Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 2.

stompix

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Quote from: KTChampions on November 25, 2024, 12:08:33 PM

Your profit for this round is 1.15. If you take into account the loss on the multi-bet, then 0.15.
In fact, I'm surprised that you are not in the minus

You have already played a large enough number of bets for this to look abnormal.

This is the thing, why should the results be abnormal?

People claim that this kind of betting doesn't work all day, as seen in this thread but nobody has done any realistic experiment on it to actually prove it. If you remember I posted a table about the results of the top teams in the individual leagues and with them, you would have always won, a small percentage but still won if you would have consistently bet on them.

So at this point, we should start separating guts and feelings from, well, actual results!
It might be that at the end I will be in red, also possible to be further profitable but as I said that's the point of it, to have some data with which to back up claims of a strategy working or not working.

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Quote from: stompix on November 24, 2024, 11:35:41 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on November 23, 2024, 03:47:21 PM

Good round, 7 out of 8 bets played and overall you are in the black at the end of this round if you take only single bets.
Who would have thought that the multi-bet would be burned by the result of the City - Tottenham game (certainly not me, since I added this outcome to my multi-bet with a handicap of -1). It's scary to imagine how many bettors lost money today betting on City or City Double Chance, arguing "well, City can't lose 5 games in a row".

That's the beauty of this system, I don't need to actually analyze any of the games, heck I don't even need to see what matches and what teams I need to bet, I see an odd under 1.5 I place the bet, in terms of being easy is leading by a far margin, the results are not there to encourage such system but still it's not losing money.

I would need to update the stats but will do that later on as I was again doing stupid things and I didn't actually place the individual bets, so I will need to add the loss and the wins manually by checking the multi ticket.

The simplicity of the system is good, especially for experiments, but I think from the point of view of a bettor, so although I rely mainly only on plane odds (I also strive for blind betting), I still do analysis too.
Your profit for this round is 1.15. If you take into account the loss on the multi-bet, then 0.15.
In fact, I'm surprised that you are not in the minus

You have already played a large enough number of bets for this to look abnormal.

stompix

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Quote from: KTChampions on November 23, 2024, 03:47:21 PM

Good round, 7 out of 8 bets played and overall you are in the black at the end of this round if you take only single bets.
Who would have thought that the multi-bet would be burned by the result of the City - Tottenham game (certainly not me, since I added this outcome to my multi-bet with a handicap of -1). It's scary to imagine how many bettors lost money today betting on City or City Double Chance, arguing "well, City can't lose 5 games in a row".

That's the beauty of this system, I don't need to actually analyze any of the games, heck I don't even need to see what matches and what teams I need to bet, I see an odd under 1.5 I place the bet, in terms of being easy is leading by a far margin, the results are not there to encourage such system but still it's not losing money.

I would need to update the stats but will do that later on as I was again doing stupid things and I didn't actually place the individual bets, so I will need to add the loss and the wins manually by checking the multi ticket.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on November 23, 2024, 09:29:48 PM

Therefore, in the case of a tedious forecast, you will lose your entire bet, and if you win, you will receive only 50% of your bet amount. And with each loss, you will need to win 2 times to restore the bankroll and win 3 times to make a profit.
It's very difficult. That is, to get even a relatively small profit, the ratio between successful and unsuccessful bets should be 3:1.

Well, this is the point of the whole topic and experiment, so rather than talking about the possibilities of it achieving something or doing we now have the stats, and right now, or better saying before this round it carried a 4% return, not beating Bitcoin but still beating inflation Cheesy

KTChampions

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on November 23, 2024, 09:29:48 PM

Betting on matches with a coefficient of 1.5 does not by itself make the game a winning one. Since this coefficient implies that the probability of winning is quite high and above 50% (and to be precise, this is 66.67% of the probability of winning from the bookmaker's point of view). Therefore, in the case of a tedious forecast, you will lose your entire bet, and if you win, you will receive only 50% of your bet amount. And with each loss, you will need to win 2 times to restore the bankroll and win 3 times to make a profit.
It's very difficult. That is, to get even a relatively small profit, the ratio between successful and unsuccessful bets should be 3:1. The author of this technique must have outstanding analytical skills.

The whole point is to look for odds where bookmakers are wrong in their estimates (this is not the topic of this thread, here is another experiment) and bet on such outcomes. For example, yesterday after Tottenham scored the second goal, their odds were estimated at 1.95. To put it mildly, a strange assessment in conditions when the team is leading with a 2-goal advantage and is playing better (certainly not worse). Many who made a bet at that moment made an easy +95%.

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Betting on matches with a coefficient of 1.5 does not by itself make the game a winning one. Since this coefficient implies that the probability of winning is quite high and above 50% (and to be precise, this is 66.67% of the probability of winning from the bookmaker's point of view). Therefore, in the case of a tedious forecast, you will lose your entire bet, and if you win, you will receive only 50% of your bet amount. And with each loss, you will need to win 2 times to restore the bankroll and win 3 times to make a profit.
It's very difficult. That is, to get even a relatively small profit, the ratio between successful and unsuccessful bets should be 3:1. The author of this technique must have outstanding analytical skills.

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Quote from: stompix on November 22, 2024, 10:38:43 AM

Just in time for Friday, I was going to miss it again, 8 matches:

Again, annoying stuff, there is one match on the ticket at 1.49 Manchester, and there are two matches I didn't choose because they were 1.51, Monaco against Brest, so there is a bit of room for error here, if you would place a bet now Monaco wouldn't be counted, but if the bets change in 2 hours it might, so probably SP betting assuming you run a bot that throws bets exactly at kick-off would be a bit more accurate. Anyhow , it is what it is and despite everything, after 10 we're going to be positive most likely, I don't see 5 losing matches on that ticket!

Good round, 7 out of 8 bets played and overall you are in the black at the end of this round if you take only single bets.
Who would have thought that the multi-bet would be burned by the result of the City - Tottenham game (certainly not me, since I added this outcome to my multi-bet with a handicap of -1). It's scary to imagine how many bettors lost money today betting on City or City Double Chance, arguing "well, City can't lose 5 games in a row".

stompix

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Just in time for Friday, I was going to miss it again, 8 matches:

Again, annoying stuff, there is one match on the ticket at 1.49 Manchester, and there are two matches I didn't choose because they were 1.51, Monaco against Brest, so there is a bit of room for error here, if you would place a bet now Monaco wouldn't be counted, but if the bets change in 2 hours it might, so probably SP betting assuming you run a bot that throws bets exactly at kick-off would be a bit more accurate. Anyhow , it is what it is and despite everything, after 10 we're going to be positive most likely, I don't see 5 losing matches on that ticket!

stompix

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So, update for both rounds 8 and 9 as promised

Round 8 had one loss Monaco d'oh, 7 wins
- Individual bets balance +1
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 9 had 3 losses, 8 wins
- Individual bets balance -0.28
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 9 rounds and 89 games

- Individual bets balance +4.12
- Percentage win 4.62%

- Multiplier balance +27.58
- Percentage win 306%

Still positive! Grin

stompix

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Late Friday and I think that this time I really missed a few games, I will have to do a bit of extra work to check whatever games were played today, also I didn't have time to update the previous results, and a lot more. I thought this thing is not time consuming but there are times when you can't spare a second. Anyhow, 11 games, I will have to reconstruct the individual matches from the SP bets but I managed to place the multi at 22 to 1.

I will update both the curnet results and the title during weekend before I manage to lose track of it completely.

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Quote from: bitbollo on November 02, 2024, 09:16:28 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 27, 2024, 03:34:56 PM

...

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

Statistically more reliable, the result is achieved with a large number of bets. That is, to come to the "expected" result (bettor's loss) it is only necessary to make as many bets as possible. To try to win, you need to take advantage of high volatility and make a small number of bets, that is, use multi-bets with huge odds. I chose this approach, but I don't mind looking at other people's experiments.

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on August 30, 2024, 12:41:26 PM

Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 07:07:39 AM

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.

Sport bets is becoming something else and I have been contemplating that most of these matches are fixed matches and it's just funny that nobody is talking about this. We keep losing bets everyday due to matches that is well sure it's going to end end now becoming an horrible nightmare. Even some few matches I have seen today looks like they are being manipulated by the both team. Arsenal losing there match today is something I keep thinking about and others matches too that could have given gamblers huge winnings. The lose in gambling can be huge if we don't seat down and make proper plans considering risk management so that we don't keep complaining.

stompix

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Quote from: bitbollo on November 02, 2024, 09:16:28 AM

Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

And with higher ROI comes higher risk and lower chances of actual winning, and int he end you will be close to the same thing as betting with lower odds that win most of the time but get drowned by one or two eventual losses. Speaking of losses, the round has not even begun in earnest and the multiplier is a loss from the first game, Monaco losing 1-0 yesterday, I wasn't even aware of that, just saw my bet as lost, lol. So, probably this round will suck big time with such a start current profit can tank only 3 loses before it gets red!

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Quote from: KTChampions on October 27, 2024, 03:34:56 PM

...

Statistically you will win more or less the same amount in the long term, unless one of the two players is able to be a good gambler!
When we had betting competition in forum these two approaches were always the major part.
Of course to be able to get high odds you must bet against "the market" Roll Eyes

it's not easy at all if you think of it, but each selection has an high ROI ...

stompix

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Quote from: swogerino on October 27, 2024, 01:15:10 PM

It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

Exactly why the experiment runs for the entire year for all leagues!

Round 7, barely made it in time otherwise I would have had to pick up the results from the archive again, and again the matches look like not something you would wage on, way too many very low odds, making this look more like under 1.3 than 1.5. I said it the last time the matches were a bad pick and they all turned good so, so god knows how this one will play, as usual zero faith in it and I just keep this going for the fun of it and the end result, but for now we have a 6.95 multi and 2.23 for individual bets, less than 33% even if all win. Undecided

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Quote from: swogerino on October 27, 2024, 01:15:10 PM

This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

This is literally what I wrote in the post above. Constant small wins are eventually erased by one bad day. That's why I also prefer big odds so that a rare win can erase all unsuccessful bets.
In your huge odds strategy, do you use small odds as components of your multiples or do you go for the big odds straight away?

P.S. stompix Congratulations on a successful round, in fact it was a round where many were seriously surprised by the results, but you turned out to be lucky.

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This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

stompix

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Round 7 is over, 5 matches all wins

The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +1.27
- Multiplier balance +2.05

And the total stats for 7 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +3.40
- Percentage win 5.66%

- Multiplier balance +29.58
- Percentage win 422%

Third multi, this one is obviously quite easy but still, if there are two things that might end up being highlighted by this experiment is that individual betting would be better as rolling sums or wagering requirements as the returns are below interest rates while the multi might be more rewarding for the risks although clearly inconsistent!

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Quote from: stompix on October 26, 2024, 07:56:20 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 25, 2024, 02:58:30 PM

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!
~

Ok! It makes sense to choose a specific type of bet and stick to it throughout the season. In general, you already have quite interesting results (with a significant number of bets, you are still in the black), but perhaps here you should take into account the variability. Let's say a round when you win all 5-7 choices is almost the norm (due to low odds), but such a round does not greatly increase the overall win. But a round where most of the choices are unsuccessful will seriously damage the balance. This can be compared with the deposit graph when a player uses Martingale.

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Quote from: KTChampions on October 25, 2024, 02:58:30 PM

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!

Quote from: alani123 on October 25, 2024, 03:54:54 PM

The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.
Well at least till now the profitability is possible.

To be honest I still doubt it, when I started my bet on this was that it would end in red, and honestly I still don't see how it could be even marginally profitable for someone to keep doing it every week and if the profitability stays under 5% that's basically bank deposit interest! Wink

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The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.

Well at least till now the profitability is possible. I would say most people tend to lose money so already this is. Success. In any case I would say people need to consider the high likelyhood of losing money before holding themselves under different opinion

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 2. (Read 1997 times)