Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 2. (Read 2137 times)

Well, this is embarrassing, and thank you PSG for not making it worse, so in short, I forgot to put the bets! 

Now, to keep the results of the experiment, I ran to:
https://www.oddsportal.com/football/
and got all the under 1.5 odds at SP before the match started, and did the simulation:
If PSG had won, I would have really punched myself, it would have been again a 10 win for the multi



Results for the unplayed round:

Round 12
- Individual bets balance +1.16
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 12 rounds and 112 games

- Individual bets balance +6.14
- Multiplier balance +24.58


This is the biggest downside to this strategy, you can miss one round that would have been profitable and everything would look completely different.

Bookie's margin is different from RTP, there is no guarantee for a margin.

I can give you an example since I'm more in horse racing, a year or two before the pandemic there was an unusual day at Ascot when favorites won one after the other, it didn't matter the odds even in races with 14 horses the favorite won, the estimate is that bookies lost millions in it since at the end of the 3rd day everyone was betting on the favorite , odds were crashing down from 2.0 to 1.2 or 1.3 but people won, so there was barely any loss. The same happened with Dettori at Santa Anita, the guy won 6 races the same day, and by his 4rth race, everyone was betting on him, that the bookies couldn't keep up, dropping him from 12:1 to 5:1 and still losing.

So, the bookie can't really set a margin if the team wins and wins and wins,  and nobody bets on the losing side, the bets go to 1.01 and that's it, they close it even before the race or match is done because they would simply not afford to pay a penny more.

Furthermore, even let's say the bookie has a margin of 10%, it really doesn't matter to the odds I'm playing, since my math is after his supposed take, so I'm playing with the ods I get not with their margin, so unlike slots for example, I'm doing the math starting with 100% after RTP.

TLDR: yup, it's different.

Back to the experiment I'm not even going to care about the games during the week, common, screw them, play in the weekend like every normal nation1

Ok, if we are talking about pure numbers: we can take any game -> take the bookmaker's odds for all outcomes -> calculate the bookmaker's margin. It will be in favor of the bookmaker everywhere, right? Your point is that you believe that although the bookmaker takes its margin in general, the odds for outcomes where the favorite wins are incorrect (on average) and here the player has an advantage?

As for my winnings, there are big odds (x91, x123), so a much larger number of bets is needed to talk about average figures.

I just hate when this happens, I always say I will update the results and then I forget and I need to make another 2 in 1 update cause I was too lazy to post results last week.

So, again a update for both rounds 10 and 11

Round 10 had one loss Citttttyyyyy !!!!!!, 7 wins
- Individual bets balance +2.2
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 11 had 3 losses, 4 wins, I think this was the worst one in the experiment
- Individual bets balance -1.34
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 11 rounds and 104 games

- Individual bets balance +4.98
- Percentage win 4.74%

- Multiplier balance +25.58
- Percentage win 233%

Still positive!

When it happens over a long period of time and it's not happening in a time-based cycle, as it involves ups and downs of different values it becomes much of a pattern rather than guessing, again it doesn't have to be a win very year, you play the long game , just as with stocks.


I don't believe in a consensus based on feelings, I believe in hard numbers, and even if this experiment will not convince anyone as it might looked as a freak event, I'm happy to keep it going next year too.
Anyhow, congratulations on the wins, you see that it can be done despite the bookie margin?


Day 10


Shitty games, normally I would stay away from every single one of them apart maybe the two from La Liga, it's like a reunion of teams that always like to screw you over.

Yes, of course I remember that table and I expressed my thoughts about it (retrospective analysis does not give any idea of ​​what will happen in the future).
There is a lot of evidence and I do not even see the point in looking for specific/fresh experiments because it seems that there is a consensus that the bookmaker always takes his margin, right?
Distortions in quotes are a relatively common occurrence, but over time they all level out. That is why I am surprised that you are in the black.
In any case, I am happy to continue to follow your experiment and I appreciate that you are conducting it consistently.

P.S. In fact, I am also interested because according to my calculations I am in the black (on multi-bets). This should not be  One difference is that I make them up not only from small coefficients.

This is the thing, why should the results be abnormal?

People claim that this kind of betting doesn't work all day, as seen in this thread but nobody has done any realistic experiment on it to actually prove it. If you remember I posted a table about the results of the top teams in the individual leagues and with them, you would have always won, a small percentage but still won if you would have consistently bet on them.

So at this point, we should start separating guts and feelings from, well, actual results!
It might be that at the end I will be in red, also possible to be further profitable but as I said that's the point of it, to have some data with which to back up claims of a strategy working or not working.

The simplicity of the system is good, especially for experiments, but I think from the point of view of a bettor, so although I rely mainly only on plane odds (I also strive for blind betting), I still do analysis too.
Your profit for this round is 1.15. If you take into account the loss on the multi-bet, then 0.15.
In fact, I'm surprised that you are not in the minus   You have already played a large enough number of bets for this to look abnormal.

That's the beauty of this system, I don't need to actually analyze any of the games, heck I don't even need to see what matches and what teams I need to bet, I see an odd under 1.5 I place the bet, in terms of being easy is leading by a far margin, the results are not there to encourage such system but still it's not losing money.

I would need to update the stats but will do that later on as I was again doing stupid things and I didn't actually place the individual bets, so I will need to add the loss and the wins  manually by checking the multi ticket.


Well, this is the point of the whole topic and experiment, so rather than talking about the possibilities of it achieving something or doing we now have the stats, and right now, or better saying before this round it carried a 4% return, not beating Bitcoin but still beating inflation   

The whole point is to look for odds where bookmakers are wrong in their estimates (this is not the topic of this thread, here is another experiment) and bet on such outcomes. For example, yesterday after Tottenham scored the second goal, their odds were estimated at 1.95. To put it mildly, a strange assessment in conditions when the team is leading with a 2-goal advantage and is playing better (certainly not worse). Many who made a bet at that moment made an easy +95%.

Betting on matches with a coefficient of 1.5 does not by itself make the game a winning one. Since this coefficient implies that the probability of winning is quite high and above 50% (and to be precise, this is 66.67% of the probability of winning from the bookmaker's point of view). Therefore, in the case of a tedious forecast, you will lose your entire bet, and if you win, you will receive only 50% of your bet amount. And with each loss, you will need to win 2 times to restore the bankroll and win 3 times to make a profit.
It's very difficult. That is, to get even a relatively small profit, the ratio between successful and unsuccessful bets should be 3:1. The author of this technique must have outstanding analytical skills.

Good round, 7 out of 8 bets played and overall you are in the black at the end of this round if you take only single bets.
Who would have thought that the multi-bet would be burned by the result of the City - Tottenham game (certainly not me, since I added this outcome to my multi-bet with a handicap of -1). It's scary to imagine how many bettors lost money today betting on City or City Double Chance, arguing "well, City can't lose 5 games in a row".

Just in time for Friday, I was going to miss it again, 8 matches:



Again, annoying stuff, there is one match on the ticket at 1.49 Manchester, and there are two matches I didn't choose because they were 1.51, Monaco against Brest, so there is a bit of room for error here, if you would place a bet now Monaco wouldn't be counted, but if the bets change in 2 hours it might, so probably SP betting assuming you run a bot that throws bets exactly at kick-off would be a bit more accurate. Anyhow , it is what it is and despite everything, after 10 we're going to be positive most likely, I don't see 5 losing matches on that ticket!

So, update for both rounds 8 and 9 as promised

Round 8 had one loss Monaco d'oh, 7 wins
- Individual bets balance +1
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 9 had 3 losses, 8 wins
- Individual bets balance -0.28
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 9 rounds and 89 games

- Individual bets balance +4.12
- Percentage win 4.62%

- Multiplier balance +27.58
- Percentage win 306%

Still positive! 

Late Friday and I think that this time I really missed a few games, I will have to do a bit of extra work to check whatever games were played today, also I didn't have time to update the previous results, and a lot more. I thought this thing is not time consuming but there are times when you can't spare a second. Anyhow, 11 games, I will have to reconstruct the individual matches from the SP bets but I managed to place the multi at 22 to 1.



I will update both the curnet results and the title during weekend before I manage to lose track of it completely.

Statistically more reliable, the result is achieved with a large number of bets. That is, to come to the "expected" result (bettor's loss) it is only necessary to make as many bets as possible. To try to win, you need to take advantage of high volatility and make a small number of bets, that is, use multi-bets with huge odds. I chose this approach, but I don't mind looking at other people's experiments.

Sport bets is becoming something else and I have been contemplating that most of these matches are fixed matches and it's just funny that nobody is talking about this. We keep losing bets everyday due to matches that is well sure it's going to end end now becoming an horrible nightmare. Even some few matches I have seen today looks like they are being manipulated by the both team. Arsenal losing there match today is something I keep thinking about and others matches too that could have given gamblers huge winnings. The lose in gambling can be huge if we don't seat down and make proper plans considering risk management so that we don't keep complaining.

And with higher ROI comes higher risk and lower chances of actual winning, and int he end you will be close to the same thing as betting with lower odds that win most of the time but get drowned by one or two eventual losses. Speaking of losses, the round has not even begun in earnest and the multiplier is a loss from the first game, Monaco losing 1-0 yesterday, I wasn't even aware of that, just saw my bet as lost, lol. So, probably this round will suck big time with such a start current profit can tank only 3 loses before it gets red!

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

Exactly why the experiment runs for the entire year for all leagues!


Round 7, barely made it in time otherwise I would have had to pick up the results from the archive again, and again the matches look like not something you would wage on, way too many very low odds, making this look more like under 1.3 than 1.5. I said it the last time the matches were a bad pick and they all turned good so, so god knows how this one will play, as usual zero faith in it and I just keep this going for the fun of it and the end result, but for now we have a 6.95 multi and 2.23 for individual bets, less than 33% even if all win.