $2200 is actually smarter than buying one million for $5,000 soon.
February 06, 2015, 01:24:24 PM
Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore. 
True. Still, sometimes I unignore them to get a feeling how troll sentiment is changing.
February 06, 2015, 01:13:07 PM
Inca.. everyone else has him on Ignore.
February 06, 2015, 01:05:46 PM
You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.
1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all.
2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market.
3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year.
4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your BTCullish
What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like textbook penny stock pump&dump, ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US.
Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think?
The chart didn't show you a rebound from 160 to 310 last month. Only a few days ago it was showing you the price was imminently back to 160, yet here we are levitating at 220.
Despite your bluster about the price not being 'pumpable' it takes less than 10,000 people buying monthly like me to take all mining supply at these prices. Next year it will be just 5000. Ignoring small fry like you and whales of course.
The price jumped from 160 to 310 in days, just as it moved from 275 to 480 in a heartbeat.
Anyway, you keep betting on the price dropping to zero and the rest of us will wait for you to quietly find something else to play with.
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