As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.
I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!
Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!
Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:
I don't care too much, I'm more annoyed because as it runs out the experiment would have been better without bets under 1.25, imagine that, but no way in hell I'm going to change it and redo all the math and the bets. As for losses, those are minimal, it's 4$ for $100!