Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4.

stompix

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Quote from: KTChampions on October 08, 2024, 03:53:16 PM

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!

Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!

Quote from: nelson4lov on October 08, 2024, 05:57:14 PM

Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:

I don't care too much, I'm more annoyed because as it runs out the experiment would have been better without bets under 1.25, imagine that, but no way in hell I'm going to change it and redo all the math and the bets. As for losses, those are minimal, it's 4$ for $100!

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Quote from: stompix on October 06, 2024, 01:45:10 PM

Updating this, the worst day of all!
- Olympique draw 1-1 at 1.25 odds
- Bayer draw at 1.11 odds
- Juventus draw at 1.44 odds
- Bayern 3-3 at 1.5

I missed one match being still live but Stuttgart is being led 0-1 at 1.33.
Right now we're looking at half of the matches being a loss, the worst round ever, going into red again!

Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:

Bayern drew Leverkusen at home
Lost to Aston Villa in the UCL for the first time in decades

After those underwhelming games, I expected them fo win even though I knew it wasn't going to be easy (Frankfurt didn't get to 3rd position playing like a mid). I saw bayern go 0-1 up and thought they'd just add more goals to their tally. Juventus too, underwhelming lately and rightly so because they always get punished with a red card.

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Quote from: stompix on October 08, 2024, 02:47:22 PM

There won't be a new round this week so taking this moment for a pause, much need, especially after a disappointing round. The next games are on the 18th, I hope I won't forget to place the bets, I will not put them now since the odds will surely change, there might be injuries in the Nations League that would influence he odds and I'm not going to deal with all that!

The result after 5 rounds of playing

- Individual bets balance -1.21
- Amount wagered on single bets 46
- Percentage loss 2.63%

- Multiplier balance +11.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 1
- Percentage win 131.8%

I would say the results are as expected, I would have gone for something like a 1-3% loss too after the first rounds, the multi-win was a fluke but, yeah it's gambling, so random things are expected to happen.

Nice update. I tried to find this thread manually the other day but couldn't, now I'll add it to my bookmarks.

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

stompix

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There won't be a new round this week so taking this moment for a pause, much need, especially after a disappointing round. The next games are on the 18th, I hope I won't forget to place the bets, I will not put them now since the odds will surely change, there might be injuries in the Nations League that would influence the odds and I'm not going to deal with all that!

The result after 5 rounds of playing

- Individual bets balance -1.21
- Amount wagered on single bets 46
- Percentage loss 2.63%

- Multiplier balance +11.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 1
- Percentage win 131.8%

I would say the results are as expected, I would have gone for something like a 1-3% loss too after the first rounds, the multi-win was a fluke but, yeah it's gambling, so random things are expected to happen.

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I'm tagging to see how it plays out but always betting the favorites is something that has been tried over and over. In the short term ypu can win a decent amount but all it takes is a good couple losses to set you too far back to come back from because of the low odds and payouts from your wins. Not a bad in and out strategy though in terms of a short term goal. Either way good luck to you.

stompix

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Updating this, the worst day of all!
- Olympique draw 1-1 at 1.25 odds
- Bayer draw at 1.11 odds
- Juventus draw at 1.44 odds
- Bayern 3-3 at 1.5

I missed one match being still live but Stuttgart is being led 0-1 at 1.33.
Right now we're looking at half of the matches being a loss, the worst round ever, going into red again!

stompix

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Time to update this for round 5:

-Napoli won, so we have a first in all matches being a win!!!! Roll Eyes

-We get a positive balance again for individual betting
-Believe it or not, we have a multi-win, which puts us in the green

Complete results after round 4:

- Individual bets balance +2.28
- Amount wagered on single bets 36
- Percentage win 6.3%

- Multiplier balance +12.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 4
- Percentage win 214.75%

*Note: The last multiplier could have been better if I had added Real and Barcelona to it, technically the same week, but not round, I anyhow missed the games and it would have only added 0.3 to it, it's a pain in the ass to calculate what if so I will just let it be like this.

Round 5:

I put this ticket on October 1st, yes some odds have changed but I'm not going to go through the trouble of correcting every single one of them when they exceed or go under 1.5, I like this experiment but with limits on the amount of work I have to put up with it.

stompix

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So one match to go and this is going to be funny if Napoli wins with Monza!

Previous results after round 3:

Total results:
- Individual bets balance -1.27
- Multiplier balance -3

We have to add to this 0.4 as Barcelona and Madrid won on Wednesday and Thursday but I wasn't online to add them!

Results for the current round:

As Roma 1.42
Napoli - TBD
PSG 1.41
Monaco 1.37
Arsenal 1.19
Liverpool 1.37
Dortmund 1.27
Leipzig 1.43
Milan 1.39

One match to go but it still changes everything
9 bets, returns 10.85 +1.85.

After 4 rounds
- Individual bets balance 0.98
- Multiplier balance TBD

- Amount wagered on single bets 36
- Percentage win 2.72%

Now in Napoli wins the multi turns profitable which is going to be a surpise

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Quote from: Hirose UK on September 29, 2024, 04:21:00 AM

Quote from: stompix on September 26, 2024, 01:49:05 PM

Quote from: viljy on September 24, 2024, 01:37:38 AM

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

Yes, at football that always has surprises, especially for the English League where often the lower teams can beat the top team but all this can't always happen because surprises can't be found every week and we are just someone who takes the risk to bet so when the favorite team loses then we have to accept it.
All opportunities are always good in the favorite team but it would be much riskier to take all the top teams from each league and make it multi bet, it would be better to take it in one particular League and all slip are taken from several team in one League which is clear never exceed the limit like betting with 5 to 10 team at once.
Every gambler must have experienced condition like that where taking favorite team that has an advantage on paper but at one time the team experienced failure and embarrassing defeat, that why I always say about not focusing too much on the superior team because in football anything can happen even though it is an unreasonable result.

Surely at most times it can seem very hard to determine a winning team between that of the favorite and the opponent, sometimes most of the players in our most preferred team may not be physically fit enough to bring out their best performance which can be unknowingly to us the gambler, those players are humans like us such their body might to have enough rest but due to duty calls, they will be out and might not be on their best performance that is fatigue hence, that is one among the reasons why sometimes a team you consider to be weaker team wins the the favorite team.

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Quote from: stompix on September 26, 2024, 01:49:05 PM

Quote from: viljy on September 24, 2024, 01:37:38 AM

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

Yes, at football that always has surprises, especially for the English League where often the lower teams can beat the top team but all this can't always happen because surprises can't be found every week and we are just someone who takes the risk to bet so when the favorite team loses then we have to accept it.
All opportunities are always good in the favorite team but it would be much riskier to take all the top teams from each league and make it multi bet, it would be better to take it in one particular League and all slip are taken from several team in one League which is clear never exceed the limit like betting with 5 to 10 team at once.
Every gambler must have experienced condition like that where taking favorite team that has an advantage on paper but at one time the team experienced failure and embarrassing defeat, that why I always say about not focusing too much on the superior team because in football anything can happen even though it is an unreasonable result.

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Quote from: Dewi Aries on September 24, 2024, 07:27:15 AM

Quote from: Samlucky O on September 22, 2024, 10:15:12 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 01:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 10:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money.

Being rich doesn't even guarantee owning a casino, atleast you must be well knowledgeable and have Passion about the kind of business you are about to embark on Before you can succeed, otherwise you might Start up so easily and end up suddenly. This has been the problem of most people who started but couldn't profit from it. For me I think no matter how profitable casino business is, not everyone can do it despite how rich some people can be.

stompix

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Quote from: viljy on September 24, 2024, 01:37:38 AM

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

SmartGold01

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Quote from: viljy on September 24, 2024, 01:37:38 AM

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

Indeed you are lucky because to me when I placed bet on draws it surely ends up the other way round were it would be 1:0 or 2:1 or 3:1 and 3-2. So instead I mostly choose either Over or Under, Home or Away sometimes first half under to win or over. I mostly ends up with it, so picking draws is likewise risky to bet on.

stompix

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So, a much needed update.
Atalanta lost but at the same time, Bayer scored in the 94th minute, I had them as a loss to suddenly turn green.
Due to a packed schedule, I missed two wins on this round in La Liga, they will be counted separately.

After this the round ended with:
Total bets 7, Wins 6.64, Loss 0.34

So next 9 matches till the end of the week excluding Real and Barcelona who have already won at lower odds.

Had to split the screenshot too long to zoom out:

9 bets, singlematches possible win is 12.24/ multi is 15.59.
The two previous results will be added to the total cause it was my fault for not adding them not the fault of the "strategy".

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Quote from: Samlucky O on September 22, 2024, 10:15:12 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 01:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 10:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money. Another thing is if you really want to continue to advance as a gambler and not become a dealer for some reason, then make sure that you have good skills in taking care of yourself and your finances, and also make sure that your expectations always look realistic in any type of game.

viljy

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Quote from: stompix on September 22, 2024, 10:55:00 AM

Quote from: viljy on September 22, 2024, 01:59:53 AM

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

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Quote from: Wakate on September 21, 2024, 01:43:47 PM

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets.

Yup, not just you but for sure most of gamblers experienced the same, thinking that betting with low odd either parlay or single will give them decent chance of winning, but upset always present when you are in gambling right?

Quote

We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate.

It helps but not an assurance for sure, using it as basis to anaylze the game and see if you've got the same findings but betting blindly and follow them directly that's something that really tough if you loseyour parlay.

Quote

Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

If you got that chance and you manage to cashout, that's a sure thing that you've got something after your bet.

fikrett

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Quote from: Samlucky O on September 22, 2024, 10:15:12 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 01:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 10:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

I totally agree there.
If it were that easy, everybody would try to do it, but you need lots, and I mean lots of connections, experts, knowledge, expertise yourself, and much, much more.
Though, it would be a good goal to achieve some day Grin

stompix

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Quote from: stompix on September 18, 2024, 08:37:58 AM

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

I knew it, and yes again I picked an extra game from the next round which will be discarded

Quote from: viljy on September 22, 2024, 01:59:53 AM

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 01:48:21 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 10:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4. (Read 2294 times)