Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4.

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 06:11:13 AM

It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!

6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0 7.98

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

If there was a "strategy" here then the bookmakers would already have locked it down and made it unprofitable. If you imagine that 1.01 bets are what you might consider guaranteed and 2.0 bets are a coin flip with 50/50 on you winning, you might think that 1.5 is relatively safe but in my experience it is not. Keep in mind that bookmakers will have added a hidden buffer error margin into each bet, so you see 1.5 but the bookmaker really considers it a 1.4. If you do insist on trialing this strategy it would definitely be worth shopping around and seeing whether any sites offer different odds, because over time all those 0.05 differences can really add up and if variance is on your side, lead to bigger profits.

Perfectbaby

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Quote from: stompix on September 11, 2024, 02:35:58 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 10:54:32 AM

adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

I actually never planned on experimenting with the multiplier, I would be surprised if it wins even once in all the rounds and that maybe with 4-5 picks, not 12 as this round.

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 10:54:32 AM

Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

I actually find that useful, too many times I have been overconfident on a thing and would have taken bets on multiple stuff for the same game, handicap, half-time winner, so on, this way I can focus on the value per bet.

Quote from: Su-asa on September 11, 2024, 10:47:06 AM

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful.

A bit the point of the experiment, low odds sure look as safer but it takes one misstep out of four and you're back in red, the feeling of betting on a more probable event doesn't really reflect in the risks and the returns, a motive why I run this over multiple leagues and matches as I'm pretty sure at the end even if it turns out to be green the revenue compared to the amount bet and the time and effort would look like not worth it in my opinion.

It's just okay for the single bet instead of multiplier and this is a very hard type to bet on and there possibility to lose them is extremely high. But since it was for an experiment purpose I think each week or days you can for the league you choose and run your test to see how it goes but however, wouldn't you think of running a long term game with multiplier to have a higher pay out?

stompix

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Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 10:54:32 AM

adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

I actually never planned on experimenting with the multiplier, I would be surprised if it wins even once in all the rounds and that maybe with 4-5 picks, not 12 as this round.

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 10:54:32 AM

Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

I actually find that useful, too many times I have been overconfident on a thing and would have taken bets on multiple stuff for the same game, handicap, half-time winner, so on, this way I can focus on the value per bet.

Quote from: Su-asa on September 11, 2024, 10:47:06 AM

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful.

A bit the point of the experiment, low odds sure look as safer but it takes one misstep out of four and you're back in red, the feeling of betting on a more probable event doesn't really reflect in the risks and the returns, a motive why I run this over multiple leagues and matches as I'm pretty sure at the end even if it turns out to be green the revenue compared to the amount bet and the time and effort would look like not worth it in my opinion.

bitbollo

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adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

this is a well-known aspect to bookmakers Roll Eyes

in fact they "randomly" give bonuses if you play a certain number of events in the same bet ... Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

Su-asa

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 08:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful. I then adopted this method you mentioned which is aiming to get 100 percent of my stake but I prefer to play 2 odds of just a single game instead of multiple, I think it's better that way

stompix

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After a week's break due to UEFA nations, here is this round pick, with no less than 12 matches with a favorite under 1.50, and yes Bayer shows at 1.51 but it was 1.5 when I picked so it stays

As decided previously there will be two modes, on individual games, so 12 matches that will reward you 16 for 12 bet.

multiplier, a 39x if you get all of them right

Curent balance is
single betting +0.27
multibet -1

FortuneFollower

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Interesting. Looking forward to the results, but it seems that most tell you to go into the long run and not push for victories each time Grin

Either way, I hope for you to find your golden strat!

stompix

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So the first week is over:

Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg 2-0 +1.21
Napoli - Parma 2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid -7-0 Shocked

+1.26
Real - Betis 2-0 +1.30

Betting 5 units, return 5.27, profits 0.27
Multiplier is a loss, -1

Long way to go till next week but the next round in the premier league will be insane, close to 5 matches qualifying for this, Manchester, Liverpool, Brighton, Crystal and Aston Villa are close to 1.5

Counting up to 11 possible matches under 1.5 for the leagues!

stompix

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Arsenal - Brighton 1-1 -1
Bayern - Freiburg - to be played
Napoli - Parma 2-1 +1.5
Barcelona - Valladolid -7-0 Shocked

+1.26
Real - Betis to be played

I will remove the Dortmund match from this week's play because d'oh I didn't realize I put the bet on the r3 match, I will add it to the next one!

So, the multiplier for week 1 is a loss so -1
Individual games are -0.24 with 3 out of 5

If the two games go well it will be 5% return if they go wrong, well, that's it!

Quote from: alani123 on August 30, 2024, 06:59:31 PM

Speaking from experience I have to say that when you make these betting slips your goal should never be to win every time.

I took this as an experiment, my take is actually to disprove of low odds being safe even on longer runs so I I'm not expecting to win a thing, more like I am trying to prove that so-called 'safe" bets are not safe at all.

Funny enough I've tried the same experiments during the weekend with horse racing:

11/12 wins, exactly when I was trying to say that betting on the favorite is bad, but it was a festival day when horses you know almost all about them run! Anyhow, at under 6/4 odds even 11 wins seems like too much effort for to little, and I would never risk putting tens on such things.

alani123

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Speaking from experience I have to say that when you make these betting slips your goal should never be to win every time. You are in it for the long game and for example of your target is a multiplier of 8x every time, then you must win more than 1/8th of your betting slips. So if you were to bet x amount per day, when in a day you make such bets you can divide your bets in multiple bet slips. You could even include one match on different combinations so long as you hit the desired multiplier.

Russlenat

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Quote from: bering on August 30, 2024, 04:11:49 PM

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

bering

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I have done using this method plenty and sometimes it works well but quite often too i lost my bets and what i am done is similar to you that make double bets with stick to the big teams and the odds probably will be increases because you were combine several matches into your bets but automatically the risk to lost your bets also increases because if there is one team who lost or draw then your bets will be failed and last time i did this method on Europa League few days ago but i was failed

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 08:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

This makes true of the fact that no strategy is completely certain in gambling, some strategy works sometimes and the other time it doesn't hence it's not any certain at any point that a particular game turns out the way we have anticipated and expected of it because ordinarily gambling is mostly about predictions and probability.

Whenever a certain strategy is working well, it's usually best to make the best of it and whenever it's failing make sure to exit using such synergy quick enough so you don't get stucked already.

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Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 08:07:39 AM

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.

ajiz138

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A good betting odds experiment I would like to know the outcome of. Wink

Honestly, in parlay betting it is a bit more difficult even though we choose the favorite team especially more sometimes there is a surprise where the favorite team does not win, I am not brave enough for more than 5 matches to parlay.

Except for single bets, this is still possible for me to do actually every week, often choosing odds of 1.5 with a single bet of 5 different matches, the results are 3 wins 2 losses, not all of them will lose.

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Quote from: YOSHIE on August 30, 2024, 08:07:39 AM

Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 06:11:13 AM

Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.

I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

Hmm, this is really an interesting pick my friend and I think I like it a lot although am not sure for the Dortmund game but I think I see the reason why, their opponent is actually doing very well and they seem to play a very powerful football even with their game yesterday and for the Napoli game well I couldn't agree more just that I feel its likely going to be a draw atleast because I know Napoli are in very deep shit and their form is absolutely down and I really don't expect them to win but hey it's football who can be sure of anything?

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Quote from: _act_ on August 30, 2024, 09:37:13 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on August 30, 2024, 09:22:38 AM

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

Over 0.5 is betting options and the odd is around 1.01 to 1.10 odds, while over 1.5 is about 1.20-1.30 odd. Most of the time over 0.5 HT is above 1.5 odds to 1.80 odds, while Over 1 is almost 2.5 odds where as over in FT the odds aren't the same. The FH usually have lot of higher odds this depends on the gambling site you are using as there odds aren't the same it differs from every casinos.

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 08:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

On which sports do you bet ? I mostly follow cricket and it is hard to get over 2.0 odds bets. There are many bets under 2 like 1.4, 1.7 etc and they are good to take them and win.
When you take the bet over two, don't you think that the chances of winning decreases considerably as the bookies will not give you the higher odds on the favourite teams ? And betting on weak teams may increase your odds but will decrease you chances of winning.

shield132

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My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Jawhead999

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Although you always bet the favorite, but all of them aren't safe especially those three matches:

Real Madrid draw 2 from 3 match.
Napoli was lose against mediocre team.
Both Arsenal and Brighton are in shape.

Make sure you don't bet in Chelsea and Manchester United match or you will regret. Grin

But, let's see how it goes, maybe luck will be on your side in this week. Cheesy

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 4. (Read 1077 times)