Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4.

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

The trouble is you're only making small amounts, say 10% of the total you are risking, each time you bet. However you stand to lose 100% of your bet if you lose. Unless you think you can beat the analytics of the bookmaker, those companies that make hundreds of millions a year profit from accurately predicting outcomes over the long term, then there it sounds appealing but it really is not. Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

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Quote from: Bushdark on September 17, 2024, 10:25:21 AM

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 06:24:53 AM

Quote from: sompitonov on September 17, 2024, 04:36:52 AM

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions.

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 16, 2024, 11:26:16 AM

Quote from: stompix on September 12, 2024, 02:55:15 PM

~

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!

There are even variations of those one pound bet
- playing the martingale on teams, again taking advantage of the odds increasing in case you lose (wouldn't recommend)
- in horse racing going for a jockey trainer's age of the horse for example betting on Haggas and his horses on all weather is right now at -113 but still positive for turf.
- I don't watch NBA so I didn't understand but something about handicaps over +2, again backed by some 3 years of logs

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Quote from: sompitonov on September 17, 2024, 04:36:52 AM

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions.

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Quote from: sompitonov on September 17, 2024, 04:36:52 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 03:30:03 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on September 17, 2024, 02:50:27 AM

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

And I have a rather skeptical view, because I think that professionals in the bookmaker's office calculate the odds better than ordinary bettors, and it is difficult to beat them. And if someone manages to do this constantly, then the bookmaker will begin to behave dishonestly, constantly walking to the successful betting fan.
I have heard many stories about account blocking, as well as about the fact that the withdrawal of funds was very difficult.
Therefore, you should play only on large, proven bookmakers.

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Quote from: sompitonov on September 17, 2024, 04:36:52 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 03:30:03 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on September 17, 2024, 02:50:27 AM

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

Yes, but this requires long experience and a good understanding of the game in which we are going to do this. I still prefer high odds for one match in football or hockey, in which the odds are about 3 or higher, and I start thinking whether the underdog team will win 1 of 3 matches so that my bet will be in the black. If the answer is yes, then I place my bet. Of course, all this is very imaginary, but everyone chooses what to start from, I like these bets. And I don’t really like bets like OP’s and I don’t place them, in the end, everyone chooses their own strategy.

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Quote from: sompitonov on September 17, 2024, 04:36:52 AM

Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 03:30:03 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on September 17, 2024, 02:50:27 AM

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

All those factors are important as you can control your emotions once you established your strategy, those kinds of picks most of the time are based with detail information about those teams or squad that will be competing, knowing their capabilities gives you hints that you might use to select which games to bet and what are those parlay that will give you decent opportunity to win, though small odds when putting together and if luck permits then it's a decent benefits.

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Quote from: Tungbulu on September 17, 2024, 03:30:03 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on September 17, 2024, 02:50:27 AM

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

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Quote from: Fredomago on September 17, 2024, 02:50:27 AM

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

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Quote from: Samlucky O on September 17, 2024, 01:05:33 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 05:39:23 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5" so anything less than that could lead to possible lost. But then I can't be sure because most times these teams are crazy. What i does is that, I often choose teams that score above 'Over 1.5, and 2.5' with this it's very much easier at least picked two to four matches. But still the same if you are pretty much cool with your selection then let's watch how it goes.

In which ever way you try to predict it, gambling is by luck. Your own prediction may be riskier than his own strategy. Because if he plays under 1.5odd, the risk may be lesser to your own. while in other words your over 1.8 or 2.5 like 4 or 5 selection may likely be riskier than his own lesser odd because the higher the accumulation with high odd the more chances of losing over win. But that doesn't mean that small odd doesn't burst ticket. You may just play a single stake of 2.5 odd with a reasonable amount instead of multiplying risk.

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

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Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 05:39:23 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5" so anything less than that could lead to possible lost. But then I can't be sure because most times these teams are crazy. What i does is that, I often choose teams that score above 'Over 1.5, and 2.5' with this it's very much easier at least picked two to four matches. But still the same if you are pretty much cool with your selection then let's watch how it goes.

In which ever way you try to predict it, gambling is by luck. Your own prediction may be riskier than his own strategy. Because if he plays under 1.5odd, the risk may be lesser to your own. while in other words your over 1.8 or 2.5 like 4 or 5 selection may likely be riskier than his own lesser odd because the higher the accumulation with high odd the more chances of losing over win. But that doesn't mean that small odd doesn't burst ticket. You may just play a single stake of 2.5 odd with a reasonable amount instead of multiplying risk.

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Quote from: stompix on September 16, 2024, 08:36:58 AM

Tree of Liberty went to post at 1/25, this is 1.04 odds, with an official rating of 144, and lost to the single other horse running with a rating of 98.
So, top this Grin

I am curious if you are continuing to place bets in low-odds matches, given that you may have started to realize what will happen at the end. Some other members and I think it might end up negative. But if you want to continue experimenting, it's up to you. But I would say that the final result is pretty much obvious.

I want to mention another thing: I have seen a scam accusation thread where the victim said that the casino refused to pay him because he was placing bets on low odds. I don't think Stake is going to do that. If I am not wrong, that platform was rollbit. I didn't follow up on that thread, so I am not sure if that guy was able to withdraw his funds or not. The bottom line is, even if you get success in the experiment, probably it won't work on every sportsbook.

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Quote from: Makus on September 16, 2024, 01:46:10 PM

Just as you've said, odds are basically set by the bookies based on the possibility of winning or losing the game which is determined by the current form of both team. In other word odds are as a result of bookies prediction. Football is a game were result can change within the wrinkle of an eye, and the least thought for consideration could become the reality of the day. Selection small odds has no guarantee that you'll be wining the game, but it keeps you in a less risky position for your bets to be won. However i prefer going for small odds than betting on bigs odds because majority of my wins are from small odd selected games out together.

It's quite simple. The games or rather game outcomes that have a higher likelihood of happening usually comes with smaller odds since based on team and statistics the risk on betting on that particular possibility is low relative to an opposite possibility or other possibilities like a draw game. If a very good team plays against a team with very low stats, the betting odds for the good team will be very small when compared to the team that's of a lower winning stats.

Similarly you will notice that if both teams are good the odds of getting a draw in that game will be smaller and the difference between a draw and that of any the two teams winning won't be large. As a gambler you have to understand these simple logics because if you bet based on the size of the odds you will likely lose majority of the games you place.

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Quote from: Mate2237 on September 16, 2024, 09:51:17 AM

I have come to realize that even low odds are not really safe because it's all risky. If you allow small odds to entice you it would make you lose as an active gambler. There are people that have staked millions on low odds and lost the bet. To me odds are just ideas on which team has the highest potential of winning which is sometimes misleading, instead of just playing by the odds do a deep dive and play according to analysis, this way you can at least try to give yourself a little leverage over the bookmakers

Just as you've said, odds are basically set by the bookies based on the possibility of winning or losing the game which is determined by the current form of both team. In other word odds are as a result of bookies prediction. Football is a game were result can change within the wrinkle of an eye, and the least thought for consideration could become the reality of the day. Selection small odds has no guarantee that you'll be wining the game, but it keeps you in a less risky position for your bets to be won. However i prefer going for small odds than betting on bigs odds because majority of my wins are from small odd selected games out together.

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Quote from: stompix on September 12, 2024, 02:55:15 PM

It's not really a hidden strategy, for years most top teams have proven that are profitable on constant betting, it has worked for Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern, there are tons of people doing this for years, I just grabbed the first model from a forum as an example:

Bookies can't do much about this as the odds reflect the form, if they would lower too much then it would mean too big odds on handicaps for the other team so they just go along with it, it's not a very profitable scheme, it looks a lot of capital and there are just a few teams with which you can play, you're barely beating the stock market but yes, it's positive.

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!

6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0 7.98

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

I have come to realize that even low odds are not really safe because it's all risky. If you allow small odds to entice you it would make you lose as an active gambler. There are people that have staked millions on low odds and lost the bet. To me odds are just ideas on which team has the highest potential of winning which is sometimes misleading, instead of just playing by the odds do a deep dive and play according to analysis, this way you can at least try to give yourself a little leverage over the bookmakers

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So update on round 2

Round 2 results
- Individual bets balance -1.2
- Multiplier balance -1

Total results
- Individual bets balance -0.93
- Multiplier balance -2
- Amount wagered on single bets 17
- Pecentage loss -5.4%
- Amount wagered on multi -2
- Percentage loss 100%

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 16, 2024, 04:30:06 AM

Quote from: stompix on September 15, 2024, 08:32:16 AM

~

I share your view about the series of events but I don't seem to 100% understand you and you are mixing some points up. You need to know that bookies consider lots of factors before resulting in certain odds for teams and not only about the goals scored though it's one of the factors, unless you are referring to that as one of the factors in an example way.

It's exactly my point, if the bookie considers these factors before publishing the bets it means that they are also off by a factor, right, since the low odds they publish are also wrong, basically what this experiment will also prove on top of that is that despite their reputation they also gamble a lot when doing those, a ton of shots in the dark just like the rest of us!

Quote from: Learn Bitcoin on September 15, 2024, 11:17:27 PM

I have experience in losing a bet under 1.1 odds because soccer is a minute game. A single minute can change the game. Imagine I bet for a team already in the lead, and it's last minute. I will lose my bet if the opponent scores at the last minute.

Tree of Liberty went to post at 1/25, this is 1.04 odds, with an official rating of 144, and lost to the single other horse running with a rating of 98.
So, top this Grin

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Quote from: TribalBob on September 14, 2024, 08:50:43 AM

innovative betting experiments can be used as a reference for me, because honestly I just found out about it, I just found your thread, hopefully I don't miss your betting results
your chances of winning will definitely be there but I don't know how big it will be successful

It is interesting, though, many point out that the returns would be small, and the risks - too high.
Nevertheless, it's still interesting to watch the results for yourself, indefinitely.
There is no perfect strat in gambling or in sports betting, as Josefjix said.

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Quote from: stompix on September 15, 2024, 08:32:16 AM

Again it's a matter of how many times at what odds!
If a team scores 5 times in a row the odds for it will be low, if it gets destroyed after that series by the one last placed its odds would instantly go up, this is less about an event and more about a series of events, you can't argue that the bookie make the odds and at the same time they are better yet losing on them, we could change this and bet against the favorite then each time, it would be inevitable that at one point a team would bring the gains and another the losses.

I share your view about the series of events but I don't seem to 100% understand you and you are mixing some points up. You need to know that bookies consider lots of factors before resulting in certain odds for teams and not only about the goals scored though it's one of the factors, unless you are referring to that as one of the factors in an example way.

The feats of the teams are collectively weighted having considered their past and present statuses and this automatically assigns a low odd to the stronger team and a high odd for the lower ones, scoring alone can't do that but overall considerations of qualities and past results. This naturally gives clues to the chances of the team winning as said in the last post and has been so useful for me to personally know the weak and the strong teams because my analysis often agrees with the odds of bookies, except in some situations where the strength/chance of the teams are close. However, I will never consider betting against the favourite, it's all about the analysis and what it eventually guides me to do. I then manage my portfolio rightly in case the unforeseen happens.

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4. (Read 1610 times)