Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 5.

Josefjix

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Quote from: stompix on September 14, 2024, 08:26:22 AM

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 14, 2024, 08:13:12 AM

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

This is the point of the experiment, can top team beat the odds or not!?
Bookies offer odds, but they don't offer really chances for it more like risks for gains percentages, if those were really chances you could go by all results and turn the whole thing into a predetermined outcome, bookies have no way of dealing with you a blow if Madrid for example goes on a rampage and beats every single team in the championship, and if they fail once in such a streak the odds for the next match after a failure would definitely pick up.

There is no perfect strategy in gambling, especially in sports betting; it all depends on what you want. If you're trying to build a balance, picking bookies' favorites with a good stake amount is the right strategy; no risk is taken. However, if you already have a good balance, you can always try a more risky odds parlay with a minimum stake once in a while; it doesn't always come, but when it does, it covers all initial losses.

I enjoy betting on bookies' favorites, but anything less than 1.40 odd is a waste of time for me. Football has changed, bookies' favorites struggle, and there are always upsets, but it is still a better strategy to accumulate profits..

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Quote from: Makus on September 15, 2024, 06:05:41 PM

Liverpool losing to Nottingham Forrest was really odd, considering their current form and unbeaten or conceiving record for a while now. No one actually expected that. Odds which can sometimes help in determining the form or the outcome of the match failed in their game with Nottingham forest, analysis also failed. These days I've been making small odds selection and I sum it up to 4 or 2 odds, yet there is still a single loss all the time. And that is another reason to prove that both small and huge odds can still change your bet status to loss. The best way to gamble is reducing your stake so you don't get affected if anything other than your predictions happens.

Sincerely a vst majority didn't see that coming and even the bookies had taught they would be able to win as it reflected in their odds, if it were to be like a few knew Liverpool was going to loose this game,then most casinos should be paying through their nose now but the odds for Liverpool was small. Now it's important to understand the concept behind odds that they are only assigned according to the expectations and projections of the bookies to fair degree to attract gamblers there by making us understand that there's no degree to accuracy or assurance arising from this odds allocated as theya re only the reflection of the bookies taughts so anything can still happen, you can follow your guys at some point, who knows they may be wright.

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 15, 2024, 02:30:41 AM

Quote from: stompix on September 14, 2024, 08:26:22 AM

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 14, 2024, 08:13:12 AM

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

This is the point of the experiment, can the top team beat the odds or not!?

This is still the same thing but in a different format. The top team will beat the odds more times but luck is also needed here because no matter how better a team is against the other, there is always a time when the underdogs win which will ruin the party. A good example was yesterday when Nottm Forest beat Liverpool in their home, Nottm Forest of all teams? This rarely happens. However, some underdogs' wins are even more rampant than this, so it's not a matter of certainty win for the top team even if their chance of winning is high.

Quote

Bookies offer odds, but they don't offer really chances for it more like risks for gains percentages, if those were really chances you could go by all results and turn the whole thing into a predetermined outcome, bookies have no way of dealing with you a blow if Madrid for example goes on a rampage and beats every single team in the championship, and if they fail once in such a streak the odds for the next match after a failure would definitely pick up.

Just like anyone who knows how to analyse matches and the possible outcome very well, they would have known the possible odds of bookies on matches depending on the distinction of strength/weakness of the meeting teams. For this, it is an automatic way of knowing the chance of winning or losing of either of the teams, so invariable, those with low odds have the higher chance of winning especially if your analysis agrees with the odds of bookies, so technically they (bookies) has already hinted the chance of winning with the odds.

Liverpool losing to Nottingham Forrest was really odd, considering their current form and unbeaten or conceiving record for a while now. No one actually expected that. Odds which can sometimes help in determining the form or the outcome of the match failed in their game with Nottingham forest, analysis also failed. These days I've been making small odds selection and I sum it up to 4 or 2 odds, yet there is still a single loss all the time. And that is another reason to prove that both small and huge odds can still change your bet status to loss. The best way to gamble is reducing your stake so you don't get affected if anything other than your predictions happens.

stompix

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Two matches still to go but I won't be able to watch them tonight so this is the stats right now, hope I got everything right

Liverpool -1
Manchester City +1.19
Brighton -1
Aston Villa +1.50
Atletico TBD
Borussia +1.38
Leipzig -1
Bayern +1.26
Bayer +1.51
Ac Milan +1.31
Inter TBD
PSG +1.30

Total gambled 12 Current Returs 9.45 Loss 2.55
Even if both teams tonight win the return would be 0.10

If anything it looks like a way to increase your roll!

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 15, 2024, 02:30:41 AM

This is still the same thing but in a different format. The top team will beat the odds more times but luck is also needed here because no matter how better a team is against the other, there is always a time when the underdogs win which will ruin the party.

Again it's a matter of how many times at what odds!
If a team scores 5 times in a row the odds for it will be low, if it gets destroyed after that series by the one last placed its odds would instantly go up, this is less about an event and more about a series of events, you can't argue that the bookie make the odds and at the same time they are better yet losing on them, we could change this and bet against the favorite then each time, it would be inevitable that at one point a team would bring the gains and another the losses.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: stompix on September 14, 2024, 08:26:22 AM

Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 14, 2024, 08:13:12 AM

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

This is the point of the experiment, can the top team beat the odds or not!?

This is still the same thing but in a different format. The top team will beat the odds more times but luck is also needed here because no matter how better a team is against the other, there is always a time when the underdogs win which will ruin the party. A good example was yesterday when Nottm Forest beat Liverpool in their home, Nottm Forest of all teams? This rarely happens. However, some underdogs' wins are even more rampant than this, so it's not a matter of certainty win for the top team even if their chance of winning is high.

Quote

Bookies offer odds, but they don't offer really chances for it more like risks for gains percentages, if those were really chances you could go by all results and turn the whole thing into a predetermined outcome, bookies have no way of dealing with you a blow if Madrid for example goes on a rampage and beats every single team in the championship, and if they fail once in such a streak the odds for the next match after a failure would definitely pick up.

Just like anyone who knows how to analyse matches and the possible outcome very well, they would have known the possible odds of bookies on matches depending on the distinction of strength/weakness of the meeting teams. For this, it is an automatic way of knowing the chance of winning or losing of either of the teams, so invariable, those with low odds have the higher chance of winning especially if your analysis agrees with the odds of bookies, so technically they (bookies) has already hinted the chance of winning with the odds.

TribalBob

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innovative betting experiments can be used as a reference for me, because honestly I just found out about it, I just found your thread, hopefully I don't miss your betting results
your chances of winning will definitely be there but I don't know how big it will be successful

stompix

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on September 14, 2024, 08:13:12 AM

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

This is the point of the experiment, can top team beat the odds or not!?
Bookies offer odds, but they don't offer really chances for it more like risks for gains percentages, if those were really chances you could go by all results and turn the whole thing into a predetermined outcome, bookies have no way of dealing with you a blow if Madrid for example goes on a rampage and beats every single team in the championship, and if they fail once in such a streak the odds for the next match after a failure would definitely pick up.
I posted earlier a graph on what would constant betting do for a team, this is about seeing what betting on odds would do for those, although I'm a pessimist I think it would be really close.

Back to the thing, only one match got solved Borussia to win at 1.38, and 3 matches are on Sunday evening, no point in doing any math till then.

EarnOnVictor

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I believe the same result will happen in every aspect of sports betting because the odds of each bet are carefully considered by the bookies before offering them, you need more than expertise or a high chance of winning for you to win the bets whose odds are close to 1, they are not just worth it.

You can only be successful in them if you are consistent with the winning but if you are not, a single loss will ruin the party. Imagine, if you bet three matches with 1.3 odds, it will take a single loss to clear all your 3 initial winnings, and it will take you 3 winnings to meet up with a single loss, so how convenient is that? The right risk management is not included in this kind of low-odd betting so I try as much as possible to avoid them.

However, I am referring to independent betting tickets, if it were to be a combined ticket like you showed in the OP, well, it's possible you win more through the odds accumulation, but you should also know that you've increased the risk of the bet automatically because it's a single ticket, all those games are dependent of each other.

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Quote from: Wiwo on September 11, 2024, 03:43:45 PM

Quote from: Russlenat on August 30, 2024, 05:50:13 PM

Quote from: bering on August 30, 2024, 03:11:49 PM

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

The thing there is that, any bet can lose or win regardless of the odds and which team is playing, and the higher the number of games selection the higher the risk of losing at that game, and that is why we should be ready for whatever outcome that Comes from our bets.

And if we win, the first thing to note is that, your winning is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you can repeat the same level of winning in your next bet, so don't get carried away to believe that you can have a pattern of betting or a safe betting zone that guarantees winnings.

Gambling always poses risk and those who win from their bets are those who dare to take the risk even though increased risk can occur with all betting methods like this, but remember that the best are those who can accept the risk and are able to learn from every failure.

Yes, there is no guarantee of victory or security and in betting even though we feel we are in comfort zone because choosing favorite team is not necessarily successful in the long term because in sports there are often surprises and this is what always makes gamblers fail.
In the same context, I quite curious because the discussion here previously was almost the same as the discussion in another thread as stated by OP about the betting thread with odds below 1.5 on the favorite team.
I tried it but not with the choice of victory for the favorite team but preferred the Asian Total option, choosing Over in the smallest number or Under with the largest number, this will give really small odds but the chances can be very good for increasing success.
It just that I think every gambler will have their own way and of course they won't necessarily be able to consider this the best.

tread93

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Quote from: _act_ on August 30, 2024, 05:38:44 AM

As the betting slip is getting long as you accumulate more, the chance to win will be reducing. It might not be in this bet but other bets. I guess going for 1.5 weekly would be good. You can get that from 2 or 3 matches.

I like the match that you selected this week but I do not think this would be good in long term. I will keep following this thread and see the results.

This is a good thread.

I salute you for trying new strategies and also giving it a rough go posting all the results publicly. Keep it up m8 and I wish you the best of luck with your picks and hope that you win Grin

stompix

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Quote from: Fortify on September 11, 2024, 03:12:25 PM

If there was a "strategy" here then the bookmakers would already have locked it down and made it unprofitable. If you imagine that 1.01 bets are what you might consider guaranteed and 2.0 bets are a coin flip with 50/50 on you winning, you might think that 1.5 is relatively safe but in my experience it is not.

It's not really a hidden strategy, for years most top teams have proven that are profitable on constant betting, it has worked for Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern, there are tons of people doing this for years, I just grabbed the first model from a forum as an example:

Bookies can't do much about this as the odds reflect the form, if they would lower too much then it would mean too big odds on handicaps for the other team so they just go along with it, it's not a very profitable scheme, it looks a lot of capital and there are just a few teams with which you can play, you're barely beating the stock market but yes, it's positive.

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Quote from: Wiwo on September 11, 2024, 03:43:45 PM

Quote from: Russlenat on August 30, 2024, 05:50:13 PM

Quote from: bering on August 30, 2024, 03:11:49 PM

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

The thing there is that, any bet can lose or win regardless of the odds and which team is playing, and the higher the number of games selection the higher the risk of losing at that game, and that is why we should be ready for whatever outcome that Comes from our bets.

And if we win, the first thing to note is that, your winning is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you can repeat the same level of winning in your next bet, so don't get carried away to believe that you can have a pattern of betting or a safe betting zone that guarantees winnings.

I think there is, if you keep using the pattern which stompix is using then you will be on track for the long run because I have seen that using that method give less risk of losing bet. Yes we know that winning is based on chance and probability but there are some low odds game that gives quick winning.

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Quote from: Russlenat on August 30, 2024, 05:50:13 PM

Quote from: bering on August 30, 2024, 03:11:49 PM

Your pick seems quite safe but i am a bit worried about Napoli because their opponent is Parma and although Parma is promotion team but i highly doubt Parma will be easily to beat because this team is on fire and in the last 2 matches Parma have been met 2 strong opponents in Serie A Fiorentina and AC Milan but Parma can stole points from this teams even they can win from AC Milan

We can only think it’s safe based on our personal perception, but in general, there’s no such thing as safety in gambling. OP’s experiment is still unproven and needs more bets to determine if it’s a working method or not. However, I suspect this method might still lose in the long run, but let’s give it a try. Maybe I’m wrong, and if that turns out to be the case, I wouldn’t hesitate to follow what OP is doing.

The thing there is that, any bet can lose or win regardless of the odds and which team is playing, and the higher the number of games selection the higher the risk of losing at that game, and that is why we should be ready for whatever outcome that Comes from our bets.

And if we win, the first thing to note is that, your winning is based on luck and there is no guarantee that you can repeat the same level of winning in your next bet, so don't get carried away to believe that you can have a pattern of betting or a safe betting zone that guarantees winnings.

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Quote from: stompix on August 30, 2024, 05:11:13 AM

It all started from this thread with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win (odds from Stake Wink

)
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!

6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0 7.98

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

If there was a "strategy" here then the bookmakers would already have locked it down and made it unprofitable. If you imagine that 1.01 bets are what you might consider guaranteed and 2.0 bets are a coin flip with 50/50 on you winning, you might think that 1.5 is relatively safe but in my experience it is not. Keep in mind that bookmakers will have added a hidden buffer error margin into each bet, so you see 1.5 but the bookmaker really considers it a 1.4. If you do insist on trialing this strategy it would definitely be worth shopping around and seeing whether any sites offer different odds, because over time all those 0.05 differences can really add up and if variance is on your side, lead to bigger profits.

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Quote from: stompix on September 11, 2024, 01:35:58 PM

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 09:54:32 AM

adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

I actually never planned on experimenting with the multiplier, I would be surprised if it wins even once in all the rounds and that maybe with 4-5 picks, not 12 as this round.

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 09:54:32 AM

Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

I actually find that useful, too many times I have been overconfident on a thing and would have taken bets on multiple stuff for the same game, handicap, half-time winner, so on, this way I can focus on the value per bet.

Quote from: Su-asa on September 11, 2024, 09:47:06 AM

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful.

A bit the point of the experiment, low odds sure look as safer but it takes one misstep out of four and you're back in red, the feeling of betting on a more probable event doesn't really reflect in the risks and the returns, a motive why I run this over multiple leagues and matches as I'm pretty sure at the end even if it turns out to be green the revenue compared to the amount bet and the time and effort would look like not worth it in my opinion.

It's just okay for the single bet instead of multiplier and this is a very hard type to bet on and there possibility to lose them is extremely high. But since it was for an experiment purpose I think each week or days you can for the league you choose and run your test to see how it goes but however, wouldn't you think of running a long term game with multiplier to have a higher pay out?

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Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 09:54:32 AM

adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

I actually never planned on experimenting with the multiplier, I would be surprised if it wins even once in all the rounds and that maybe with 4-5 picks, not 12 as this round.

Quote from: bitbollo on September 11, 2024, 09:54:32 AM

Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

I actually find that useful, too many times I have been overconfident on a thing and would have taken bets on multiple stuff for the same game, handicap, half-time winner, so on, this way I can focus on the value per bet.

Quote from: Su-asa on September 11, 2024, 09:47:06 AM

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful.

A bit the point of the experiment, low odds sure look as safer but it takes one misstep out of four and you're back in red, the feeling of betting on a more probable event doesn't really reflect in the risks and the returns, a motive why I run this over multiple leagues and matches as I'm pretty sure at the end even if it turns out to be green the revenue compared to the amount bet and the time and effort would look like not worth it in my opinion.

bitbollo

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adding events that have low odds does not make the finale multi bet easier (given the odds of the individual bets).

this is a well-known aspect to bookmakers Roll Eyes

in fact they "randomly" give bonuses if you play a certain number of events in the same bet ... Meanwhile they do everything to encourage players to bet as many events as possible together.
have you ever noticed that it is not possible to play as a multiple results related to the same event? Roll Eyes

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Quote from: Maslate on August 30, 2024, 07:02:33 AM

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

A lot of us into the system have tried this system and failed but perhaps he has a way of making his selections. I remember when I was focused on playing 1.30 odds three times a week just for it to be accumulatively 2 odds a week but in as much as I was trying to reduce the risks by playing smaller odds it was still unsuccessful. I then adopted this method you mentioned which is aiming to get 100 percent of my stake but I prefer to play 2 odds of just a single game instead of multiple, I think it's better that way

stompix

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After a week's break due to UEFA nations, here is this round pick, with no less than 12 matches with a favorite under 1.50, and yes Bayer shows at 1.51 but it was 1.5 when I picked so it stays

As decided previously there will be two modes, on individual games, so 12 matches that will reward you 16 for 12 bet.

multiplier, a 39x if you get all of them right

Curent balance is
single betting +0.27
multibet -1

FortuneFollower

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Interesting. Looking forward to the results, but it seems that most tell you to go into the long run and not push for victories each time Grin

Either way, I hope for you to find your golden strat!

Topic: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues - page 5. (Read 1585 times)