Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 2. (Read 1077 times)
This is what I do almost at every New beginning of the season i try to select matches with relatively low odd expecially when the team is at home playing an average team with a big odd sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as time processed I discovered that odd is just a number any team can win a game irrespective of the odd given to them for I have seen severally where team with bigger odd number still come to win the team with a lower odd so it this case I don't think there is any need trying to do some experiment is better to go ahead a play which ever team you are move to play if you win you win if you loss you loss that's how bet works for there is no way you can be winning all the time at same time losing all the time.
Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion
8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:
I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.
But, there is fun also in doing it!
Really bad picks today in my opinion
8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:
Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.
I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.
But, there is fun also in doing it!
Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.
Influence of luck indeed as even how good you assess and analyze the potential outcome if luck is not in your side it will ruined your combination, though it's still good to have that kind of startegy as you have basis to whatever bets you take, from that point of view, you can simply quit and accept your defeats and not to become aggressive and add more deposit to re-try your entry and lose more money.
More on how you do your analysis and how you manage both your time and finances while executing your plan strategy.
Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.
The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake
)Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.
It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?
The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max
Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.
Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?
The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake
)- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max
Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.
Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1
The trouble is you're only making small amounts, say 10% of the total you are risking, each time you bet. However you stand to lose 100% of your bet if you lose. Unless you think you can beat the analytics of the bookmaker, those companies that make hundreds of millions a year profit from accurately predicting outcomes over the long term, then there it sounds appealing but it really is not. Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.
The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.
If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits. I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.
I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.
I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions. I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.
~
Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?
The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!
There are even variations of those one pound bet
- playing the martingale on teams, again taking advantage of the odds increasing in case you lose (wouldn't recommend)
- in horse racing going for a jockey trainer's age of the horse for example betting on Haggas and his horses on all weather is right now at -113 but still positive for turf.
- I don't watch NBA so I didn't understand but something about handicaps over +2, again backed by some 3 years of logs
I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.
I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions. 
And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
And I have a rather skeptical view, because I think that professionals in the bookmaker's office calculate the odds better than ordinary bettors, and it is difficult to beat them. And if someone manages to do this constantly, then the bookmaker will begin to behave dishonestly, constantly walking to the successful betting fan.
I have heard many stories about account blocking, as well as about the fact that the withdrawal of funds was very difficult.
Therefore, you should play only on large, proven bookmakers.
And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
All those factors are important as you can control your emotions once you established your strategy, those kinds of picks most of the time are based with detail information about those teams or squad that will be competing, knowing their capabilities gives you hints that you might use to select which games to bet and what are those parlay that will give you decent opportunity to win, though small odds when putting together and if luck permits then it's a decent benefits.
And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake
)And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.
The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake
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Tree of Liberty went to post at 1/25, this is 1.04 odds, with an official rating of 144, and lost to the single other horse running with a rating of 98.
So, top this
So, top this
I am curious if you are continuing to place bets in low-odds matches, given that you may have started to realize what will happen at the end. Some other members and I think it might end up negative. But if you want to continue experimenting, it's up to you. But I would say that the final result is pretty much obvious.
I want to mention another thing: I have seen a scam accusation thread where the victim said that the casino refused to pay him because he was placing bets on low odds. I don't think Stake is going to do that. If I am not wrong, that platform was rollbit. I didn't follow up on that thread, so I am not sure if that guy was able to withdraw his funds or not. The bottom line is, even if you get success in the experiment, probably it won't work on every sportsbook.
Just as you've said, odds are basically set by the bookies based on the possibility of winning or losing the game which is determined by the current form of both team. In other word odds are as a result of bookies prediction. Football is a game were result can change within the wrinkle of an eye, and the least thought for consideration could become the reality of the day. Selection small odds has no guarantee that you'll be wining the game, but it keeps you in a less risky position for your bets to be won. However i prefer going for small odds than betting on bigs odds because majority of my wins are from small odd selected games out together.
It's quite simple. The games or rather game outcomes that have a higher likelihood of happening usually comes with smaller odds since based on team and statistics the risk on betting on that particular possibility is low relative to an opposite possibility or other possibilities like a draw game. If a very good team plays against a team with very low stats, the betting odds for the good team will be very small when compared to the team that's of a lower winning stats.Similarly you will notice that if both teams are good the odds of getting a draw in that game will be smaller and the difference between a draw and that of any the two teams winning won't be large. As a gambler you have to understand these simple logics because if you bet based on the size of the odds you will likely lose majority of the games you place.
I have come to realize that even low odds are not really safe because it's all risky. If you allow small odds to entice you it would make you lose as an active gambler. There are people that have staked millions on low odds and lost the bet. To me odds are just ideas on which team has the highest potential of winning which is sometimes misleading, instead of just playing by the odds do a deep dive and play according to analysis, this way you can at least try to give yourself a little leverage over the bookmakers
Just as you've said, odds are basically set by the bookies based on the possibility of winning or losing the game which is determined by the current form of both team. In other word odds are as a result of bookies prediction. Football is a game were result can change within the wrinkle of an eye, and the least thought for consideration could become the reality of the day. Selection small odds has no guarantee that you'll be wining the game, but it keeps you in a less risky position for your bets to be won. However i prefer going for small odds than betting on bigs odds because majority of my wins are from small odd selected games out together.
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